- 1 Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers: 31st in goals for, 31st in goals against, and a Florida team on a nine-goal skid
- 2 Chicago Blackhawks: 21.4 shots a game and a 2-3 start to a seven-game homestand
- 3 Florida Panthers: no Barkov, no Marchand, no Markstrom, and a 6-foot-9 rookie in reserve
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers: 31st in goals for, 31st in goals against, and a Florida team on a nine-goal skid 
Chicago ranks 31st in the NHL in goals scored, 31st in goals allowed and last in the league on the power play. The Blackhawks score 2.2 a game, concede 4.0 and have converted 10.3% of their man-advantage chances.
They’re 3-7-0 after a 4-1 home loss to Montreal on Friday, a game Connor Bedard opened with a goal 4:23 in. The Canadiens scored the next four, and Chicago didn’t record a shot on goal in the third period until 8:45 had gone.
Florida comes to the United Center in a rough patch of its own. The Panthers lost 5-1 in Ottawa on Wednesday and 4-0 in Pittsburgh on Thursday, their first shutout defeat of the season, and they’ve now conceded nine straight goals.
Puck drop is 3:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October. Florida is the favourite at 1.54, with Chicago at 2.50, and the total is six.
Both coaches spent Saturday talking about fixing things. Jeff Blashill said “we’re 3-7, so that’s way far off from where we want to be,” and Paul Maurice said he needs to get his players’ attention and suggested the problem might start with him.
I’d trust the team with the better underlying numbers, and that isn’t close. Florida allows 24.4 shots a game, fifth-fewest in the league, while Chicago gives up 30.3 and takes only 21.4.
Chicago Blackhawks: 21.4 shots a game and a 2-3 start to a seven-game homestand 
The Blackhawks are 2-3 on a seven-game homestand, and the shot numbers explain most of it. They’re 31st in shots for and 27th in shots against, so even good goaltending only keeps the margin down.
Bedard and Patrick Kane are on the top line with Roman Kantserov, and that’s where nearly all of the threat comes from. Jordan Greenway hit the post in the first period against Montreal, and the Canadiens took the lead late in the same frame.
Andrew Mangiapane was activated from injured reserve on Friday but was scratched against Montreal, and he could play for the first time since opening night. Bowen Byram has missed three straight games with an upper-body injury and skated in a non-contact jersey on Saturday. Ryan Ellis is out for the season.
Spencer Knight has started the past five games, and Arvid Soderblom could get the call on Sunday afternoon.
Ian Cole said after Friday that the team starts well but isn’t good enough overall. The record backs him up: Chicago has won three of its 10 games as an underdog, and it’s lost all six when priced at 2.50 or longer.
The penalty kill is 20th at 76.7%, which matters less than usual against a Florida power play that ranks 21st. Florida’s penalty kill sits 11th at 82.6%, so the Blackhawks’ 32nd-ranked power play faces one of the better units in the league.
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Florida Panthers: no Barkov, no Marchand, no Markstrom, and a 6-foot-9 rookie in reserve 
Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand are both out with knee injuries, Jacob Markstrom is out with an upper-body problem and Jonah Gadjovich with a neck injury.
Akira Schmid will start in goal, Maurice confirmed. Cooper Black, the 6-foot-9 rookie who became the tallest goaltender ever to play in the NHL, made 18 saves on his debut in Pittsburgh and backs up.
Florida didn’t lack shots in Pittsburgh. Sam Reinhart had six and Sam Bennett four, and Arturs Silovs stopped everything. Florida averages 28.1 shots a game, 12th in the league, and scores 2.82 goals, 22nd.
Gustav Forsling left late on Thursday after taking a puck to the face. He’s listed day-to-day and projected to play alongside Aaron Ekblad, and Sandis Vilmanis and Radko Gudas are expected back after sitting out in Pittsburgh.
Brady Tkachuk scored Florida’s only goal in Ottawa, against the team he played eight seasons for. He’s on the top line with his brother Matthew and Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk said after Thursday that the problem is the way Florida is playing rather than the results alone.
Florida has won three of seven games as a moneyline favourite this season, but it’s 2-0 when priced at 1.54 or shorter. Both teams practised in Chicago on Saturday, so neither side is short of rest.
Probable lineup Chicago Blackhawks: Kantserov, Bedard, Kane; Bertuzzi, Frondell, Greenway; Teravainen, Nazar, Donato; Smith, Greene, Mangiapane. Defence: Vlasic, Cole; Kaiser, Levshunov; Korchinski, Rinzel. Goalie: Knight or Soderblom
Probable lineup Florida Panthers: B. Tkachuk, Bennett, M. Tkachuk; Vilmanis, Verhaeghe, Reinhart; Eller, Luostarinen, Lundell; Imama, Schwindt, Hathaway. Defence: Forsling, Ekblad; Mikkola, Jones; Kulikov, Gudas. Goalie: Schmid
Free NHL Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers
Our prediction: Florida Panthers to win (1.54)
I’m backing Florida. Two bad nights in Ottawa and Pittsburgh don’t change the fact that this team allows 24.4 shots a game and is playing the worst shot-generating side in the league.
The injuries are real, and Schmid isn’t Markstrom. But the Chicago power play is converting at 10.3%, the Blackhawks have lost all six games as an underdog of 2.50 or longer, and their own coach describes the start as way off.
Florida last played on Thursday and practised in Chicago on Saturday, while the Blackhawks are on their sixth home game in a row. I’d expect the shot gap to show up early, and Bedard’s line is the only part of this Chicago team I’d fear.
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