- 1 Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves: a first league defeat for the leaders, and a visitor without a win since September
- 2 Barcelona: 40 league goals in ten games, but a back line running short of bodies
- 3 Deportivo Alaves: a 5-3-2 that rarely concedes, and an attack that rarely scores
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves: a first league defeat for the leaders, and a visitor without a win since September 
The last time Alavés faced Barcelona, on 13 May 2026, they won 1-0 in Vitoria. That result stands out because it’s so rare: since 2011 Barcelona have won 17 of the 21 meetings between the clubs in all competitions, with two draws and two defeats. Saturday’s game at the Spotify Camp Nou, kick-off 20:00 UK time (21:00 in Spain), gives Alavés a chance to repeat it against a side coming off its worst week of the season.
Hansi Flick’s team lost 4-2 at Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on 20 October, which ended a run of 11 straight wins in all competitions, and then lost 2-1 at home to Real Madrid in the Clásico on Sunday. Kylian Mbappé scored both Madrid goals, the second three minutes from time after a cut-back from Eduardo Camavinga, and Raphinha’s equaliser on 61 minutes wasn’t enough.
It was Barcelona’s first league defeat after nine wins in a row, and it trimmed their lead at the top. They’re still first on 27 points, two clear of Atlético Madrid and three ahead of Real Madrid, with 40 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Alavés come in seventh on 12 points, level with Athletic Club, Celta Vigo and Villarreal. The table is kinder to them than their recent results: they haven’t won in La Liga since beating Osasuna 5-2 on 6 September, and they’ve taken two points from the last 18 available.
Barcelona have no midweek game and don’t play again until Aston Villa visit in the Champions League on 3 November, while Alavés travel to CD Anaitasuna in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday. Quique Sánchez Flores, who had knee surgery on 5 October and is still on crutches, has to pick a cup side three days before facing the league leaders.
Barcelona: 40 league goals in ten games, but a back line running short of bodies 
Scoring hasn’t been Barcelona’s issue this season. Forty goals in ten league games works out at four a match, and Raphinha leads the division with 13 of them. The summer signings have settled quickly around him: Gabriel Jesus, who arrived from Arsenal on 1 September, scored at Betis and against Getafe, and Anthony Gordon, signed from Newcastle at the end of May, also scored against Getafe before adding another at Galatasaray.
At the back, Barcelona conceded twice in the 5-2 win at Betis on 17 October, four times in Paris three days later and twice more against Madrid on Sunday. That’s eight goals against in three matches. Across the entire league season, the total stands at 11.
Injuries account for a good part of it. Xavi Espart went off after 29 minutes of the Clásico with an ankle syndesmosis injury and is expected to miss around seven weeks, while Eric García and Andreas Christensen are both carrying fitness problems with no return date. Dani Olmo, hurt against PSG, is out for about a month with an adductor injury.
Jules Koundé is the one piece of better news. He missed the trip to Paris and the Clásico with a sprained left ankle, and he has a strong chance of returning on Saturday. If he isn’t ready, the likely back four is João Cancelo, a free signing from Al Hilal in August, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín and Alejandro Balde.
Rodri, signed from Manchester City on 18 August, should anchor the midfield with Pedri and Fermín López, with Lamine Yamal, Raphinha and Gordon ahead of them. With a full week of rest and Atlético able to go top with a win at Levante earlier in the day, I’d expect Flick to start something very close to his strongest available XI.
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Deportivo Alaves: a 5-3-2 that rarely concedes, and an attack that rarely scores 
Alavés have conceded 11 league goals in ten games, exactly the same number as Barcelona. Sánchez Flores sets his side up in a 5-3-2, and the XI that started against Málaga on Friday is the most likely starting point: Sivera in goal, a back five of Ángel Pérez, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini and Rebbach, Aleñá, Blanco and Ibáñez in midfield, and Mariano Díaz alongside Lucas Boyé.
Goals have been much harder to come by. Alavés have 14 in ten league games and three in their last three, one in each. Boyé has five of the 14, including a penalty in first-half stoppage time during the 2-1 home defeat to Atlético on 10 October, and Mariano has three.
The draw with Málaga last Friday followed a familiar script. Alavés were at home to the bottom side, a team still without a league win, and fell behind to Adrián Niño’s goal on 44 minutes after a VAR review. Aitor Mañas only equalised on 89 minutes.
A week earlier at Balaídos, they trailed Celta 2-0 until Hugo Novoa pulled one back on 87 minutes. Late goals have rescued something or narrowed the gap twice in a row, but both came after long spells of chasing, and falling behind at the Camp Nou would mean chasing a side that scored five at Betis and four at Levante.
Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez have been listed among the absentees, though no details of an injury have emerged. Sánchez Flores will want to keep his first-choice back five fresh on Wednesday, because the cup tie at Anaitasuna comes three days before a trip where Alavés will spend long periods without the ball.
Probable lineup Barcelona: Joan García; Cancelo, Cubarsí, Gerard Martín, Balde; Pedri, Rodri, Fermín López; Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Gordon.
Probable lineup Deportivo Alaves: Sivera; Ángel Pérez, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini, Rebbach; Aleñá, Blanco, Ibáñez; Mariano Díaz, Boyé.
Free La Liga Prediction: Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals (1.62)
Barcelona’s ten league games have produced 51 goals, an average of just over five per match, and their last three in all competitions finished 5-2, 4-2 and 1-2. A home win is priced at 1.11, which offers nothing, so the better angle is the goal line, where over 3.5 goals is available at 1.62.
The case against is Alavés’ own profile: their ten league games have produced 25 goals in total, and a deep back five is built to keep the score down. Even so, Barcelona have scored at least three in four of their last six matches in all competitions, and their patched-up defence has conceded eight in the last three. Three for the home side and one for Boyé or Mariano would be enough.
The rest gap pushes in the same direction. Barcelona have had a full week to prepare after two defeats, while Alavés play a cup tie on Wednesday and have spent most of their recent games defending deep before scoring late. I’d back four or more goals at Camp Nou.
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