- 1 CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: the Ligue 1 leaders head into a Bulgarian graveyard
- 2 CSKA Sofia: unbeaten in seven and scoring freely on home soil
- 3 Monaco: top of Ligue 1, Brunner available, but leaky on their European travels
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: the Ligue 1 leaders head into a Bulgarian graveyard 
Three trips to Bulgaria. Three defeats. That’s Monaco’s history in this country, and it’s not a footnote.
The Ligue 1 leaders open their Conference League league phase against CSKA Sofia on Thursday, October 15, kick-off 18:45 Paris time. It’s Monaco’s first ever appearance at this stage of the competition, and a long way from the glamour of last season’s Champions League nights.
Both clubs took a detour to get here. CSKA were thrashed 5-0 on aggregate by OFI Crete in the Europa League play-off and dropped down. Monaco got past Gornik Zabrze 7-3 over two legs, though they barely survived the first leg in Poland, winning 3-2, before a 4-1 home win settled it.
On paper, this is a mismatch. Monaco sit top of the French table under Filipe Luis, with a win at PSG and a 2-0 home win over Marseille already in the bag. CSKA are second in Bulgaria. Different leagues, different budgets, different worlds.
But here’s the thing. CSKA haven’t lost in seven since that OFI humbling. They beat their rivals Levski 4-2 away in the Super Cup. And historically, they’ve won both of their home European meetings with Monaco, back in the 1980s. Is history worth anything here? Maybe more than the market thinks.
We’re not convinced Monaco keep a clean sheet. We’re not convinced CSKA keep one either.
CSKA Sofia: unbeaten in seven and scoring freely on home soil 
The OFI tie was brutal. Five goals conceded across two legs, no reply. Markus Gisdol’s side looked a level below.
The response since has been impressive. Seven games unbeaten across all competitions. Two home wins on the bounce, with a combined 7-2 scoreline. Over their last 10 matches, CSKA are averaging 2.3 goals scored per game and have failed to score in just two of them.
The attack has options. Ioannis Pittas led the line with three goals in the Europa League qualifiers. Joel Zwarts has eight in the league this season. Mohamed Brahimi, born in Saint-Etienne, knows French football well. So does Jean-Philippe Gbamin, who collected more than 50 Ligue 1 appearances for Metz, Lens and Nantes.
The defence is a different story. CSKA have conceded 1.3 goals per game across that 10-match run and kept just two clean sheets. Both teams have scored in six of those 10. This isn’t a side built to sit in and suffer.
The European record at this stage doesn’t help them either. In their only previous league or group phase campaign in this competition, back in 2021-22, they collected one point: a 0-0 at home to Bodo/Glimt. The other two home games ended in one-goal defeats.
Still, at home, with a crowd behind them and form on their side, they’ll create chances. The question is whether they can stop Monaco doing the same.
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Monaco: top of Ligue 1, Brunner available, but leaky on their European travels 
Filipe Luis has made a flying start in the Principality. Monaco top Ligue 1, and the results that got them there are serious ones: 2-0 against Marseille, a 2-1 win at PSG, a 2-1 home win over Lens.
They’re not airtight, though. A 1-1 draw at Strasbourg and a 2-2 at home to Toulouse last weekend both showed a side that can be got at. Across their last 10 games, both teams have scored in six. Away from home, they’ve kept just one clean sheet in five.
The European travel record is the real concern. Monaco dropped points in each of their last two away games in a European league phase, both in the Champions League, including a 7-1 thrashing at Real Madrid. Different opposition, sure. But that’s a pattern.
There’s good news on the team sheet. Paris Brunner, their top scorer in Ligue 1, is suspended domestically but fully eligible in Europe. Expect him to lead the line. Aleksandr Golovin, who scored in the second leg against Gornik, should be in behind him.
Mamadou Coulibaly is doubtful with a knock, while Takumi Minamino is still working his way back from a long-term injury. Rotation is likely with a domestic schedule to protect, and that won’t help their defensive cohesion.
When Monaco score first, they don’t lose. That’s been true all season. The problem is they rarely shut the door completely.
Probable lineup CSKA Sofia: Lapoukhov; Pastor, Ivanov, Gbamin, Martino; Eto’o, Jordao, Ebong; Brahimi, Zwarts, Pittas
Probable lineup Monaco: Hradecky; Teze, Sane, Salisu, Mawissa; Camara, Zakaria; Diop, Golovin, Idumbo; Brunner
Free Conference League Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.83
CSKA score at home. They’ve put seven past their last two home opponents and have failed to score in only two of their last 10 games. Monaco, meanwhile, have kept one clean sheet in their last five away games and dropped points in each of their last two away European league-phase fixtures.
Monaco should have enough quality to find the net themselves. Brunner is fresh, motivated and available, and CSKA’s defence has shipped 1.3 goals per game over their last 10. That’s not a backline that shuts out the leaders of Ligue 1.
We’re not picking a winner here. We’re picking goals at both ends. Both teams to score at 1.83.
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