- 1 Benfica vs Alverca: six straight wins over Monday’s visitors, and two of them sent off
- 2 Benfica: five wins in a row, 26 league goals, and two midfielders missing
- 3 Alverca: eight away goals in four games, but two suspended and four injured
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Benfica vs Alverca
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Benfica vs Alverca: six straight wins over Monday’s visitors, and two of them sent off 
Benfica have won their last six meetings with Alverca and scored at least twice in every one of them. Both games last season finished 2-1, and the seventh is at the Estádio da Luz on Monday 2 November, kick-off 20:15 UK time.
The table explains why Benfica can’t afford to drop anything. They’re second on 22 points from nine games, five behind a Porto side that has won all nine. One slip on a Monday night and the gap starts to look permanent by Christmas.
Alverca come in eighth on 11 points, six off the continental places. That’s one point and four places better than at this stage last season, when they were back in the top flight for the first time in 22 years.
They’ve also lost their last two without scoring. Arouca won 1-0 at their ground, then Tondela knocked them out of the Taça de Portugal 2-0 after extra time.
And they arrive short. Steven Baseya was sent off six minutes into the Arouca game and André Vidigal also saw red, so both are suspended, and four more players are injured.
I’m not interested in the 1X2 here. Benfica are priced at 1.14 to win, and the real question is whether Alverca can score. Their away record says they can.
Benfica: five wins in a row, 26 league goals, and two midfielders missing 
Marco Silva’s side have won five straight in all competitions, scoring 16 and conceding four. The latest was a 4-1 win over Gil Vicente in the Taça da Liga quarter-finals, a few days after a 2-1 league win at Santa Clara.
The 3-1 defeat at Porto before the international break is the only real dent. Since then they’ve beaten Guimarães 2-0 and gone on a European run that includes 4-1 wins over Omonia and Celtic and a 2-0 win over AC Milan.
Nobody in the league has scored more than their 26 goals after nine rounds. Vangelis Pavlidis has nine goals and three assists this season, and Gianluca Prestianni has six goals and four assists from the right.
At home they’ve won three and drawn one of four league games. The draw came on matchday one against newly promoted Académico de Viseu, and it’s the only time a visiting side has left the Luz with a league point this season.
Enzo Barrenechea is still recovering from knee surgery and Leandro Barreiro, who has two league goals, is injured. Daniel Banjaqui is a doubt with a muscle problem and Jakub Kaminski’s fitness isn’t clear. Jhon Durán was sent off after the final whistle at Santa Clara, but no sanction has been confirmed and he should be available.
The likely shape has Aursnes and Palhinha screening the back four, with Rafa Silva, Sudakov and Prestianni behind Pavlidis.
Benfica finished third last season and missed out on the Champions League. A second year outside it would cost Silva far more than a bad Monday.
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Alverca: eight away goals in four games, but two suspended and four injured 
Sérgio Ferreira’s side were in decent shape a fortnight ago. They won 3-1 at Nacional, 1-0 at home to Rio Ave and 4-1 at Famalicão in a run that took them into the top half.
The last two games have taken the shine off. A 1-0 home defeat to Arouca, played almost entirely with ten men after Baseya’s early red card, was followed by the cup exit at Tondela.
Their away form is the reason I give them a goal on Monday. They’ve scored eight times in four league trips, won their last two on the road, and their only away defeats came at Porto and Sporting.
Dawda Camará and Vivaldo Semedo have three league goals each, and Chiquinho has two goals and two assists from midfield. That’s a spread of threats rather than one man to mark.
The absences hurt more at the back. Bastien Meupiyou, Noah Raveyre, Sabit Abdulai and Julian Martínez are all injured, and with Baseya and Vidigal suspended, Ferreira has very little room to rotate against the league’s highest scorers.
That three-game run before the slump produced eight goals, and the only clean sheet in it came in the 1-0 over Rio Ave. Add the Arouca and Tondela defeats and it’s one clean sheet in their last five competitive games.
I’d want a lot more than a 1-0 at home to Rio Ave before trusting this defence at the Luz.
Probable lineup Benfica: Soares; Bah, Araújo, Lenglet, Dahl; Aursnes, Palhinha; Rafa Silva, Sudakov, Prestianni; Pavlidis
Probable lineup Alverca: M. Mendes; Bojang, Gomez, James; Spence, R. Lucas, Gui, Chissumba; Chiquinho, Camará, Figueiredo
Free Football Prediction: Benfica vs Alverca
Our prediction: Benfica to win and both teams to score
Benfica at 1.14 isn’t a bet, it’s a formality, and even a Benfica win with over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.37. I’d rather take the angle that pays and still fits the evidence: Benfica win, Alverca score.
Six straight wins in this fixture, five straight in all competitions and a home crowd that expects a response to Porto’s pace all point to the hosts. Pavlidis and Prestianni have 15 goals between them this season, and Alverca’s back line is missing four injured players and two suspended ones.
The goal at the other end is the part to justify. Alverca have scored in each of their recent away wins, eight goals in four league trips, and Benfica have conceded four times in their five-game winning run. Both meetings last season ended 2-1, and I’d back something very close to that again.
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