- 1 Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: bottom of the Premier League, unbeaten in Europe
- 2 Sunderland: one league goal since September, two wins and a draw in Europe
- 3 Dinamo Zagreb: Beljo’s 17 goals and a 4-2 home defeat to NEC
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: bottom of the Premier League, unbeaten in Europe
Enzo Le Fée’s penalty at Coventry on Saturday was Sunderland’s first Premier League goal since 20 September. It came in the 67th minute with the side already 3-0 down, and it didn’t stop a 3-1 defeat that leaves Régis Le Bris’s team bottom of the table on five points.
Europe has been a different competition for them. Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar at home on the opening night, won 2-1 in Portugal against Torreense and drew 1-1 in Poznań with Lech. That’s seven points from three games and no defeat.
Dinamo Zagreb arrive at the Stadium of Light on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:00 UK time, with around 2,400 supporters behind them.
The Croatian champions sit 18th in the league phase after a draw, a win and a defeat. That defeat was the worry: they lost 4-2 at home to NEC Nijmegen on 22 October.
Le Bris put the split well after Coventry. He said his side had been good in the Europa League, and described the Premier League as relentless. The Europa League is where Sunderland have actually picked up results.
The maths matter at this stage of the league phase. A home win would lift Sunderland to ten points after four games, while Dinamo would be stuck on four with half the schedule gone.
I’d back Sunderland to get there, even with the league form what it is.
Sunderland: one league goal since September, two wins and a draw in Europe 
The Coventry defeat followed a pattern Sunderland know too well this season. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto scored on 17 minutes, Taiwo Awoniyi on 37 and Jack Rudoni on 52, and Sunderland only got going once the game had gone. Omar Alderete was sent off for a second booking deep into stoppage time.
Strip out the penalty and Sunderland’s expected goals came to 0.80, against 0.71 for Coventry. They weren’t overrun. They just couldn’t finish, and Brian Brobbey’s 21st-minute miss was the best example.
Alderete’s red card is a Premier League matter, so he should be available on Thursday. Dan Ballard and Romaine Mundle weren’t fit to face Coventry, and Habib Diarra and Nordi Mukiele are also working their way back from injury.
The cup run tells a better story than the league. Sunderland beat Brentford 3-2 at home in the Carabao Cup fourth round on 28 October, three days after a goalless home draw with Leeds.
In Europe the side has looked organised. They won 2-1 away at Torreense on 15 October and came back from Poland with a 1-1 a week later, a point that keeps them unbeaten after three rounds.
At Coventry the starting XI was Roefs; Hume, Alderete, O’Nien, Mandava; Sakidi, Xhaka; Rigg, Le Fée, Angulo; Brobbey. Xhaka and Le Fée set the tempo from midfield, and Le Bris has no reason to change that pairing on Thursday.
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Dinamo Zagreb: Beljo’s 17 goals and a 4-2 home defeat to NEC 
Dion Beljo has 17 goals this season: 12 in the Croatian league, two in Champions League qualifying and three in the Europa League. Beljo scored both goals in a 2-0 league win on 31 July and has been the focal point of Kovačević’s attack since.
Mario Kovačević’s side are second domestically, with three wins from their last five league games. Dinamo are the champions and the most successful club in Croatia, with 26 league titles.
The domestic start was strong. At the end of August they had ten points from four league games, three wins and a draw, with 11 goals scored and three conceded. They’ve since moved up to second, and the league isn’t the problem for this squad.
Their European autumn has been patchy. They beat Kauno Žalgiris 2-1 away in the third qualifying round, drew 2-2 at home to Viking in the play-off first leg, then lost the second leg 3-1 in Norway and dropped into this competition.
The league phase began with a 0-0 at Hapoel Be’er Sheva on 16 September. They beat Anderlecht 1-0 in Zagreb on 15 October, then conceded four at home to NEC a week later.
Across six European games this season, qualifiers included, Dinamo have conceded ten goals. Their only clean sheets came against Be’er Sheva and Anderlecht, and neither of those games produced more than one goal.
The summer also cost them depth. Sandro Kulenović went to Torino and Monsef Bakrar to Al Ahly, and Marko Soldo and Gonzalo Villar left as well, for a net profit of around €7.25m.
Probable lineup Sunderland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dinamo Zagreb: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Our prediction: Sunderland to win (1.45)
I know how this looks. Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League and have one league goal in six weeks. Backing them at 1.45 means trusting the Europa League version of the side over the one that lost at Coventry.
I do trust it. They’re unbeaten after three European games, two of them away, and they beat Brentford 3-2 at home on 28 October. Coventry’s expected goals came to 0.71 on Saturday. Sunderland created more than that and still lost, which says more about their finishing than their structure.
Dinamo have conceded ten goals in six European games this season, four of them at home to NEC. With the draw at 4.60 and Dinamo at 6.50, I’ll take Sunderland to win at the Stadium of Light.
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