- 1 Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: a cup rematch of the 2-2 that turned on four late goals
- 2 Borussia Dortmund: four goals conceded in seven league games, and three single-goal results in a row
- 3 Werder Bremen: 29 goals in seven league games, and Fullkrug back among them
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: a cup rematch of the 2-2 that turned on four late goals
All four goals in Dortmund’s 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen on 9 October came after the 79th minute. Daniel Svensson scored on 80, Nico Schlotterbeck made it 2-0 on 85, and then Ludovit Reis and Niclas Fullkrug, in the second minute of stoppage time, took a point back to Bremen.
Eighteen days later the sides meet again at Signal Iduna Park, this time in the second round of the DFB-Pokal. Kick-off is 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 27 October, and there’s no second leg to fix anything.
Dortmund have handled the weeks since that draw well. Niko Kovac’s side are top of the Bundesliga on 17 points from seven games, with 12 goals scored and four conceded, and they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 at home on Saturday.
Bremen are sixth on 12 points, but their games look nothing like Dortmund’s. Daniel Thioune’s team have scored 15 and conceded 14 in seven league matches, and they won 3-2 at Mainz on Saturday after leading 2-0 inside 25 minutes.
The bookmakers make Dortmund heavy favourites at around 1.35, with Bremen out at 7.31. Over 3.5 goals is 2.14 and under 3.5 is 1.67.
Bremen’s goals-heavy record is the reason that over price exists. I’d look at Dortmund’s instead, because the home side is the one that decides how open this gets.
Borussia Dortmund: four goals conceded in seven league games, and three single-goal results in a row 
Dortmund’s last five matches finished 1-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1 and 2-2. The 1-0 against Frankfurt was settled by Maximilian Beier on 80 minutes, from a Jobe Bellingham pass, after a goalless first half.
The 2-1 came at Sabah in the Champions League on 20 October, and the 0-0 at Union Berlin three days before that. The only defeat in the run was 1-0 at Bodo/Glimt on 14 October.
At home in the league they’ve won 2-0 against Hamburger SV, 3-0 against Paderborn and 1-0 against Frankfurt. Before Bremen’s two late goals, Gregor Kobel hadn’t conceded a Bundesliga goal at Signal Iduna Park this season.
Kovac started Kobel behind a back three of Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton and Schlotterbeck on Saturday, with Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer and Julian Ryerson across midfield. Serhou Guirassy led the line, with Beier, Bellingham and Chukwuemeka among the substitutes.
Emre Can is still listed out with a cruciate ligament injury, and Giannis Konstantelias is unavailable after ACL surgery. Nwaneri, Mane and Inacio were also on the bench on Saturday, which gives Kovac room to rotate for a cup tie.
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Werder Bremen: 29 goals in seven league games, and Fullkrug back among them 
Bremen’s league games have produced 29 goals in seven matches. The run since mid-September reads 3-2 against Augsburg, 2-2 at Dortmund, 2-2 against Paderborn and 3-2 at Mainz.
Fullkrug scored twice from the penalty spot at Mainz, on seven and 25 minutes, and Reis added the third just after the hour. Mainz pulled two back through Anthony Caci and Lee Jae-sung, and Bremen spent the last 25 minutes defending a one-goal lead.
The international break brought a 7-0 friendly defeat at FC Twente. Earlier in the league they’d lost 4-1 at Freiburg, so this defence has already had two afternoons where it fell apart.
Thioune is in his first Bundesliga job, and he’s kept a settled spine. Karl Hein started in goal at Mainz behind Olivier Deman, Amos Pieper, Marco Friedl and Arthur, with Yannic Regeer and Reis in midfield and Marco Grull among the three behind Fullkrug.
Moussa N’Diaye and Justin Njinmah are unavailable. Before the 2-2 at Dortmund, Bremen hadn’t won any of their previous five Bundesliga away games, and the win at Mainz on Saturday was their first league victory on the road this season.
Probable lineup Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Bensebaini, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Svensson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Ryerson; Veerman, Silva; Guirassy
Probable lineup Werder Bremen: Hein; Deman, Pieper, Friedl, Arthur; Regeer, Reis; Weiser, Grull, Chuky; Fullkrug
Free Football Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Our prediction: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.67
Four of Dortmund’s last five games finished with three goals or fewer, and the fifth was the 2-2 with Bremen that needed four goals in the final ten minutes. They’ve conceded four times in seven league games, and their last two wins were 1-0 and 2-1.
Bremen’s 29 league goals in seven are the risk, and Fullkrug has already scored at this ground this month. But most of those goals came against defences much weaker than Dortmund’s, and Thioune’s side will spend long spells without the ball on Tuesday.
I’m not convinced by the over at 2.14. Dortmund set the tempo in this tie, and Kovac’s teams have been winning 1-0 and 2-1, so under 3.5 at 1.67 is the bet.
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