- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers: Flagg’s 25.2 against an Indiana roster still short of guards
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s numbers and a Sunday night that comes first
- 3 Indiana Pacers: 3-6, a Memphis win and a long list of names on the report
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers: Flagg’s 25.2 against an Indiana roster still short of guards 
Tyrese Haliburton’s left hamstring was expected to keep him out for at least another week as of Wednesday, and T.J. McConnell is rehabbing a right hamstring strain with the Noblesville Boom. That’s Indiana’s starting point guard and his backup, and it’s where I start with Monday’s game.
The Pacers visit American Airlines Center on Monday 9 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET. They’ll come from Mexico City, where they meet Denver on Saturday at 5:00pm ET.
Indiana is 3-6 and 11th in the East after winning 107-103 in Memphis on Wednesday. That win ended a run of losses to Philadelphia, Miami, Brooklyn and Atlanta, and the 145-125 defeat in Miami on 30 October was the worst of them.
Dallas went into Wednesday’s trip to San Antonio at 4-3 and lost 112-111, on a night Victor Wembanyama scored 52. The Mavericks host Utah on Friday and Brooklyn on Sunday, so Monday is the second night of a back-to-back.
The two teams met in Indianapolis on 23 October, in Haliburton’s first week back, and both teams’ records point to a Dallas win. Cooper Flagg has been the constant since then, at 25.2 points, 6.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds a game.
Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s numbers and a Sunday night that comes first 
Flagg is carrying this team in his second season. The next-best season average I could find is P.J. Washington’s 13.6 points with 7.7 rebounds, and Daniel Gafford has scored 19.0 a game over his last two.
The Mavericks’ scoring and defensive figures came back identical before the Spurs game, 112.3 points scored and 112.3 allowed. They’re a middle-of-the-pack team in both directions, 16th and 14th, and the record reflects that.
Their best nights have come at home. Dallas beat Oklahoma City 120-96 on 28 October and Houston 116-111 on 30 October, when Flagg scored 33 and Kyrie Irving 35. The worst came on Monday, a 115-100 home loss to a Sacramento team that hadn’t won a game all season.
The first two weeks were just as uneven. Dallas lost 128-110 in Houston on 22 October and 122-106 at home to San Antonio on 24 October, then won 113-109 in Miami two days later. Walter Clayton Jr. scored 20 against Sacramento, one of the few bright spots in that defeat, and the bench will need more of that with a game the night before.
Irving’s left knee is being managed. He was doubtful for that Sacramento game before coming off the report on Tuesday, and a back-to-back is where a veteran on knee management tends to get a night off. I’d want his status before tip-off.
The frontcourt is short as well. Dereck Lively II is week-to-week with a foot injury, and Tarik Biberovic is week-to-week with a heel problem. Max Christie missed Wednesday’s game with a hip injury, and Santi Aldama was questionable with a knee problem.
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Indiana Pacers: 3-6, a Memphis win and a long list of names on the report 
Ten Pacers appeared on Monday’s injury report, and six were available in a 108-104 loss to Atlanta. Pascal Siakam was rested and Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith were managed that night, but all three came off the report on Tuesday.
The roster can’t be repaired from outside. Indiana has 14 players on standard contracts and can’t add a 15th under the first-apron hard cap, so the rotation has to survive on who’s healthy.
Nembhard leads the team at 18.5 points a game, with Obi Toppin at 15.2 and Nesmith at 12.2. Toppin has been dealing with a lumbar sprain and was described as getting closer to a return, while Ivica Zubac’s left ankle kept him out on Monday and left him questionable for Memphis.
The offseason additions have had to play bigger roles than planned. Kelly Oubre Jr. signed on 8 July, Larry Nance Jr. arrived on 9 July and rookie Braden Smith came over in a draft-night deal with Chicago on 24 June, while Zubac has been a Pacer since February. Nance missed Monday’s game with an illness before coming off the report on Tuesday.
Indiana scores 111.2 points a game and allows 114.2, both ranked 18th. Quenton Jackson has given it 8.7 points off the bench, and Jarace Walker 7.7 in his six bench outings. Those are the players absorbing the minutes that Haliburton and McConnell can’t.
Ben Sheppard had meniscus surgery on 28 October and may not return this season, and Johnny Furphy is out after ACL repair. Kelly Oubre Jr. was a late scratch on Monday with a bruised knee. Saturday’s game at altitude in Mexico City gives this group one more thing to carry into Dallas.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Indiana Pacers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers
Our prediction: Dallas Mavericks to win
I’d back Dallas at home. Flagg is scoring 25.2 a night, the Mavericks have already taken the first meeting, and Indiana’s two point guards are both on the injury report with hamstring problems.
The case against is the back-to-back. Dallas plays Brooklyn at 7:30pm ET on Sunday, and it lost at home to Sacramento on Monday with Irving doubtful. If Irving sits again, this gets closer than a 4-4 team would like.
Indiana did win in Memphis on Wednesday, but it’s 3-6, allows 114.2 points and spends Saturday in Mexico City. I’ll take Flagg at home over a team still counting bodies.
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