- 1 Genoa vs Venezia: one point separates 17th from bottom at the Ferraris
- 2 Genoa: both teams have scored in each of their last three home games
- 3 Venezia: Nicola’s 3-5-2 and Akor Adams finding the net again
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs Venezia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Genoa vs Venezia: one point separates 17th from bottom at the Ferraris 
Genoa are 17th in Serie A with four points from seven games. Venezia are 20th with three. That single point is the whole gap between the two sides who meet at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 14:00 UK time, and it explains why a fixture between two struggling teams carries more weight than usual this early in the season.
Both clubs arrive with a reason to feel slightly better about themselves than they did a fortnight ago. Genoa beat Fiorentina 2-1 at home on 10 October, their only league win so far. Venezia, after six straight defeats under Giovanni Stroppa, changed coach on 14 October and beat Napoli 1-0 three days later in Davide Nicola’s first match.
That Napoli result matters because of how thin Venezia’s season had been until then. The newly promoted side had lost to AC Milan, Frosinone, Fiorentina, Lazio and Atalanta, conceding 16 goals across their first six games. One clean sheet against a side of Napoli’s standing doesn’t erase that record, but it does show what Nicola is trying to build with a three-man defence and two strikers.
There’s a personal thread here too. Nicola coached Genoa for 22 matches between December 2019 and August 2020 and won eight and drew five of them. He knows the stadium and the expectations around it, and he’s now trying to lift the club in the opposite dugout off the bottom.
Daniele De Rossi, on the other side, finished 16th with Genoa last season and has a squad that has lost five of its last seven league games. The recent head-to-head is even, with Genoa winning 2-0 at home in February 2025 and Venezia winning 2-0 at home in September 2024, so neither side can lean on history. What I’d lean on instead is how goals have arrived in Genoa’s home games this season, because that pattern points somewhere fairly specific.
Genoa: both teams have scored in each of their last three home games 
Genoa’s home results read 1-4 against Como, 1-1 against Frosinone and 2-1 against Fiorentina. They scored in all three, and they conceded in all three. Across the season they’ve let in eight goals at the Ferraris, half of them in that Como defeat. The defence isn’t collapsing every week, but it hasn’t got through any of those three home games without conceding.
The attacking side has a clear focal point. Milutin Osmajic is the club’s top scorer with three league goals, and he was involved in both goals against Fiorentina. With Colombo unavailable, most of Genoa’s threat runs through getting the ball into Osmajic and supporting him with Junior Messias and Stephan El Shaarawy from deeper positions.
The squad isn’t at full strength. Lorenzo Colombo remains sidelined, which takes away the main alternative to Osmajic up front. There’s better news on Alex Amorim, who is back in the squad after an ankle injury and gives De Rossi another option in midfield.
The bigger concern is the run of form around that Fiorentina win. Before it came defeats to Lazio (1-0), Como (4-1) and Parma (2-1), plus the 1-1 comeback draw with Frosinone. After it came a 2-0 loss at Roma last weekend. Four points from the four games since an opening run of three straight defeats is a modest improvement, not a turnaround.
Genoa have the stronger squad and home advantage, which is why the market makes them favourites at 2.08. I’m less sure their back three of Vasquez, Marcandalli and Ostigard can keep out a Venezia side that now has two strikers playing off each other.
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Venezia: Nicola’s 3-5-2 and Akor Adams finding the net again 
The defensive numbers before Nicola arrived were poor by any standard. Sixteen goals conceded in six matches, eight of them away from home, although two of their three away games were at AC Milan and Atalanta. Those fixtures inflate the figures, but the 3-2 defeat at Frosinone and the 4-2 home loss to Fiorentina came against sides closer to their level.
What changed against Napoli was shape more than personnel. Nicola set up with three centre-backs, Juan Jesus, Halhal and Moreno, with Hainaut and Haps as wing-backs and a central three of Perez, Basic and Sohm. He’s unlikely to alter a system that kept a clean sheet at the first attempt, so expect the same structure in Genoa.
Up front, Akor Adams scored the winner against Napoli, his second goal in his last three outings. He and Yeboah play close together in the 3-5-2, which gives Venezia a second runner when the ball goes forward and makes them more of a threat on the break than a lone striker would.
Even during the losing run Venezia found the net now and then. They put two past Frosinone, two past Fiorentina and one past Atalanta, and Adams and Yeboah are now paired up front in Nicola’s system. Their trouble has been at the other end, where Milan, Frosinone, Fiorentina, Lazio and Atalanta all scored at least twice against them.
One win doesn’t change the table much: Venezia are still bottom with three points and a goal difference of minus ten. They’ve also got a thin injury list to manage, with Thierry Correia a fitness doubt and Armel Bella-Kotchap expected to remain out, which leaves Nicola with little cover in the back line he’s relying on.
Probable lineup Genoa: Bijlow; Vasquez, Marcandalli, Ostigard; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Wiafe, Puczka; Messias, El Shaarawy; Osmajic
Probable lineup Venezia: Stankovic; Jesus, Halhal, Moreno; Hainaut, Perez, Basic, Sohm, Haps; Yeboah, Adams
Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs Venezia
Our prediction: Both teams to score – Yes (odds 1.69)
Genoa’s last three home league games all ended with both sides on the scoresheet, and Venezia scored in three of their five defeats against Milan, Frosinone, Fiorentina, Lazio and Atalanta before beating Napoli through Adams. A home side that keeps conceding at the Ferraris, against visitors whose striker has two goals in his last three outings, points towards a game where each team scores at least once.
The case against is the Napoli clean sheet, which suggests Nicola has already tightened things up. One match is a small sample, though, and before it Venezia had conceded 16 goals in six league games. Genoa, with Osmajic leading the line and Messias and El Shaarawy behind him, have enough to find a way through.
I’d rather not pick a winner between two sides this close in the table and this inconsistent. Backing both teams to score at 1.69 covers a Genoa win, a Venezia win or a draw, as long as the two defences behave the way they have for most of the season.
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