Search Icon
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens NHL Heritage Classic prediction

Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens – Free NHL Prediction

Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens: the Heritage Classic arrives two days after the Hellebuyck trade NHL

Connor Hellebuyck was traded to New Jersey on Friday, and Dawson Mercer landed in Winnipeg shortly before midnight. Two days later the Jets play an outdoor game in front of more than 30,000 people, with Mercer expected to skate on Adam Lowry’s line and kill penalties.

The deal ended a saga that started when Hellebuyck’s trade request went public on 27 August. He refused to report to camp, the Jets suspended him, and the suspension ran out on the same day New Jersey sent Mercer, Nick Bjugstad, goaltender Nico Daws, prospect Alexander Command and two picks the other way. Lowry described the mood as “relief, just having clarity on the situation.”

The game is the 2026 Heritage Classic at Princess Auto Stadium, puck drop 7:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October. It’s the eighth game in the series and Winnipeg’s second time hosting it, after a 3-0 defeat to Edmonton in 2016 that was delayed nearly two hours by glare off the ice.

Both teams arrive with almost the same record. Winnipeg is 4-3-3 after 10 games and Montreal 4-3-2 after nine. The Canadiens are slight favourites at 1.85, with the Jets at 1.98, and the total is 5.5.

Montreal will play without Nick Suzuki. The captain is out for two to four weeks with an upper-body injury, which ended a streak of 546 consecutive games, and Ivan Demidov is on injured reserve.

The forecast is for sun and a high of 5°C, dropping to -4°C overnight. Face-off is 6:00pm local time, four hours later than the 2:00pm start that ran into the glare problem in 2016.

Winnipeg Jets: four games without a win, but a power play at 22.2% Winnipeg Jets

The Jets haven’t won in four games. They lost to Chicago and Carolina, then 2-1 in St. Louis on 20 October despite 33 shots, and 3-2 in Dallas on Thursday.

Seven of Winnipeg’s first nine games were decided by one goal, and the Jets have scored 26 and allowed 29 across 10 games. Those 26 goals have come from 265 shots, a 9.8% shooting rate.

Kyle Connor is the reason I’d back them to score. He has nine goals in 10 games, and the Jets’ power play is converting 22.2% of its chances against a Montreal penalty kill that has allowed eight goals on 37 opportunities.

Stuart Skinner should be in goal. He made 26 saves in St. Louis and carries a .902 career save percentage over 231 games, with Clay Stevenson as the other option and Daws likely to be scratched.

The defence is still missing Josh Morrissey, who went on injured reserve on 19 October. Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo are the experienced pair left, and the Jets have allowed 300 shots in 10 games.

Mercer has no goals in 10 games this season, but he’s averaged around 20 points a year since 2021-22 and gives Scott Arniel another forward who can kill penalties. Arniel said the team has moved on and welcomed the new players.

FREE
2-week trial
no renewal
Full GOAT access.
Free for 2 weeks.
Picks · Injury reports · Trends · AI Chatbot · Cappers’ Corner — no commitment

Montreal Canadiens: no Suzuki, a 13.8% power play and a 4-1 win in Chicago Montreal Canadiens

Montreal won 4-1 in Chicago on Friday, the first game of a four-game road trip. Connor Bedard scored 4:23 in, and the Canadiens then scored four straight while holding the Blackhawks without a shot on goal for the first 8:45 of the third period.

That was without Suzuki, and the result flatters the attack a little. The Canadiens have 28 goals in nine games, 21st in the league, and their power play has scored four times on 29 chances, a 13.8% rate.

Cole Caufield carries most of the scoring. He has six goals in nine games, and Juraj Slafkovsky has two. Lane Hutson runs the play from the back end, and with Suzuki out he’ll have the puck even more.

Montreal has conceded 34 goals in nine games, and opponents are shooting well enough that the team save percentage sits at .857 for the season.

Jakub Dobes is the likely starter. He made 28 saves in a 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose on 20 October and carries a career .899 save percentage over 64 games.

Seven of Montreal’s nine games have gone over 5.5 goals. Outdoors, the Canadiens are 2-2 in four previous games, with a 4-0 loss in Calgary at the 2011 Heritage Classic the last time they played in this event.

Probable lineup Winnipeg Jets: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Stuart Skinner)
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Jakub Dobes)

Free NHL Prediction: Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens

Our prediction: Winnipeg Jets to win (1.98)

I’d take the Jets at close to even money. They have the best goal scorer on the ice in Connor, a power play running at 22.2% against a penalty kill that leaks, and more than 30,000 home fans in the stands.

Four straight games without a win is the obvious worry, and the crease has lost its starter for good. I’m still not convinced by a Montreal side that’s scored 28 in nine games and now has to keep doing it without Suzuki, behind a goalie at .899 for his career.

If the price on Winnipeg drifts past 2.05 before puck drop, I’d add to it. Overtime counts on this market, and seven of the Jets’ first nine games were one-goal games.

MathODDS App
Your picks,
in your pocket.
Predictions · Trends · Tools · Injury reports
Real-time notifications & alerts
→
★★★★★

_________

About our free predictions

  • What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
  • Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
  • The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
  • A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
  • Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
  • Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.

No commitment from us

Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.

Information changes

A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.

Your responsibility

Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.

Responsible gambling

We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.

Legal age

MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.

About visuals

The images and logos of Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.

Author

  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

✨