- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs: five Dallas absentees and a series San Antonio won 4-0 last season
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: 32 from Cooper Flagg, but a 70-38 halftime deficit in Houston
- 3 San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama went 1 of 13 in Oklahoma City and still had 13 rebounds and six blocks
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs: five Dallas absentees and a series San Antonio won 4-0 last season 
Dallas will play its home opener without Dereck Lively II, Aldama, Biberovic, Jett Howard and Caleb Martin. That’s five players unavailable before Dusty May coaches his first game at American Airlines Center, against the team that reached last season’s NBA Finals.
Tip-off is at 8pm ET on Saturday. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back: Dallas plays in Indiana on Friday, while San Antonio hosts Houston at the Moody Center in Austin. Neither side has the rest advantage.
The gap between the two last season was enormous. San Antonio went 62-20, finished second in the West and lost the Finals 4-1 to the Knicks. Dallas went 26-56, finished 12th and missed the playoffs, then replaced Jason Kidd with May, who was hired on 23 June.
The head-to-head reflected the table. The Spurs won all four meetings in 2025-26: 125-92 in Dallas on 22 October, when Victor Wembanyama scored 40 with 15 rebounds, then 135-123 in Dallas on 5 February, 138-125 at home two days later and 139-120 on 10 April. Counting a 126-116 win in March 2025, San Antonio has won five straight in the series.
No sportsbook line was available when we checked. A prediction market had the Spurs around 1.32 and the Mavericks around 4.00, which puts San Antonio as a clear road favourite.
Dallas Mavericks: 32 from Cooper Flagg, but a 70-38 halftime deficit in Houston 
The Mavericks lost their opener 128-110 in Houston on Wednesday, and the game was over at halftime. The Rockets won the second quarter 38-12 and went in 70-38 ahead, with Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. finishing on 30 points each.
Cooper Flagg did his part. Last season’s Rookie of the Year, who averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists over 70 games, scored 32 in the defeat. PJ Washington added 10 points and four rebounds.
Kyrie Irving played his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL in March 2025 and scored 15. He missed the whole of last season, and how much he can give on back-to-back nights early in his return is an open question for May.
The injury list is the bigger problem. Lively is the most important absence, leaving Gafford to start at centre against Wembanyama, and losing Martin and Howard removes two wings who could have helped on Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.
May’s probable five is Irving, Christie, Flagg, Washington and Gafford. It’s a group that scored 110 in Houston but gave up 70 in a half, and Dallas allowed San Antonio at least 125 points in each of last season’s four meetings.
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San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama went 1 of 13 in Oklahoma City and still had 13 rebounds and six blocks 
San Antonio opened with a 116-104 defeat in Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Wembanyama missed his first 12 shots and finished 1 of 13, a career low, though he still posted 12 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 for the Thunder.
The guards carried the offence. Castle scored 24 with seven rebounds, Harper had 18 points, seven rebounds and five assists, and De’Aaron Fox added 14. That’s a backcourt that can still produce when its centre has an off night.
Mitch Johnson’s injury report is longer than he’d like. Rookie Jayden Quaintance is out after right knee surgery, Tobias Harris has a left calf strain, Fox was questionable for Friday with a right wrist sprain and Keldon Johnson was questionable with a mouth laceration. Statuses for Saturday will depend on how Friday goes.
The probable starting five is Fox, Castle, Harper, Devin Vassell and Wembanyama. That’s a small lineup with Wembanyama as the only big, and against a Dallas frontcourt missing Lively, it shouldn’t cost the Spurs much on the glass.
Wembanyama’s record against Dallas is the other number we’d point to. He scored 40 with 15 rebounds in the first meeting last season, and San Antonio averaged 134.25 points across the four games.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, Christie, Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, Gafford
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs to win by 6 points or more
The Spurs’ moneyline is too short at around 1.32 on the prediction markets, so we’re taking the margin. San Antonio won last season’s four meetings by 33, 12, 13 and 19 points, an average of more than 19, and two of those wins came in Dallas.
The doubts are on San Antonio’s side of the injury report. Fox, Harris and Johnson all carried questions into Friday, and a second straight poor shooting night from Wembanyama would keep Dallas close. Flagg’s 32 in Houston also shows the Mavericks have one player who can score against anyone.
We still see a large talent gap, and the Dallas absences fall exactly where the Spurs are strongest: at centre and on the wing. With both teams on the same rest, we expect San Antonio to win by six or more.
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