- 1 Brighton vs Crystal Palace: the Premier League’s form side against a derby hoodoo
- 2 Brighton: a five-game winning run and Pascal Gross still pulling the strings
- 3 Crystal Palace: Yeremy Pino scoring, but the defence is stretched thin
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Brighton vs Crystal Palace: the Premier League’s form side against a derby hoodoo 
Brighton have scored 16 goals in five competitive home matches this season. That’s the number that frames Sunday’s M23 derby at the Amex (kick-off 15:00 Paris time), and it’s a big one.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side are third in the Premier League with 13 points from six games, trailing only Manchester City and Arsenal. They’ve won five in a row across all competitions and lost just once in ten (W7 D2). Thursday’s 4-0 win over Kauno Zalgiris in the Conference League, headlined by a Georginio Rutter brace, was their third four-goal win at home already this term.
And yet there’s a catch. Brighton haven’t beaten Crystal Palace since February 2024. Palace are unbeaten in the last four meetings, winning three and drawing one, and Hurzeler himself has described a derby win as the one thing still missing from his time at the club.
Palace come in with more questions than answers. Pierre Sage has admitted the start to his tenure has been unstable, and the numbers back him up: three league defeats from six, including losses to Everton, Manchester City and Ipswich. Their three-game unbeaten run ended on Thursday with a 3-2 defeat at Lyon, Sage’s old club.
Still, last Sunday’s 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest showed there’s something there. Palace are chasing back-to-back league wins for the first time since December 2025.
So which matters more: Brighton’s current form or Palace’s recent grip on this fixture? The squads aren’t close right now. Derby records can only do so much.
Brighton: a five-game winning run and Pascal Gross still pulling the strings 
Pascal Gross is 35 and playing some of the best football of his career. Seven goal contributions in six league games tells you everything you need to know about how central he’s been to this start.
The league results have been emphatic. A 4-0 win over Aston Villa, 5-0 at Coventry, 3-0 against Arsenal and 2-0 at Sunderland last weekend. The only defeat was a wild 4-3 loss at Chelsea, and the only other dropped points came in a 1-1 draw with Leeds.
Brighton are chasing four consecutive Premier League wins for only the second time in the club’s history. Five wins on the spin does things for a dressing room. Brighton look like a side that fully expects to score.
The injury list isn’t empty, though. Kaoru Mitoma is still out with a hamstring problem and isn’t expected back until after the November international break. Pascal Struijk is set to be assessed on Saturday before a decision is made on his availability.
Mats Wieffer and Yankuba Minteh are both short of full fitness, and there’s been mixed messaging over whether either can be involved. Femi Azeez, the summer arrival from Millwall, is yet to feature because of a muscle injury.
None of that has stopped them so far. The depth is there. With Rutter in form off the back of Thursday and Gross running the midfield, Brighton have enough to hurt anyone at the Amex.
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Crystal Palace: Yeremy Pino scoring, but the defence is stretched thin 
Axel Disasi serves the last game of his red-card suspension. Chadi Riad is out with a knee injury. Takehiro Tomiyasu has missed the last two games with a calf problem. That’s a lot of defensive absences for a side about to face the league’s most dangerous home attack.
Dean Henderson missed the Lyon defeat and is targeting a return for Sunday. If he doesn’t make it, Walter Benitez is the likely deputy. Either way, the back line in front of him won’t be at full strength.
The attack is in better shape. Yeremy Pino scored against both Forest and Lyon, and he seems to have responded well to the extra competition created by Ismaila Sarr’s return from injury. That’s a real positive for Sage.
Up front, Jean-Philippe Mateta’s hamstring problems mean Jorgen Strand Larsen should lead the line again. He’s a willing runner and he works the channels, but he isn’t the same focal point Mateta can be.
Seven points from six, three defeats. It’s not a record to shout about. Seven points from six games, and three defeats already, two of them at Selhurst Park. A 2-3 home loss to Ipswich takes some explaining.
The derby record is their best argument. Palace know how to frustrate Brighton, and that won’t have been lost on Sage this week.
Probable lineup Brighton & Hove Albion: Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Vuskovic, Struijk, Boscagli; Gross, Andres, Gomez, Ayari, De Cuyper; Kostoulas
Probable lineup Crystal Palace: Henderson; Lerma, Richards, Canvot; Khalaili, Timber, Wharton, Mitchell; Kamada, Pino, Strand Larsen
Free Premier League Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
Our prediction: Brighton to win
Brighton are third, on a five-game winning run and averaging more than three goals a game at the Amex. Palace have lost half their league games and are missing several defenders. There’s a real gap between these sides right now.
Palace’s recent derby record deserves respect, and it’s the main reason this isn’t a more confident call. But Disasi’s suspension, Riad’s injury and doubts over Tomiyasu and Henderson leave them exposed against a side that’s put four past three different visitors this season.
Gross is in superb form, Rutter arrives full of confidence, and the crowd will be up for it. We expect Brighton to end their derby drought and take the three points.
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