- 1 Latvia vs Armenia: four Armenian wins in five meetings, against a bottom side with two goals
- 2 Latvia: no shot on target against Cyprus, and no win since March
- 3 Armenia: all four goals in one September week, then two blanks
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Latvia vs Armenia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Latvia vs Armenia: four Armenian wins in five meetings, against a bottom side with two goals 
Armenia have beaten Latvia in four of the last five meetings. The run goes 2-1 in June 2023, a 2-0 Latvia win in Riga that October, then 4-1 and 2-1 in the 2024 Nations League and 2-0 in Yerevan on 25 September this year.
The fifth game in that run comes at the Skonto Stadium in Riga on Sunday 15 November, kick-off 14:00 UK time, on the final matchday of League C Group 2. The ground holds 8,087, and Latvia have taken one point from their two home games there in this group.
Before Thursday’s fifth round, Latvia were bottom with one point from four games, two goals scored and six conceded. Armenia were third with four points and a goal difference of minus one. Montenegro led on ten and Cyprus had seven, so neither of Sunday’s teams can catch the top two.
Cyprus have beaten both of them, 2-0 against Armenia in Nicosia and 2-1 against Latvia on the same ground. Armenia lost that game by two goals, Latvia by one in stoppage time, and the margin between Sunday’s teams in this group has been about that small.
Both sides play on Thursday first, Latvia away to Montenegro and Armenia at home to Cyprus. Those results weren’t known when this was written, and a heavy defeat in Podgorica could change Latvia’s selection for Sunday. It won’t change the head-to-head, and it won’t change how few goals Latvia have scored in this group.
Armenia went into the autumn ranked 107th in the world, Latvia 137th. I’d rather back the visitors not to lose than trust a Latvia side without a win in six matches.
Latvia: no shot on target against Cyprus, and no win since March 
Paolo Nicolato’s side lost 2-0 in Yerevan on the opening night, then drew 0-0 at home to Cyprus without a shot on target. A 2-1 home defeat to Montenegro followed, with Vasilije Adžić scoring twice before Markuss Strods pulled one back on 82 minutes.
The trip to Nicosia on 5 October hurt the most. Eduards Dašķevičs put Latvia ahead on 57 minutes, Kosti equalised on 70 and Marcus Edwards won it for Cyprus in the fourth minute of stoppage time. That left Latvia with one point instead of four. Four of the six goals they’ve conceded in the group have come after half-time.
The last win came in March, when Latvia beat Gibraltar 1-0 home and away in the relegation play-out. Since then they’ve lost a Baltic Cup semi-final to Lithuania on penalties, lost 1-0 to the Faroe Islands, and gone through the four group games without a victory.
Vladislavs Gutkovskis and Jānis Ikaunieks have 26 international goals between them, and Gutkovskis has led the side in shots over its last ten games. Dennis Cirkin of QPR has come into the defence this autumn, and Andrejs Cigaņiks and goalkeeper Rihards Matrevics are regulars in a side that’s usually set up with three or five at the back.
Latvia’s record at home against Armenia is mixed. They won 2-0 in Riga in October 2023 and lost 2-1 in the same city in November 2024.
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Armenia: all four goals in one September week, then two blanks 
Yeghishe Melikyan’s side started the group with a 2-0 win over Latvia, Georgii Harutyunyan scoring on 31 minutes and Artur Gharibyan adding a second after coming off the bench. It was Armenia’s first win in more than a year.
Three days later they came from behind twice against Montenegro in Yerevan, through Artur Serobyan and Eduard Spertsyan, before Aleksa Latković won it 3-2 for the visitors two minutes from time.
Armenia lost 2-0 in Nicosia next, with both Cyprus goals inside 31 minutes, and then held Montenegro to 0-0 in Podgorica on 5 October. Stefan Lončar was sent off late on for the hosts that night.
Before September, Armenia had won one of their previous 15 away matches, and they haven’t scored in either of their away games in this group.
Eduard Spertsyan has 12 international goals, one of them in this group, and he’s led Armenia in shots and goals across their last ten internationals. Defender Erik Simonyan is back from injury, though he wasn’t expected to start against Cyprus on Thursday. Serobyan, Edgar Sevikyan and Artem Bandikyan have all been booked once in the group.
Probable lineup Latvia: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Armenia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Latvia vs Armenia
Our prediction: Armenia or draw (double chance)
Latvia have scored two goals in four group games and haven’t won any of their last six. Armenia have won four of the last five meetings, including 2-1 in Riga two years ago, and kept a clean sheet against Latvia in September. Prices hadn’t been posted for this game when we wrote this, so it’s worth checking that the double chance pays at least 1.45.
Armenia’s away record is the weak point in this pick, and no goals in two road games isn’t the profile of a side you’d want to back to win outright. That’s the reason I’m not taking the win and prefer to cover the draw.
Latvia’s only home defeat this autumn came by a single goal, and their only point was a 0-0 in Riga. A low-scoring game suits the double chance, and Armenia have shown in this fixture that they can score in Riga.
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