Austria vs Republic of Ireland – Free Football Prediction – Nov 14

Austria vs Republic of Ireland: promotion for the hosts if they win, and Parrott’s four goals in the way

Troy Parrott has scored four of the Republic of Ireland’s six goals in League B Group 3, and two of them came against Austria. He ran through on his own after 12 minutes in Dublin on 1 October and converted a penalty on the stroke of half-time, and for most of the second half it looked as though Ireland would beat Ralf Rangnick’s side for the first time since 2016.

They didn’t. Alexander Prass pulled one back on 71 minutes after a VAR check overturned an offside flag, and Michael Gregoritsch’s free-kick six minutes later went through Caoimhín Kelleher to make it 2-2. That point is the reason Austria go into Saturday’s rematch top of the group with eight, three clear of Kosovo and Ireland.

The game is at the Raiffeisen Arena in Linz on Saturday 14 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time. A home win would give Austria the group and promotion to League A with a game to spare, before they finish against Israel in Debrecen on Tuesday.

For Ireland, the arithmetic is about second place and the promotion play-off that comes with it. They’re level on five points with Kosovo, who are placed above them and beat them 1-0 through Vedat Muriqi’s 83rd-minute goal in Pristina on the opening night, and Heimir Hallgrímsson’s side host Kosovo at the Aviva Stadium on Tuesday.

Bookmakers price Austria at 1.57, the draw at 3.90 and Ireland at 5.60. Those numbers reflect Austria’s home form more than their injury list, which has grown longer every week since the squad was named on 2 November.

Austria: nine goals from nine different scorers, with half a team in the treatment room

Austria are unbeaten in the group, and the way they’ve scored explains a lot about how Rangnick has coped with the absences. Nine goals have come from nine different players, from Romano Schmid’s penalty against Israel to Christoph Lang’s 85th-minute header off the bench in Kosovo that rescued a 1-1.

The two home games were both won 3-1. Israel were beaten in Linz on 24 September, with Philipp Mwene and Sasa Kalajdzic scoring in stoppage time, and Kosovo lost in Vienna three days later as David Affengruber, Junior Adamu and Carney Chukwuemeka all found the net before Edon Zhegrova’s late penalty.

The list of players Rangnick can’t call on is long. Captain David Alaba has a calf injury, and Maximilian Wöber, Nikolas Veratschnig, Paul Wanner, Patrick Wimmer and Florian Grillitsch are all out. Chukwuemeka then withdrew with a thigh problem and Marco Grüll with a calf injury, so Yusuf Demir, back for the first time since November 2021, and Raul Florucz were called up.

Christoph Baumgartner, at least, is back from a thigh and tendon injury, Konrad Laimer and Nicolas Seiwald are in the squad, and Michael Svoboda of Brighton replaces Marco Friedl in defence. Seventeen-year-old Luca Weinhandl of Sturm Graz is uncapped and in line for a first appearance.

Austria haven’t lost at home since Belgium beat them in Vienna in 2023. The goalkeeping position is less settled: Alexander Schlager, Florian Wiegele and Christian Zawieschitzky have all played in this campaign, and LASK’s Lukas Jungwirth is also in the squad at his own club’s ground.

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Republic of Ireland: Collins is back, but an autumn of upheaval has cost them points

Ireland’s best night of the campaign came in Debrecen on 27 September, where they beat Israel 3-0 with three goals inside 25 minutes from Parrott, Adam Idah and Jack Moylan. It’s the only game they’ve won, and the other three have each left them a point or two short.

The return against Israel on 4 October was moved from the Aviva Stadium to Backa Topola in Serbia for security reasons and played behind closed doors. Parrott scored a penalty just before half-time, Dor Peretz equalised within two minutes of the restart, and Ireland dropped two points they had been counting on.

The Dublin game against Austria was interrupted twice, once when tennis balls were thrown onto the pitch and once by a pitch invader. Hallgrímsson’s side led 2-0 at half-time that night and still drew, which is the clearest measure of what they’ve let slip in this group.

Nathan Collins returns as captain after injury, Harvey Vale is back after completing his rehab and Mark Travers is recalled in goal, while Gavin Bazunu is injured. Moylan arrives in form after a first-half hat-trick for Cardiff against West Ham last week, and he scored in Debrecen alongside Parrott and Idah.

The record in Austria isn’t as bleak as the overall head-to-head suggests. Austria have won nine of the 17 meetings to Ireland’s three, but Ireland’s last win came in Vienna, 1-0 in November 2016 through James McClean, and the last four games between the sides have produced one win each and two draws.

Probable lineup Austria: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Republic of Ireland: Not announced at time of publication

Free Football Prediction: Austria vs Republic of Ireland

Our prediction: Austria to win (1.57)

I’d back Austria, despite the injury list. Rangnick’s side have shown in this campaign that the goals don’t depend on any one player, and with nine scorers from nine goals, losing Chukwuemeka and Grüll takes away two options rather than the whole attack.

Ireland’s case rests on Parrott, and he caused Austria real problems in Dublin. But Ireland have won one of four, they’ve conceded in three of those games, and they gave up a two-goal lead against this opponent in their own stadium.

Austria also have the stronger motive on the night. A win in Linz settles the group and promotion, while Ireland know their play-off place will probably be decided against Kosovo on Tuesday. At home, with Baumgartner back, I’d expect Austria to finish the job.

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