- 1 Levante vs Atletico Madrid: Simeone’s side can go top before Barcelona kick off
- 2 Levante: Brugué’s goals, an open defence and a three-game unbeaten run that ended in San Sebastián
- 3 Atletico Madrid: five straight league wins without Koke, and Baena carrying the goals
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Levante vs Atletico Madrid: Simeone’s side can go top before Barcelona kick off 
Atlético Madrid sit two points behind Barcelona with 25 from ten games, and the fixture list hands them a rare opening. They play at Levante at 13:00 UK time on Saturday (14:00 in Spain), seven hours before the leaders host Alavés, so a win at the Ciutat de València would put Diego Simeone’s side top of La Liga at least until Saturday night.
Atlético have won their last five league games and are unbeaten in six in all competitions, a run that includes a 2-0 home win over Manchester United in the Champions League and a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart, where Julián Álvarez equalised two minutes after half-time and Morten Hjulmand was later sent off.
The margins in the league have been thin, though. Three of those five wins came by a single goal: 2-1 at Alavés on 10 October through Cristian Romero’s header on 87 minutes, 1-0 at Espanyol through Álex Baena on 89 minutes, and 1-0 at home to Deportivo La Coruña on Saturday thanks to Álvarez early in the second half. Eight goals conceded in ten games is the reason those narrow wins keep arriving.
Levante are 14th with ten points, two above the relegation places, and their season has been loud at home. Their games at the Ciutat de València against Betis, Barcelona, Sevilla and Athletic Club produced 23 goals between them, from a 5-2 win over Betis to a 3-3 draw with Sevilla that was only settled by stoppage-time goals at both ends.
Atlético skip the first round of the Copa del Rey and have had seven days to prepare, while Levante travel to Tercera RFEF side CD Tarancón on Wednesday evening. Luís Castro has already said he’ll rotate players who are tired, which is sensible, but it still means a cup trip three days before the second-best side in the country arrives.
Levante: Brugué’s goals, an open defence and a three-game unbeaten run that ended in San Sebastián 
Levante’s best week of the season ended on Sunday. They’d drawn 3-3 with Sevilla on 12 October, drawn 1-1 at Deportivo four days later and then beaten Athletic Club 3-1 on 21 October in a rearranged game, with Brugué scoring twice in two minutes and Etta Eyong adding a third deep into stoppage time after Aymeric Laporte’s red card. Real Sociedad then won 2-1 in San Sebastián: Nacho Pérez equalised on 22 minutes, and Turrientes restored the home lead four minutes later.
Brugué is the player Atlético will have to watch. He has five league goals, more than anyone else in the squad, and Iván Romero is next with three. Between them they account for half of Levante’s 16 league goals.
At the other end, Levante have conceded 19 goals in ten league games. Castro has brought in experience this summer, with Aïssa Mandi arriving on a free from Lille and Ndukwe on loan from Liverpool, but the back four has conceded in each of the last four league games, and the sale of Carlos Espí to Real Madrid for €25 million on 30 July removed one of last season’s main goal threats.
Enzo Bardeli is out with a hamstring injury, and Adrián de la Fuente, known as Dela, is a doubt with a muscle issue. Brugué, Dela and Bardeli were reported to be left out of the squad for the cup tie at Tarancón, which suggests Castro wants his top scorer fresh for Saturday.
The recent head-to-head gives Levante something to hold on to. The last meeting at this ground, on 31 January 2026, finished 0-0, and Atlético needed an own goal and two Antoine Griezmann goals to win 3-1 in Madrid in November 2025. Griezmann has since left for Orlando City, and Manu Sánchez, Levante’s scorer that day, is still in the squad.
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Atletico Madrid: five straight league wins without Koke, and Baena carrying the goals 
Koke hasn’t played since 10 October because of a problem with his left hamstring, and Atlético haven’t lost since. The midfield has coped without their captain: Pablo Barrios scored inside the first minute against Manchester United, Ademola Lookman added the second on 79 minutes, and Kang-in Lee, signed from PSG, has trained fully after a thigh overload.
Johnny Cardoso is another absentee with a low-grade thigh injury and is expected to miss this trip. Cristian Romero, signed from Tottenham on 15 August for a fee reported at up to €40 million, is a doubt after a muscle strain that has kept him out of the last two games. Hjulmand’s red card came in the Champions League, so he’s available here.
Álex Baena has been the main source of goals with five in the league, including the late winner at Espanyol. Jonathan David, on loan from Juventus since deadline day, and Alejandro Grimaldo, signed from Bayer Leverkusen, have three each, and Grimaldo set up Álvarez’s winner against Deportivo.
The defensive record is the base of everything. Eight goals conceded in ten league games is the second-best record in La Liga behind Celta’s seven, and Atlético have kept clean sheets in their last two league outings. Jan Oblak behind a back line that could include Marc Pubill, David Hancko and Grimaldo has made a lot of these single-goal margins hold.
The one concern is what happens if Levante score first, because the 1-0 and 2-1 wins suggest a side that controls games without killing them. I don’t see that as a reason to oppose Atlético here, given Levante’s defensive numbers, but it does argue against laying a big handicap.
Probable lineup Levante: Ryan; Nacho Pérez, Mandi, Ndukwe, Manu Sánchez; Brugué, Olasagasti, Requena, Thiago Fernández; Iván Romero, Ratkov.
Probable lineup Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Hjulmand, Barrios, Baena, Kang-in Lee; Giuliano Simeone, Julián Álvarez.
Free La Liga Prediction: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid to win (1.62)
Atlético have won five league games in a row, conceded eight goals in ten league matches and come into this with a full week of rest. Levante have conceded 19 in ten, have let in at least one goal in each of their last four league games and play a cup tie on Wednesday night. The away win at 1.62 reflects that gap fairly, and I think it’s still the right side.
The honest argument for Levante is the 0-0 here in January and their goals at home, with 13 scored in the four home games against Betis, Barcelona, Sevilla and Athletic. That’s enough to rule out a clean-sheet bet on the visitors, but not enough to make the home side a threat to Atlético’s result.
A win would put Atlético top before Barcelona play, with Koke and Cardoso still out but no midweek fixture to manage around them. Atlético to win, at 1.62.
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