- 1 Castres Olympique vs Stade Francais Paris: the Parisians travel without a win on the road and without their hooker
- 2 Castres Olympique: 55 points conceded in three games at Pierre-Fabre
- 3 Stade Francais Paris: 100 points shipped on three away trips and a front row down a man
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Castres Olympique vs Stade Francais Paris
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Castres Olympique vs Stade Francais Paris: the Parisians travel without a win on the road and without their hooker 
Lucas Peyresblanques was carried off at Jean-Bouin on 10 October with a fractured fibula and had surgery the next day. Stade Français beat Montpellier 30-22 that afternoon, but Noah Nene (ankle) and Yoan Tanga (ribs) had already gone off injured in the first half.
They travel to Castres on Saturday with a record that splits cleanly down the middle. Three home games, three wins. Three away games, three defeats, at Clermont, Bordeaux-Bègles and Bayonne.
Castres are 13th on nine points, one place above Vannes, with two wins from six. Both came at the Stade Pierre-Fabre, where the only visitor to win this season was Stade Toulousain, by 8-7.
The bookmakers have Castres at 1.60 and the Parisians at 2.40. I’d side with the home team, and the away record is the main reason.
Kick-off is 3.35pm UK time on Saturday 24 October, one of four round-seven games starting at the same time.
Stade Français finished third in last season’s regular season and lost their semi-final to Montpellier. Castres finished tenth. Six rounds into this campaign, the gap between them is five points in the table, and all three of the Parisians’ wins have come at Jean-Bouin.
Castres Olympique: 55 points conceded in three games at Pierre-Fabre 
Castres beat Vannes 29-20 on the opening night and edged Toulon 29-27 a fortnight later, both at home. Their third home game was the 8-7 defeat to Toulouse on 3 October, which earned the only bonus point they’ve collected all season.
Away from home it’s gone badly: 29-43 at Perpignan, 6-20 at Clermont and 26-35 at Pau. That’s 61 points scored and 98 conceded across three trips.
The defeat at Pau on 10 October hurt most. Christian Ambadiang and Teddy Durand scored before the break, Théo Vidal kicked three penalties and Castres led 17-13 at half-time. They had possession for a winning score at the end, lost it, and Pau went the length of the field after the siren.
At home, Castres have conceded 55 points in three games at Pierre-Fabre, an average of just over 18, and no visiting side has scored more than 27 there.
They also opened their Challenge Cup campaign with an 18-9 win over Benetton the previous weekend, their first win of any kind since 19 September.
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Stade Francais Paris: 100 points shipped on three away trips and a front row down a man 
Paul Gustard’s side have won all three games at Jean-Bouin: 28-26 against Perpignan, 31-10 against Lyon and 30-22 against Montpellier.
On the road they’ve conceded 100 points in three games. Clermont won 25-16, Bordeaux-Bègles 40-10 and Bayonne 35-32, and the Parisians have scored 58 points away from home in total.
The Montpellier win showed what they can do in Paris. It was 16-15 at half-time, Alvereti Duguivalu scored on 53 minutes and Léo Barré’s interception try on 77 minutes settled it, with Paul Alo-Emile and Tani Vili carrying hard all afternoon.
The cost of that afternoon is still being counted. Peyresblanques is sidelined after his operation, while Nene and Tanga both left the field before half-time.
Gustard sent a heavily rotated side to the Bulls in the Champions Cup, and it lost 56-20. Whether Nene and Tanga are fit for Pierre-Fabre hadn’t been confirmed when this was written.
Their 14 points have come from three wins and two bonus points, with a points difference of minus 11. Every one of those wins was earned in Paris.
Probable lineup Castres Olympique: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Stade Francais Paris: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Castres Olympique vs Stade Francais Paris
Our prediction: Castres Olympique to win (1.60)
Stade Français haven’t won away from Paris this season, and they arrive without their first-choice hooker and with two more forwards who went off injured last time out in the Top 14. Castres have won two of three at home and lost the other by a single point to the league leaders.
The Parisians are the better side over six rounds, three wins to two and five points clear in the table. On a trip south with a reshaped front row, I’d expect most of that edge to disappear.
I’m backing Castres to win at 1.60. Their home defence has given up 55 points in three games, and Stade Français have scored 58 in their three away matches.
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