- 1 Finland vs San Marino: seven wins from seven meetings, and a goal difference that could decide Group C1
- 2 Finland: 9 goals scored, but only two since the 7-0, and neither from open play
- 3 San Marino: 16 conceded in four games, and one goal from Lazzari in Tirana
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Finland vs San Marino
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Finland vs San Marino: seven wins from seven meetings, and a goal difference that could decide Group C1 
Joel Pohjanpalo scored after five minutes in Serravalle on 26 September and finished the night with a hat-trick. Finland won 7-0, Leo Walta added two in the space of five minutes after half-time, and Adrian Svanbäck and Benjamin Källman got the others.
The return game is at the Bolt Arena in Helsinki on Sunday 15 November, kick-off 17:00 UK time, the last round of League C Group 1. Finland have played San Marino seven times and won all seven, with an aggregate score of 30-2.
The table is why this one isn’t a dead rubber. After four games Albania led on nine points, with Finland and Belarus both on seven. Belarus sat second because they took four points off Finland, a 0-0 in Helsinki and a 1-0 win in Budapest, even though Finland’s goal difference of plus seven was better than their plus three.
The group winner goes up to League B and the runner-up goes into a promotion play-off. Finland play in Tirana on Thursday before this, and Belarus host Albania on Sunday at the same time as the game in Helsinki, so the scoreline here could matter if the other two cancel each other out.
San Marino have one goal and 16 conceded from four games. They’ve lost every match in the group, and they’ve conceded at least twice in six straight Nations League fixtures.
I’d expect Finland to win comfortably and I’d back them to cover a three-goal handicap. Every one of their three home games against San Marino has ended with a margin of at least three: 4-1 in 1994, 8-0 in 2010 and 6-0 in 2023.
Finland: 9 goals scored, but only two since the 7-0, and neither from open play 
Jacob Friis’s side haven’t been as free-scoring since the opening night. They drew 0-0 with Belarus in Helsinki three days after the 7-0, then beat Albania 2-1 at the Olympic Stadium on 3 October in front of 24,885.
Both goals that night came from Walta free kicks, the first on 26 minutes deflecting in off Alen Sherri, the second on 71. Albania had been down to ten since Etrit Berisha’s red card on 22 minutes. Finland then lost 1-0 to Belarus in Budapest three days later, conceding after 16 seconds.
Walta has four goals in the group, the most of any player in League C, and Pohjanpalo has three. Finland’s numbers at the other end are good: two goals conceded in four games, and no side has scored more than once against them.
The November squad brings back Oliver Antman of Anderlecht and Naatan Skyttä of Kaiserslautern, who both missed the first four games, as well as Robert Ivanov and Fredrik Jensen after long absences. Luka Hyryläinen of Magdeburg has his first senior call-up. Robin Lod, who left the October squad injured, isn’t in it.
Lukas Hrádecký of Monaco is the first-choice goalkeeper, with Viljami Sinisalo of Celtic and Lucas Bergström of Mallorca behind him. Friis also has Pohjanpalo (Palermo), Källman (Hannover), Daniel Håkans (Lech Poznań) and Svanbäck (Häcken) to choose from up front.
Finland play in Tirana on Thursday, and any injuries or suspensions from that game will shape the side Friis picks on Sunday.
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San Marino: 16 conceded in four games, and one goal from Lazzari in Tirana 
Roberto Cevoli’s side lost 7-0 to Finland and 3-0 to Albania at home in September, then 4-0 to Belarus and 2-1 in Albania in October. That’s one goal scored and 16 conceded, and goalkeeper Edoardo Colombo started the first three of those games.
The only goal came in Tirana on 6 October. Lorenzo Lazzari scored on 66 minutes from a Lorenzo Capicchioni pass to make it 1-1, and Kristjan Asllani won it for Albania with a penalty in stoppage time.
San Marino’s last win was 3-1 in Liechtenstein on 18 November 2024, in League D. Since then their best result is a 0-0 friendly with Andorra on 31 March this year, and they also lost 2-1 to Azerbaijan in a friendly, with Nicola Nanni scoring.
Nanni is the striker most likely to start. He was sent off against Belarus on 3 October after a second booking and served his ban against Albania, so he’s available here. Nicolas Giacopetti has two goals in San Marino’s last ten games.
The home games in Serravalle went 7-0 and 3-0 against them. Away, they lost 4-0 to Belarus in Budapest and 2-1 in Albania, so their closest result of the campaign came on the road, which is where they are on Sunday.
Probable lineup Finland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup San Marino: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Finland vs San Marino
Our prediction: Finland -2.5 (Asian handicap)
Finland’s three home games against San Marino finished 4-1, 8-0 and 6-0, and they won 7-0 away in September. The straight home win will be far too short, so I’d take the three-goal margin instead. No prices had been published when we wrote this, so check the line is still at -2.5 before betting.
Finland’s recent scoring works against the pick. Two goals in three games, both from set pieces, isn’t the form of a side running up big totals, and San Marino were level with Albania from the 66th minute until stoppage time in October.
I still think the gap is too wide for San Marino to keep this under three. San Marino have conceded at least twice in six straight Nations League games, Finland have Antman and Skyttä back, and if the group is tight going into Sunday, Friis has every reason to keep attacking after the third goal.
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