- 1 Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche: 0-4 past regulation, and the second night of a back-to-back against MacKinnon
- 2 Nashville Predators: 30th in shots, a 28.6% power play and a likely start for Annunen
- 3 Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon has 20 points in 11 games and the team is fully rested
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche: 0-4 past regulation, and the second night of a back-to-back against MacKinnon 
Nashville has played four games that went beyond 60 minutes this season and lost all four. The latest came in Pittsburgh on Saturday night, when Rickard Rakell tied it with 1:06 left in regulation and Ville Koivunen won it 3-2 with 1:16 left in overtime.
Juuse Saros made a season-high 34 saves in that game. The Predators also gave the puck away 24 times, two days after a 6-0 defeat in Boston that led Andrew Brunette to move Matthew Wood onto the top line.
That leaves Nashville at 3-3-4, seventh in the Central, and back on home ice at Bridgestone Arena less than 24 hours later. Colorado arrives 6-4-1 and rested, after a 6-3 home win over Tampa Bay on Friday.
Puck drop is 8:00pm ET on Sunday 25 October. The Avalanche are around 1.43 on the moneyline and Nashville about 2.90. The puck line on Colorado -1.5 is close to even at 1.95, and the total is 6.5.
It’s the first meeting of the season between the two Central teams. Colorado is 2-1-1 against the division so far, Nashville 2-1-0.
I’d want a strong reason to back a tired team against Nathan MacKinnon, and I can’t find one in the Nashville numbers.
Nashville Predators: 30th in shots, a 28.6% power play and a likely start for Annunen 
The Predators have 223 shots on goal this season, 30th in the league. They’ve scored 23 goals and allowed 28, and their only win in their last five games was a 5-2 home result against St. Louis on 17 October.
The power play is the part that works. Nashville has scored eight times on 28 chances, a 28.6% rate, and the penalty kill is stopping 83.3% of opposition chances. Roman Josi leads the defence with eight points.
Saros played into overtime on Saturday, which makes Justus Annunen the likely starter. Annunen has a .898 career save percentage across 81 games, and opponents have averaged 3.12 goals a game against him.
Steven Stamkos scored his fifth goal of the season in Pittsburgh, credited after Wood’s shot went in off his skate. Jayden Struble, picked up from Montreal on 9 October for a 2027 second-round pick, scored his first goal for the club in the same game.
William Trudeau is out with an upper-body injury, leaving the blue line a body short. The same skaters who gave the puck away 24 times on Saturday now play again without a day in between.
Two of those four extra-time defeats came in shootouts, 3-2 in Ottawa on 10 October and 3-2 at home to San Jose five days later, and the Pittsburgh loss was settled in overtime. The Predators keep games close, but they haven’t won one past 60 minutes yet.
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Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon has 20 points in 11 games and the team is fully rested 
MacKinnon leads Colorado with seven goals and 13 assists in 11 games. He’s taken 48 shots, 4.4 a game, and every one of the seven games in which he’s scored a point has been a multi-point night. His over 1.5 points line is priced at 2.05 tonight, which says the market expects him to be involved again.
Artturi Lehkonen has nine goals, the team high, and the Avalanche scored six on Friday against a Tampa Bay team that had won seven of its previous eight. They converted one of three power plays in that game.
Colorado lost 3-2 in Philadelphia on 19 October and 4-3 in New Jersey the next night, so this team has already dropped points on the road this month. Before that trip, the Avalanche beat Pittsburgh 5-2 at home on 16 October and lost a 3-2 shootout to Dallas two days earlier.
Mackenzie Blackwood should start. He carries a .905 career save percentage over 298 games and a 2.90 goals-against average, which is a clear step up on the numbers Annunen brings into this one.
Zachary L’Heureux is out with an upper-body injury and isn’t expected back until early November. Nicolas Roy is day-to-day with a lower-body problem, so the depth at center could be thinner than usual.
Colorado is 4-1-1 when the opponent takes more penalty minutes. Nashville’s power play is good enough that the Avalanche will want to keep this at even strength, and they’ve been disciplined so far: opponents have had only 23 power plays against them, the fewest in the league.
Probable lineup Nashville Predators: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Justus Annunen)
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood)
Free NHL Prediction: Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche
Our prediction: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (1.95)
I’m taking Colorado on the puck line. The moneyline at 1.43 is too short, and a two-goal win is a fair ask against a tired team that’s 30th in shots and gave the puck away 24 times on Saturday.
The risk is Nashville’s habit of dragging games to overtime, where this bet loses even if Colorado wins. Four of their 10 games have gone that far. I still think the Predators’ legs give out in the third period, and Colorado’s top line has the finishing to turn a one-goal lead into two.
An empty-net goal also counts on the puck line, and Nashville will be chasing late if it’s behind. That’s usually where a -1.5 bet gets paid.
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