- 1 FC Koln vs Union Berlin: 14 league goals between them, and a market expecting a lot more
- 2 FC Koln: unbeaten at home, but missing their main striker
- 3 Union Berlin: three games unbeaten since Munich, built on conceding almost nothing
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Koln vs Union Berlin
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Koln vs Union Berlin: 14 league goals between them, and a market expecting a lot more 
Union Berlin have scored six goals in seven Bundesliga games this season, and Koln have managed eight. On Tuesday night the two sides meet at the RheinEnergieStadion in the second round of the DFB-Pokal, and the betting has been priced as though those numbers belonged to two other teams.
Kick-off is 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 27 October. It’s the first cup meeting between the clubs in 21 competitive games, and a draw after 90 minutes means extra time and, if needed, penalties. They face each other again in Berlin at the weekend in the league, so both coaches are really planning for two matches in five days rather than one.
The table explains why neither of them can treat this as a night off. Koln are 11th on eight points, with two wins, two draws and three defeats. Union are 17th on six points, ahead of only Borussia Monchengladbach, and their goal difference of minus 12 is the worst in the division.
That minus 12 needs some context. Seven of the 18 league goals Union have conceded came in a single afternoon, the 7-0 defeat at Bayern Munich on 18 September. Since then Mauro Lustrinelli’s side have gone three league games unbeaten, taking five points with two goals scored and one conceded.
Koln have been just as tight lately. Saturday’s 0-0 with Schalke stretched their unbeaten home run in the league to four games, and across the last three competitive matches of both clubs combined, only seven goals have been scored in six games.
Bookmakers make Koln favourites at 1.80, with the draw at 3.78 and Union at 4.03. They also price over 2.5 goals at 1.61, which implies a fairly open game. I think that second price is the one that’s wrong, and both team sections below point the same way.
FC Koln: unbeaten at home, but missing their main striker 
Rene Wagner’s side haven’t lost a league game in Cologne this season. The draw with Schalke showed how they’ve gone about it: Koln created the better chances, finishing with 1.27 expected goals to Schalke’s 0.64, and still didn’t score.
Said El Mala was their most dangerous player. He forced a save from Loris Karius after 17 minutes and put the rebound narrowly wide, Isak Johannesson had a tap-in ruled out for offside, and Satoshi Tanaka hit the outside of the post with 11 minutes left. Karius was voted man of the match, his fourth such award of the season.
The lack of goals is partly about who isn’t available. Thijs Dallinga is out long-term with a cruciate ligament injury, Imad Rondic isn’t expected back from a thigh problem until early November, and Ragnar Ache is doubtful with a muscle issue. That leaves Marius Bulter and El Mala carrying most of the attacking load.
There are holes further back too. Timo Hubers and Ellyes Skhiri are both out with ankle injuries until the new year, and Rav van den Berg is missing with a muscle problem. Joel Schmied is fit again, which gives Wagner another option in a back three expected to feature Luka Lochoshvili and Jahmai Simpson-Pusey.
Koln reached this round with a 2-1 win at Wurzburger Kickers on 23 August. Their recent league games have all been close: a 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen, a 2-1 defeat at Hamburg on 19 September, a 2-1 home win over Gladbach, a 1-0 loss in Frankfurt and Saturday’s goalless draw. Those five matches produced nine goals in total.
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Union Berlin: three games unbeaten since Munich, built on conceding almost nothing 
Union’s season turned on 18 September. The 7-0 defeat at Bayern was their third league loss in four games, and since then they’ve beaten Elversberg 1-0, held league leaders Borussia Dortmund to a 0-0 draw and come away from Augsburg with a point.
Saturday’s 1-1 took some effort. Felix Uduokhai was sent off after 19 minutes for pulling down Michael Gregoritsch as the last man, against his former club, and Union played more than 70 minutes with ten men. Han-Noah Massengo put Augsburg ahead on 71 minutes, and Janik Haberer equalised three minutes later.
The underlying numbers were less kind to them. Augsburg finished with 2.24 expected goals to Union’s 0.98, and that gap fits a side whose top league scorer, Tim Skarke, has two goals. Lustrinelli’s team don’t create much, and he has accepted that in return for keeping games narrow.
Uduokhai’s red card should only rule him out of the league game in Berlin, so he’s expected to be available on Tuesday. Andrik Markgraf won’t be, as he’s out until the spring with a cruciate ligament injury. Josip Juranovic is recovering from illness without a set return date, and Andrej Ilic has been absent for several weeks and is a doubt.
History favours Union more than the table does. They’ve won ten of the 21 competitive meetings to Koln’s seven, with four draws, and they won 1-0 in Cologne on 20 December 2025. The most recent meeting, in Berlin on 2 May, ended 2-2.
Probable lineup FC Koln: Schwabe; Sebulonsen, Simpson-Pusey, Lochoshvili; Sosa, Krauss, Johannesson, Maina, Moore; Bulter, El Mala
Probable lineup Union Berlin: Ronnow; Haberer, van den Bosch, Uduokhai, Rothe, Schafer; Khedira, Jeong, Aebischer, Burcu, Skarke
Free Football Prediction: FC Koln vs Union Berlin
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (90 minutes) @ 2.22
Both teams have spent the last month keeping games small. Union have conceded once in three league matches since the Bayern defeat and scored only twice, and Koln’s last five league games produced nine goals between both sides. With Dallinga, Rondic and probably Ache missing, Koln’s attack is thinner now than it was in August.
The case against is the head-to-head: the 2-2 in May and Koln’s 3-2 win in May 2024 both went over the line. Cup ties can also get stretched late, but totals markets settle on 90 minutes, so any goals in extra time won’t count against the bet.
Three of the last five meetings ended with two goals or fewer, and both managers know they play each other again within five days. I’d take under 2.5 goals at 2.22, a price that treats two low-scoring sides as if they were an open one.
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