- 1 Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: an unbeaten Belgian machine against a leaky La Real
- 2 Union Saint-Gilloise: unbeaten in eight, but without their top scorer
- 3 Real Sociedad: two wins on the bounce, 11 goals conceded in six
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: an unbeaten Belgian machine against a leaky La Real 
Seventeen goals scored, three conceded. That’s Union Saint-Gilloise across their last six matches in all competitions, and it’s the number that frames Thursday’s Europa League meeting with Real Sociedad at Den Dreef (18:45 Paris time).
Now flip it. Real Sociedad have conceded 11 times over the same six-game stretch. They’ve won three of those games, and in every one of the three they let in two goals. Elche, Valencia, Deportivo La Coruna: all 3-2 wins. That’s a side scoring its way out of trouble rather than defending its way out of it.
The context makes it sharper. Union opened the league phase with a 3-0 win in Plzen, a clean sheet on the road against Viktoria. Real Sociedad opened theirs by losing 2-1 at home to Bournemouth, a result that still stings in San Sebastian. One side sits on three points with a +3 goal difference. The other is chasing its first point.
Union didn’t plan to be here. They dropped out of Champions League qualifying against Bodo/Glimt in the third round, and the Europa League was the consolation. It hasn’t felt like one. David Hubert’s side are unbeaten in eight in all competitions, with six wins, and they’ve scored in five consecutive Europa League games.
There’s no previous meeting between these clubs. No history to lean on, no psychological edge either way. Just two very different trends heading in opposite directions.
Can Real Sociedad’s attack outrun its own defence again? The data says that’s a risky bet to keep making.
Union Saint-Gilloise: unbeaten in eight, but without their top scorer 
Raul Florucz won’t play. The striker has six goals in all competitions this season, more than anyone else at the club, and he’s suspended for Thursday. That’s the one genuine dent in Union’s preparation.
The rest of the picture is strong. Sint-Truiden 0-3, Charleroi 2-3, Lommel 5-0, Plzen 0-3, Antwerp 0-2. Five straight wins before last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Leuven, which left them fourth in the Belgian top flight on 20 points from eight matches. Away from home they’ve been ruthless. At home they put five past Lommel without reply.
The absentee list is long. Kevin Mac Allister (knee), Ross Sykes (shoulder), Adem Zorgane (groin), Kevin Rodriguez and Ilan Hurtevent are all missing. That’s a lot of bodies. Hubert has still found a way to keep the defensive record intact, though: three goals conceded in six games tells you the structure holds whoever plays.
Without Florucz, the attacking load shifts. Relebohile Mofokeng has four goals in ten appearances this season, and the 21-year-old should start in the final third alongside Mateo Biondic, who scored in Plzen. Darius Olaru is the creative hub; he and Mofokeng have carved out the most chances for this side in the competition so far.
The last time Union played in this tournament, in 2024-25, they reached the knockout round playoffs before Ajax knocked them out. This group looks at least as well drilled. Credit where it’s due: Hubert has built a side that knows what it’s about.
Losing a six-goal striker hurts. It doesn’t change the shape of this team.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Real Sociedad: two wins on the bounce, 11 goals conceded in six 
The table looks fine. Sixth in La Liga on 13 points, back-to-back wins over Valencia and Deportivo La Coruna. Look closer and it doesn’t bear close inspection.
Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side lost 3-0 at home to Atletico Madrid, then lost 2-1 at home to Bournemouth on Europa League matchday one. Since then they’ve won twice, both times 3-2. The goals are coming, but so are the goals against, and a side that concedes two every week can ill afford to travel to a team averaging nearly three a game.
Luka Sucic is the club’s top scorer with three. That tells its own story. Mikel Oyarzabal, the captain and the man everything runs through, is still waiting for his first goal of the campaign. He’s been dropping deep to create rather than finish, which helps the build-up but leaves the box short.
Injuries are light by comparison with Union’s. Alvaro Odriozola (knee) and Jon Aramburu (calf) are out, both on the right side of defence. That matters more than it looks. With both senior right-backs missing, the flank Union like to attack through Mofokeng becomes a live question.
La Real only qualified for this competition through their Copa del Rey win, after finishing 10th last season. Their European pedigree is real: 83 previous Europa League matches, 37 wins, a last-16 run in 2024-25. Pedigree doesn’t defend a back post, though.
Another away defeat would leave them on zero points after two games. That’s pressure. Whether it sharpens them or exposes them further is the real question.
Probable lineup Union Saint-Gilloise: Koffi; Havenaar, Sylla, Kricfalusi; Van De Perre; Patris, Zeneli, Olaru, Guilherme Smith; Mofokeng, Biondic
Probable lineup Real Sociedad: Marrero; Fort, Martin, Sarr, Gomez; Turrientes, Herrera, Sucic; Guedes, Oyarzabal, Barrenetxea
Free Europa League Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Our prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise draw no bet (odds 1.80)
The case builds from both ends. Union have conceded three goals in six games and kept a clean sheet away in Plzen. Real Sociedad have conceded 11 in six and lost their only Europa League match so far, at home. Put a disciplined, confident home side against a defence that’s shipped two in each of its last three wins, and the edge is clear.
Florucz’s suspension is the reason we’re not simply backing the home win. It takes away a six-goal finisher and leaves more on Mofokeng and Biondic. Real Sociedad also carry enough in attack, with Sucic and Oyarzabal, to make a draw a realistic outcome. Draw no bet covers that scenario and still pays 1.80.
Union are unbeaten in eight, have scored in five straight Europa League games and face a visitor missing both senior right-backs. The numbers point to the Belgians. We’re taking them with the stake protected.
in your pocket.
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