- 1 Scotland vs Australia: three heavy defeats in a row for the Wallabies, and a Murrayfield side that led the All Blacks at the break
- 2 Scotland: 21 points in 40 minutes against New Zealand, then nothing
- 3 Australia: 46 points a game conceded over three Tests, and a midfield short of bodies
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Scotland vs Australia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Scotland vs Australia: three heavy defeats in a row for the Wallabies, and a Murrayfield side that led the All Blacks at the break
Australia have lost their last three Tests by 31, 22 and 23 points. New Zealand beat them 50-19 and 43-21 in October, and England won 45-22 at Twickenham last Sunday, so the side Les Kiss brings to Edinburgh hasn’t lost by fewer than 22 points since September.
Scotland host them at Scottish Gas Murrayfield on Sunday 15 November, kick-off 15:10 UK time, in round five of the Nations Championship. James Doleman of New Zealand referees, and ITV and STV have the game in the UK.
Gregor Townsend’s side come off a 43-21 defeat to New Zealand at the same ground eight days earlier. They trailed only 24-21 at half-time, with Ewan Ashman scoring a first-half hat-trick, the first by a Scotland player against the All Blacks, and then didn’t score again.
The table puts both teams in the middle of their sections. Scotland are fourth in the North with 11 points from two wins and two defeats, and a points difference of minus 11. Australia sit third in the South on eight points, one win from four, plus six on points difference only because of a 57-10 win over Italy in Perth.
The bookmakers have Scotland at 1.30 and Australia at 3.40. I think the hosts win, and I think they win by more than a converted try, because the Wallabies’ defence has given up 138 points in its last three Tests.
History is on the visitors’ side over the long run. Australia have won 22 of the 35 meetings since 1927, Scotland 13. The recent run is tighter: Scotland won 27-13 in 2024 and 15-13 in 2021, Australia edged it 16-15 in 2022, and Scotland’s record win in the fixture, 53-24, came in 2017.
Scotland: 21 points in 40 minutes against New Zealand, then nothing 
The New Zealand game split into two halves. Scotland matched the All Blacks for 40 minutes and scored three tries through Ashman. After the break they conceded 19 more points and scored none, and Sione Tuipulotu spent ten minutes in the sin bin for a call Townsend disputed afterwards.
In July Scotland won 47-38 in Córdoba against Argentina, lost 42-28 to South Africa in Pretoria and beat Fiji 33-17 at Murrayfield. That’s 129 points across four games, fourth in the Northern section behind France, England and Ireland.
Scotland have conceded 140 points, more than any Northern side except Italy, and 85 of those came against the two Southern unbeaten teams. Against Fiji and Argentina they let in 55 in two games.
Townsend has lost two forwards for the rest of the competition. Jamie Ritchie has a knee injury and Elliot Millar Mills a leg injury, and Freddy Douglas, D’arcy Rae and the uncapped Blyth-Lafferty have been called in. Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe weren’t in the 23 against New Zealand.
The side that started that game read Rowe; Steyn, H. Jones, Tuipulotu, Dobie; Russell, White; Sutherland, Ashman, Z. Fagerson, G. Brown, Cummings, M. Fagerson, Darge, Dempsey. Townsend has backed Finn Russell publicly but has also said nobody is guaranteed a place, and the team isn’t due until later in the week.
Scotland have scored 19 tries in the competition and conceded 20. Australia’s numbers are almost the same, 21 for and 20 against, and without the 57-10 win over Italy in Perth, Australia’s points difference would be minus 41.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Australia: 46 points a game conceded over three Tests, and a midfield short of bodies 
Australia’s November started as October ended. England led 19-10 at half-time at Twickenham and pulled away to 45-22, with Angus Bell sin-binned for a hip-drop tackle. Max Jorgensen scored from an interception, and Daugunu and J. Williams added the other two tries.
In the Nations Championship the Wallabies have one win from four. They lost 33-31 to Ireland in Sydney and 42-26 to France in Brisbane in July, beat Italy 57-10 in Perth, then lost at Twickenham. Outside the competition they drew 28-28 with Argentina and beat South Africa 42-38 in Perth in late September.
That win over the Springboks came against a side that was largely second-string, and it’s the last time Australia won. Their three defeats since have come by an average of more than 25 points.
The squad has thinned out in the centres. Isaac Henry is out of the tour with a hamstring injury, Hunter Paisami has gone home for personal reasons, and no replacement had been called up by Wednesday. Len Ikitau, Joseph Suaalii and Daugunu are the options, with Kurtley Beale also in the frame for a first Test in around five years.
Carter Gordon is back from a broken leg, and Kiss has said he’ll have to look at him if he’s fit, which would put Gordon at 10 in place of Declan Meredith. Tom Hooper and Rob Valetini are expected to be available for the back row.
The list of players missing for the whole November window still includes Cale, Flook, Gleeson, Jake Gordon, Philip, Samu and Skelton. Harry Wilson captains the side.
Probable lineup Scotland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Australia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Scotland vs Australia
Our prediction: Scotland to win by 8 points or more
Scotland at 1.30 is too short to back on its own, so I’d take the margin instead. Australia have conceded 45, 43 and 50 in their last three Tests, and Scotland scored 21 in a half against New Zealand last week. The handicap line hadn’t been posted when we wrote this, so check that it’s around a converted try before betting.
The case against is Scotland’s second half against the All Blacks and the 16-15 defeat to Australia in 2022, which shows how tight this fixture can get. Gordon’s return at fly-half would also give the Wallabies a better kicking game than they had at Twickenham.
I still trust the home side’s attack against a defence missing two centres and coming off three heavy defeats. Scotland’s last two wins over Australia came by two and by 14 points, and the gap between these sides this autumn is wider than it was in 2021.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Scotland and Australia on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply