- 1 Cowboys vs Broncos: a crucial Queensland derby
- 2 The Cowboys hit the wall at the worst time
- 3 The Broncos answer like champions
- 4 A battle of intent for a finals place
- 5 NRL prediction Cowboys vs Broncos
- 6 First, a note on our predictions
- 7 No commitment from us
- 8 Information can change
- 9 Your role
- 10 Responsible gambling first
- 11 Legal age
- 12 About the images…
Cowboys vs Broncos: a crucial Queensland derby 
On Saturday night, the classic Queensland derby between the Cowboys and the Broncos brings the NRL round to a close.
On one side, the Cowboys are trying to cling on to a spot in the Top 8 despite wildly inconsistent form. On the other, the Broncos jolted their season back to life with a statement win last week and simply have to back it up if they want to keep their finals hopes alive.
It is a historic matchup between two major rivals, and defeat is not an option if either side wants to avoid an early slide into a grim end to the season.
The Cowboys hit the wall at the worst time 
For a while, it looked like the Cowboys might pull off a big result on the Dolphins’ turf. But after a promising start, despite a small half-time deficit at 12-10, the momentum swung hard after the break and ended in a heavy 36-16 loss.
A lack of ball has made it impossible for North Queensland to build pressure, with just 44% possession. But the real concern is the defensive mess: 9.1 metres conceded per carry, 10 line breaks allowed and 55 missed tackles. At that rate, a top-eight spot will not last much longer.
That said, the Cowboys remain a tough side at home. Back in front of their own fans for the first time since that huge win over Penrith, the game that marked Jason Taumalolo’s 300th appearance, they will be desperate to show a very different face.
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The Broncos answer like champions 
Something had to give, and it finally did. After a heroic battle, the Broncos stunned Penrith on their own patch, 14-12, wiping out the damage from their early-season slip and keeping their campaign alive.
Everything this side had been missing for months suddenly came back. Ruthless after the interval, Michael Maguire’s men took control of the ball with 57% possession and smashed through the Panthers’ line with 729 metres gained after contact. At the other end, the defence stood up with only 18 missed tackles across the match.
That win over the competition leaders has given the 2025 champions a massive lift. The real test now is whether Brisbane can prove it was not a one-off but the new baseline for the run-in.
A battle of intent for a finals place
If history remembers the Cowboys’ famous 2015 win over the Broncos, Brisbane has since taken back control, claiming their seventh title last year. Their title defence has been a rollercoaster, but last week’s result has completely changed the picture.
North Queensland are still sitting in eighth, but their margin for error is now almost gone. The middle battle will decide this one: if the Cowboys serve up the same defensive softness they showed against the Dolphins, the Broncos now have the physical edge and the confidence to do the job away from home.
NRL prediction Cowboys vs Broncos
Broncos to win
Even with the Cowboys back at home, last week’s defensive collapse against the Dolphins raises serious doubts against a Brisbane attack that suddenly looks back in business.
The Broncos rediscovered their intensity, their discipline and a brutal physical edge in the middle when they beat the Panthers. If they bring that same control and aggression to the contest, they have more than enough to follow it up and take this derby.
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Information can change
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About the images…
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