- 1 Hoffenheim vs Besiktas: a home side in freefall against the Eagles in full flight
- 2 Hoffenheim: a stoppage-time collapse against Hamburg and a defence that can’t close games out
- 3 Besiktas: Marseille thrashed, second in the Super Lig, and Italiano’s side are scoring freely
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Hoffenheim vs Besiktas
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hoffenheim vs Besiktas: a home side in freefall against the Eagles in full flight 
Beaten in Crete. Beaten in Paderborn. Beaten at home by Hamburg. That’s Hoffenheim’s recent story, and nobody in Sinsheim is pretending otherwise.
Christian Ilzer’s side host Besiktas at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena on Thursday, October 15, kick-off 21:00 Paris time. It’s the first competitive meeting between these two clubs. And on current form, the visitors arrive with far more reason for confidence.
Look at matchday one. Hoffenheim lost 2-0 away to OFI Crete, a result that was rightly called humiliating for a Bundesliga club. On the same night, Besiktas tore Marseille apart, winning 4-1 in Istanbul. Two very different starts. Two very different moods.
Domestically, it’s the same split. Hoffenheim lost 3-1 at Paderborn, then threw away a lead against Hamburg on Saturday, conceding a stoppage-time winner to go down 3-2 at home. Besiktas, meanwhile, beat Kocaelispor 2-1 on Sunday and climbed to second in the Super Lig.
So why are Hoffenheim still favourites? Home advantage, and the Bundesliga badge. The market prices them at 1.90, with Besiktas at 3.50 and the draw at 3.90. That doesn’t bear close inspection.
We’ve seen enough of both sides to take the other view.
Hoffenheim: a stoppage-time collapse against Hamburg and a defence that can’t close games out 
Saturday’s loss to Hamburg told you everything about where Hoffenheim are mentally. They went behind to a Yussuf Poulsen goal after 12 minutes, levelled through a Sebastiaan Bornauw own goal deep into first-half stoppage time, then took the lead through Bambasé Conté on 53 minutes.
Then it fell apart. Bernardo was sent off on 65 minutes. Terem Moffi equalised on 83. Miro Muheim won it in the fourth minute of stoppage time. A lead at home, thrown away. That’s a problem they haven’t solved.
The trend is ugly. A 2-0 defeat in Crete. A 3-1 loss at Paderborn. Then Hamburg. Eight goals conceded across those three defeats. Hoffenheim have also conceded in each of their last five European matches, which tells you this isn’t a one-off wobble.
The OFI result in particular makes for uncomfortable reading. Losing to the Greek Cup holders isn’t a disaster in isolation. Failing to score against them is a warning sign for an attack that should be doing far better.
Ilzer has to find a response quickly. A Bundesliga side under pressure, at home, in front of supporters who’ve just watched a lead disappear? That’s not an environment that breeds calm.
Can they flip the switch in five days? We doubt it.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Besiktas: Marseille thrashed, second in the Super Lig, and Italiano’s side are scoring freely 
Four goals against Marseille. Vincenzo Italiano’s side didn’t just beat a Ligue 1 club on matchday one, they dismantled them. It set the tone for a campaign the Black Eagles clearly want to take seriously.
The league form has followed. Sunday’s 2-1 win over Kocaelispor lifted Besiktas to 15 points and second place. Orkun Kökçü opened the scoring with a strike from outside the box after 18 minutes. Kocaelispor levelled through Show, then Dusan Vlahovic restored the lead from the spot on 31 minutes. Job done.
That attacking spine is the difference here. Kökçü dictates from midfield, Vlahovic finishes. Few sides at this level have that kind of quality through the middle.
There’s one concern. Vaclav Cerny had to come off injured after 39 minutes on Sunday, replaced by İlhan Fakılı. His fitness will need checking, though Italiano has depth out wide with Fakılı and Rashica among the options.
The schedule is busy. A trip to Trabzonspor follows on October 19, and Italiano will manage minutes carefully. But earlier in the cycle, the club signalled no major changes for this trip to Germany, given how important that opening win over Marseille was.
The only blemish lately was a defeat to Amed before the international break. They’ve responded since. A side that knows what it’s about.
Probable lineup Hoffenheim: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Besiktas: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: Hoffenheim vs Besiktas
Our prediction: Besiktas or draw (double chance) @ 1.91
Hoffenheim have lost to OFI, Paderborn and Hamburg, conceding eight goals in those three games, and finished Saturday a man down after blowing a lead. Besiktas scored four against Marseille in their only Europa League outing and bounced back from the Amed defeat with a win on Sunday. The form gap points one way, and the market hasn’t caught up.
The home crowd might lift Hoffenheim early, but this is a team that’s struggling to hold its shape for 90 minutes. Kökçü and Vlahovic are exactly the kind of players who punish that. Even a draw wouldn’t surprise us.
At 1.91, Besiktas double chance is the value play. We’re taking the visitors not to lose.
in your pocket.
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