- 1 Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies: Sabonis’s triple-double wasn’t enough on Friday, and Memphis arrive 2-0
- 2 Sacramento Kings: 249 points allowed in two games and no second center
- 3 Memphis Grizzlies: a 17-2 finish at Golden State built on Edey and Boozer
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies: Sabonis’s triple-double wasn’t enough on Friday, and Memphis arrive 2-0 
Domantas Sabonis had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists against Portland on Friday, the 69th triple-double of his career. Sacramento lost its home opener 128-120 anyway.
The Kings are 0-2 and 15th in the West. They lost 121-96 to the Clippers on opening night, then led Portland by 12 in the first quarter at Golden 1 Center and gave it all back.
Memphis, on the other hand, is unbeaten. The Grizzlies are 2-0 and could start 3-0 for the first time since 2017. They beat Utah 123-103 at home, then won 111-108 at Golden State after trailing 106-94 with 3:47 left.
Tip-off is 9:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October. Memphis is a 4.5-point road favourite at around 1.91, with the moneyline near 1.56 for the Grizzlies and 2.50 for the Kings. The total is 236.5.
It’s also a night for two of June’s top-seven picks. Cameron Boozer, the third overall selection, hit the go-ahead shot with 20.1 seconds left at Chase Center. Darius Acuff Jr. scored 33 for Sacramento against Portland, and he’s the one of the pair still looking for his first NBA win.
I’d side with the team that’s found a way to win twice. A four-and-a-half-point spread isn’t a lot to ask of it against a defence that’s conceded 121 and 128.
Sacramento Kings: 249 points allowed in two games and no second center 
The Kings have given up 249 points in two games. The Clippers shot their way to 121 on opening night, and Portland came back from 12 down to score 128 in Sacramento.
Maxime Raynaud, who was in line to start at center, isn’t expected back until early November, and Dylan Cardwell is on the same timeline. Ben Simmons, signed in September on a one-year deal, is out for the season.
With no second big available, Sabonis is doing almost everything. He had 14 points, 18 rebounds and eight assists against the Clippers before the triple-double on Friday, and he said after that game he wants the ball more so he can “swing it and get guys open.”
Acuff’s 33 against Portland came with a 2-of-11 night from three. His points line is 19.5 tonight, and Zach LaVine’s is 20.5, so the Kings have scoring on the perimeter. What they haven’t shown yet is a stop when they need one.
Sacramento has won both of Sabonis’s previous meetings with Zach Edey. Those came against a Memphis roster that still had Ja Morant, Santi Aldama and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, none of whom are with the Grizzlies now.
Last season’s record as a big underdog doesn’t help. The Kings covered 35 of 82 games overall and won 13 of 58 games when priced at 2.52 or longer, and this line sits right on that edge. Their games went over 236.5 only 30 times in 82 last season, but this defence has already allowed 249 in two.
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Memphis Grizzlies: a 17-2 finish at Golden State built on Edey and Boozer 
The Golden State win came from the defence. Memphis held the Warriors to two points over the final 3:47 and outscored them 17-2. Edey blocked a Stephen Curry three during the run and finished with eight points, 10 rebounds and two blocks, a plus-25 in a three-point game.
Steve Kerr singled out Edey’s defence down the stretch afterwards. Tuomas Iisalo said his center “finds a way within the game to make winning plays,” and at 7-foot-3 he’s a problem for a Kings team without a second big.
Boozer had 25 points and 13 rebounds in that game, two days after a 2-of-15 debut against Utah. His points line is 17.5 tonight, and his rebounding line is set at 8.5.
Ty Jerome is the top scorer on the board at 22.5 points. He scored 45 in the opener on 17-of-25 shooting. That number won’t repeat, but Memphis has now won two games with him running the offence and Morant gone to Portland.
Cedric Coward is doubtful after missing the Golden State game, so Jaylen Wells or Jerami Grant should start on the wing again. Grant’s line is 11.5 points, and Wells’ is the same.
The record against the number is the warning. Memphis covered two of seven games as a favourite of 4.5 or more last season, though that roster went 25-57 and closed the season with eight straight defeats. This one has won its first two, including against a Warriors team that won all three meetings between the sides last season.
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis
Probable lineup Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome, Jaylen Wells, Jerami Grant, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey
Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies
Our prediction: Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 (1.91)
I’d back Memphis to cover. The Kings have conceded 121 and 128, they’re without Raynaud and Cardwell, and Edey has just closed out a road win by blocking a Curry three.
Sabonis is the reason this isn’t a bigger line. He’s averaging 20.5 points, 18.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists, and the Kings have won both his games against Edey. I’m not convinced that’s enough when his team is giving up 124.5 a night.
The moneyline at 1.56 is the safer route if the spread feels tight, since a Memphis win by one to four points would only land that. I’d still take the 4.5 at 1.91, because both Grizzlies wins so far have come with a defence that holds up late.
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