- 1 Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets: 30 free throws in Orlando against a team that has won the last four meetings
- 2 Atlanta Hawks: 132 points in Orlando with Alexander-Walker, Daniels and Johnson all past 20
- 3 Houston Rockets: 30 each from Durant and Smith Jr., and a 70-38 halftime lead over Dallas
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets: 30 free throws in Orlando against a team that has won the last four meetings 
Atlanta made 30 of 36 free throws in Orlando on Wednesday and scored 72 points in the first half on the way to a 132-125 win. Nickeil Alexander-Walker finished with 31 as the Hawks opened the season with a road win over a Magic team led by 35 from Banchero.
Saturday’s visitors have beaten them four times in a row. Houston won 104-86 at State Farm Arena on 29 January and 117-95 at home on 20 March last season, after winning both meetings in 2024-25 by four and seven points. The Rockets’ last two wins in the series came by an average of 20.
The game is the first of two between them in three days. After Saturday’s meeting in Atlanta, scheduled for 8pm ET (some listings show 8:30pm ET), they play again in Houston on Monday night. Both teams also play on Friday, Atlanta at Charlotte and Houston against San Antonio in Austin, so this is the second night of a back-to-back for both.
Last season’s records were close. Houston finished 52-30 and fifth in the West, Atlanta 46-36 and sixth in the East. Both lost in six games in the first round, Houston to the Lakers and Atlanta to the Knicks, with the Hawks’ season ending in a 140-89 defeat.
No sportsbook line had been posted when we checked. The betting trends treat Atlanta as the home favourite, and two of them stand out: the Under has landed in each of the last five meetings, and Houston is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games as a road underdog.
Atlanta Hawks: 132 points in Orlando with Alexander-Walker, Daniels and Johnson all past 20 
Quin Snyder’s team scored freely in its opener. Atlanta shot 48.9% from the field, made 14 of 36 threes and led 72-62 at halftime. The Hawks also turned the ball over 17 times, which kept Orlando close until the end.
Alexander-Walker’s 31 came on 8-of-15 shooting, with five threes and 10 free throws. Daniels scored 20 with five steals, Johnson had 20 points, 14 rebounds and six assists, and McCollum made seven of nine shots for 19. Aaron Wiggins added 16 off the bench.
The defence was less convincing. Banchero scored 35 with 10 assists for Orlando, and two other Magic players reached 22. Atlanta conceded 125 and needed its free-throw volume to stay ahead.
The injury list affects depth. Rookie centre Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Mouhamed Gueye is out after foot surgery in July. Snyder started McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Johnson and Okongwu in Orlando, with Okongwu contributing seven assists from the centre spot.
Games between these two have been low-scoring at State Farm Arena. The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta, and the January game produced 190 points in total.
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Houston Rockets: 30 each from Durant and Smith Jr., and a 70-38 halftime lead over Dallas 
Houston’s opener was finished early. The Rockets beat Dallas 128-110 on Wednesday after winning the second quarter 38-12 and leading 70-38 at the break. They shot 53.4% from the field, made 16 of 36 threes and finished with 32 assists.
Kevin Durant scored 30 on 10-of-16 shooting, and Jabari Smith Jr. matched him with 30, including four threes. Sengun added 23 points and 10 rebounds, and Amen Thompson had 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Fred VanVleet returned from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season. He scored only six points but handed out 11 assists, and his presence gives Ime Udoka a true point guard again alongside Thompson.
The fitness questions are on the bench. Reed Sheppard (knee) and Steven Adams (calf) were both questionable for Friday, and Adams didn’t play in the opener. Tari Eason was ejected in the first quarter against Dallas for a flagrant 2 foul.
Houston’s defence did much of the work in the last two meetings with Atlanta. The Rockets held the Hawks to 86 points in Atlanta in January and 95 in Houston in March. Atlanta’s highest score in the last four meetings is 114, in a 121-114 defeat in March 2025.
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Johnson, Okongwu
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Sengun
Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win
We’re backing the road side. Houston has won four straight against Atlanta, the last two by 18 and 22 points, and the Rockets’ opener showed a starting five with two 30-point scorers, a 23-point centre and a point guard back from injury.
Atlanta deserves credit for 132 points in Orlando, and the Hawks are at home. But their defence gave up 125 in that game, and the free-throw count that carried them, 36 attempts, isn’t something we’d count on against a Houston team that held them to 86 in this building in January.
Both teams play on Friday, so rest doesn’t separate them. With the trends listing Houston as the underdog, we’d expect a price above evens, and we think the Rockets are the stronger side. Our pick is a Houston win.
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