- 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers: nine straight Clippers defeats in Oklahoma City, and 26 turnovers on Friday
- 2 Oklahoma City Thunder: 95.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, and Jalen Williams back to full speed
- 3 Los Angeles Clippers: four rotation players out and a point guard with nine turnovers
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers: nine straight Clippers defeats in Oklahoma City, and 26 turnovers on Friday 
The Clippers haven’t won a game in Oklahoma City since March 2020. They’ve lost nine straight at the Paycom Center, and the Thunder have swept the season series in each of the last two years.
Nothing about Friday night suggests that run is about to end. The Clippers lost 125-117 to the Lakers and turned the ball over 26 times, nine of them by Darius Garland, a career high. They’re averaging 22 turnovers through two games.
Oklahoma City is 2-0. The Thunder opened with a 116-104 win in San Antonio, their first meeting with the Spurs since losing Game 7 of the Western Conference finals 111-103, then beat Denver 96-84 at home on Thursday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 17 against Denver, the first time in 142 games he’d been held under 20, and his NBA-record run stopped at 141. Wilt Chamberlain’s old mark was 126, and nobody else has reached 100.
Tip-off is 7:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October. Oklahoma City is a 14.5-point favourite at most books and 15.5 at one, priced around 1.10 on the moneyline, with the Clippers out at 7.50 to 8.00. The total sits between 220.5 and 222.
I’d normally be wary of laying that many points this early in the season. The Clippers’ injury list and their ball security in the first week make this the exception.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 95.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, and Jalen Williams back to full speed 
Oklahoma City allowed 95.9 points per 100 possessions across its first two games, after leading the league in defensive rating last season at 106.5.
The Thunder also led the NBA in points off turnovers last season, 22.0 a game. Against a team giving the ball away 22 times a night, that’s the number most likely to decide the margin.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s quiet night against Denver came with context. He had 10 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter and left with 1:24 to go and the game won. Two nights earlier he scored 32 in San Antonio, and his points line is 28.5 tonight.
Jalen Williams is the other reason to like the home side. He played only 33 regular-season games last season and missed much of the playoffs, and he opened this one with 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting against the Nuggets.
Jared McCain gives the second unit a shooter. He hit 6 of 8 threes in the opener for 20 points, and Ajay Mitchell’s line sits at 10.5 tonight. Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic, both absent for the first two games, could be available. Up front, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein start together, and Holmgren’s rebounding line of 8.5 is the highest on the team.
The Thunder won 21 of 23 games last season when priced at 1.10 or shorter, and they went 14-10 against the spread as favourites of 15.5 or more. That’s a team that doesn’t take its foot off against weaker opposition.
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Los Angeles Clippers: four rotation players out and a point guard with nine turnovers 
Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal and Max Strus are all out, along with Yanic Konan Niederhauser. Ingram and Strus both arrived in the summer, Kawhi Leonard is now in Toronto, so the team Tyronn Lue planned around has barely played together.
Garland scored 30 in the 121-96 win over Sacramento on Wednesday, then had his nine turnovers against the Lakers. Lue called him “the head of the snake” after that game and said he has to look after the ball.
The rest of the lineup is built more for defence than scoring. Kris Dunn starts next to Garland, with Rui Hachimura, Derrick Jones Jr. and Isaiah Jackson up front, and Hachimura’s points line of 16.5 is the second highest on the team.
Keaton Wagler, the fifth pick in the 2026 draft, had 15 points, five rebounds and five assists in his debut. He’s the one young player in the rotation who can create his own shot, but asking a rookie to do it in this building is a lot.
Sunday is also the second game of a stretch in which the Clippers play four of five on the road. They beat a Sacramento team that’s still winless and lost the one game they played against a good opponent.
The Thunder are also likely to own the Clippers’ 2027 first-round pick, so every Clippers defeat this season has value in Oklahoma beyond the standings.
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
Probable lineup Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Rui Hachimura, Derrick Jones Jr., Isaiah Jackson
Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers
Our prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5 (1.91)
I’m laying the points. The Clippers are without Ingram, Beal and Strus, they’re turning it over 22 times a game, and they’re walking into the building where last season’s leaders in points off turnovers have beaten them nine times running.
The case against is the size of the number. Oklahoma City beat Denver by 12, and a garbage-time run from the Clippers bench could take a 20-point lead down to 13. I still think the turnovers do the damage early, and Gilgeous-Alexander will want a new run of 20-point games to start tonight.
If the 14.5 moves to 15.5 at your book, I’d still play it. Anything above 16 and the Under on the total becomes the better way in.
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