- 1 San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders: minus-17 at home against one of the NHL’s stingiest defenses
- 2 San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s goals can’t cover 60 allowed
- 3 New York Islanders: Sorokin, Schaefer and 2.71 goals allowed
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders: minus-17 at home against one of the NHL’s stingiest defenses 
San Jose has scored 43 goals and allowed 60 through 17 games. The Sharks are 7-9-1, they’ve lost three straight and five of six, and the last of those defeats was a 7-2 loss in Los Angeles on Wednesday.
I can’t get past that goal difference, especially against a team built to keep games low. The Islanders visit SAP Center on Monday 9 November, puck drop 10:00pm ET, and they’ve allowed 38 goals in 14 games, or 2.71 a night, the fifth-best rate in the league.
New York was 7-5-2 going into Thursday’s home game with Carolina, and the numbers at the other end of the ice are thin. Its 39 goals tie it for 26th in the NHL, so this is unlikely to be a track meet unless San Jose’s defense makes it one.
Both teams have a heavy schedule first. The Sharks play in Minnesota on Friday and in Dallas on Saturday, while the Islanders host New Jersey on Saturday night and then cross the country.
San Jose’s road record, 4-3-1, is the surprise in its numbers. Take that away from 7-9-1 and the Sharks are 3-6-0 at home, which is the split that matters on Monday.
San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s goals can’t cover 60 allowed 
Macklin Celebrini scored on the power play at 5:07 of the second period on Wednesday, his sixth goal of the season. He had 16 points in 13 games going into that night, and he’s got four goals and five assists over the last 10.
Ivar Stenberg added the other power-play goal against the Kings, in the third period, and he’s up to four goals and six assists. Beyond those two, the supply has dropped. San Jose has averaged 2.5 goals over its last 10 games and gone 3-6-1 in them.
The Sharks haven’t been in control on the defensive side either. They’ve allowed 3.1 goals a game over that stretch, and Yaroslav Askarov finished with 20 saves in Los Angeles after Adrian Kempe’s hat trick in his return for the Kings.
The scoring has come and gone for weeks. Buffalo shut the Sharks out 2-0 on 27 October, a week after Celebrini had two goals and an assist in a 4-3 overtime win in Montreal. Darcy Kuemper made 30 saves against them on Wednesday, and the Sharks have now lost five of their last six.
Discipline is part of it. San Jose has taken 4.5 penalties a game over its last 10, and Saturday’s trip to Dallas comes against a penalty kill of 93.6%, so the Sharks won’t have much rest or momentum to bring home.
The injury list is long for a team this thin. Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goaltender Kyle Keyser are all out with upper-body injuries, which leaves Askarov with the bulk of the work behind a defense that’s already given up 60.
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New York Islanders: Sorokin, Schaefer and 2.71 goals allowed 
Ilya Sorokin is 6-4-0 with a 2.41 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage in 10 games. Semyon Varlamov has a 2.40 goals-against average and an .891 save percentage, and with a Saturday game on the schedule either could be in net.
Matthew Schaefer plays 26:48 a night and has four goals and 10 assists in 14 games. Bo Horvat also has 14 points, with seven goals and seven assists, and those two tie for the team lead.
The Islanders allow 26.2 shots a game, the 10th-fewest in the league, and they win 54.6% of their faceoffs, tied for third. That’s how a team with 39 goals stays above .500: it keeps the puck and keeps shooters outside.
Wednesday’s practice had Simon Holmstrom and Kyle Palmieri on Horvat’s wings, with Emil Heineman, Brayden Schenn and Victor Eklund behind them. Eklund has a team-high 39 hits in 14 games, and Heineman wasn’t suspended after his game misconduct for kneeing on 31 October, a night the Islanders were shorthanded a season-high six times.
Absences are the concern. Mathew Barzal and Matias Maccelli were practicing in a non-contact capacity on Wednesday and weren’t expected to play Thursday. Ryan Pulock is out two to four weeks with an upper-body injury, and Alexander Romanov is done for the season with a torn ACL.
New York beat Nashville 4-3 in a shootout on 28 October and won 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota the next night, before Edmonton shut it out 4-0 on 31 October. That Minnesota win came in a building where the Wild are 4-0-1.
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New York Islanders: Holmstrom, Horvat, Palmieri / Heineman, Schenn, Eklund / Palat, Pageau, Duclair / MacLean, Cizikas, Chaffee; Stanley, Schaefer / Pelech, DeAngelo / Kessel, Mayfield; Sorokin or Varlamov (lines from Wednesday’s practice, starter not announced)
Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders
Our prediction: New York Islanders to win
I’d take the Islanders. They allow 2.71 goals a game, San Jose has given up 60 in 17, and the Sharks are 3-6-0 at SAP Center with three straight defeats behind them and two more road games to play first.
What goes against me is travel and scoring. New York has 39 goals, plays on Saturday and then flies across the country without Barzal or Maccelli if they don’t return, and Celebrini can win a game on his own.
San Jose’s back-to-back in Minnesota and Dallas comes first, though, and a team averaging 2.5 goals over its last 10 is a poor bet to solve Sorokin. I’m backing the better defense.
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