- 1 RC Toulon vs Section Paloise: Pau have already won at Montpellier and Vannes, and Mayol is next
- 2 RC Toulon: 130 scored, 130 conceded and Azéma alone in charge
- 3 Section Paloise: 239 points in six games and the one bad night at Lyon
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: RC Toulon vs Section Paloise
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
RC Toulon vs Section Paloise: Pau have already won at Montpellier and Vannes, and Mayol is next 
Pau won 43-40 at Vannes on 3 October, four weeks after beating Montpellier 27-19 on their own ground on the opening night of the season. Those two away wins are a big part of why the Béarnais sit second in the Top 14 on 22 points, two behind Stade Toulousain, with five wins from six.
Toulon are 10th on 12 points after two wins and four defeats. The bookmakers still make them clear favourites for Saturday night at Mayol, with the home win at 1.41 and Pau out at 2.95.
I don’t buy the 1.41. Toulon’s home record this season reads two wins and a defeat, and the wins came against Vannes, who haven’t won a game, and a Racing 92 side who’ve lost four of six. When a side in form came to Mayol, Stade Rochelais left with a 21-20 win on 12 September.
Kick-off is 8pm UK time on Saturday 24 October, the last of the six Saturday games in round seven.
Both clubs come off European wins. Pau beat Leicester 41-17 at the Hameau in the Champions Cup, while Toulon, who finished ninth last season and missed out on the top competition, won 27-17 at Edinburgh in the Challenge Cup.
Toulon’s season has an odd shape in the table. They’ve scored 130 points and conceded 130, a points difference of exactly zero, and four of their 12 points have come from bonus points.
RC Toulon: 130 scored, 130 conceded and Azéma alone in charge 
Toulon lost their first three Top 14 games by a combined four points: 26-27 at Bayonne, 20-21 at home to La Rochelle and 27-29 at Castres.
A 28-10 win over Vannes followed on 26 September. Then came a 28-0 defeat in Montpellier on 4 October, and within days director of rugby Pierre Mignoni was gone. Franck Azéma has run the side on his own since.
His first game in sole charge was a 29-15 win over Racing 92 on 10 October. Jean-Baptiste Gros and Teddy Baubigny scored the tries, and Tomas Albornoz kicked 19 points, five of his penalties coming after half-time.
That was a fly-half’s win, built on territory and goal-kicking. Pau scored 35 against Castres and 70 against Bayonne at the Hameau, and a kicking game alone won’t keep pace with that.
Toulon’s two wins have both come at home, by 18 points against Vannes and 14 against Racing. Three of their four defeats came on the road, and the one at Mayol was by a single point.
Against the top five this season, Toulon have lost to Bayonne and La Rochelle, both by a single point. They haven’t yet played Toulouse, Bordeaux-Bègles or Pau.
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Section Paloise: 239 points in six games and the one bad night at Lyon 
Pau have scored 239 points in six Top 14 games, close to 40 a match. The 70-28 win over Bayonne on 12 September inflates that number, but they’ve also put 43 on Vannes and 39 on La Rochelle.
The one defeat was a heavy one: 51-25 at Lyon on 19 September. It’s the only time this season the defence has come apart, and Pau have won all three Top 14 games since.
The last of them showed a side that can win without playing well. Castres led 17-13 at half-time at the Hameau on 10 October and had the ball for a winning attack at the end. Hugo Auradou won a turnover near the Pau 22, and Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang finished the counter after the siren for a 35-26 win.
Émilien Gailleton scored early in the second half that day and Facundo Isa added another on 59 minutes, so tries are coming from the centres and the back row as well as the wings.
Away from home, Pau have won two of three. The 27-19 win in Montpellier is the one I’d point to, because Montpellier went on to beat Toulon 28-0 on the same pitch a month later.
Pau’s 22 points include only two bonus points, so almost everything has come from winning. Their five wins include victories over La Rochelle, fourth, and Bayonne, fifth.
Last season ended with a quarter-final defeat to Racing 92. Since then they’ve beaten Leicester 41-17 in the Champions Cup and climbed to within two points of top spot.
Probable lineup RC Toulon: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Section Paloise: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: RC Toulon vs Section Paloise
Our prediction: Section Paloise to win (2.95)
Toulon at 1.41 are priced on the venue and on the Racing result. Their three home games produced wins over the 12th and 14th-placed sides and a one-point defeat to the only strong team that visited.
Albornoz’s boot keeps Toulon in most games, and a losing bonus point for the hosts wouldn’t surprise me. Pau still arrive with five wins from six, 239 points scored and away wins at Montpellier and Vannes already banked.
At 2.95, the second-placed side is the bet, and I’m backing Pau to win at Mayol.
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