- 1 Norway vs Wales: World Cup quarter-finalists at the bottom, and a Wales side that beat them six weeks ago
- 2 Norway: Haaland’s two blank nights, Sørloth back, and a defence that keeps giving goals away
- 3 Wales: two goals in four games and seven straight matches conceding first
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Norway vs Wales
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Norway vs Wales: World Cup quarter-finalists at the bottom, and a Wales side that beat them six weeks ago 
Norway reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup in the summer and are bottom of League A Group 4 in November. They’ve lost three in a row, all of them 2-1, and they sit below Wales on head-to-head with three points each after four matches.
The head-to-head that puts them there was settled in Cardiff on 1 October. Oscar Bobb gave Norway the lead after 11 minutes, Daniel James equalised on 38, and Torbjørn Heggem was sent off straight after half-time for denying a goalscoring opportunity. Neco Williams scored the free-kick that followed two minutes later, and Norway never got back into it with ten men.
The rematch is at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo on Saturday 14 November, kick-off 17:00 UK time. The stakes are clearer than the standings suggest, because Portugal are already through on 12 points and Denmark are second on six. Third place in the group means a relegation play-off, and fourth means the drop to League B.
Both sides have one game left after this. Norway go to Denmark on Tuesday, while Wales host Portugal at Cardiff City Stadium the same night, so whoever loses in Oslo will probably need a result against a stronger opponent to avoid finishing last.
Bookmakers make Norway heavy favourites, at around 1.25 for the home win, with the draw between 6.00 and 6.75 and Wales between 9.00 and 11.00. The prices reflect the gap in the two squads more than anything in this group’s results so far.
Norway: Haaland’s two blank nights, Sørloth back, and a defence that keeps giving goals away 
The campaign started well for Ståle Solbakken. Norway beat Denmark 3-2 in Oslo on 24 September, with Bobb scoring on 14 minutes and Erling Haaland adding two, the second on 74. It was their first competitive win over Denmark and their first win of any kind over them in 28 years.
Since then the problems have been at the back rather than up front. Three days later Portugal won 2-1 at Ullevaal, and Gonçalo Ramos’ winner came straight after a poor pass from goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland. That defeat also ended a run of 14 home games without a loss in Oslo going back to March 2024.
Then came the red card in Cardiff and another 2-1 in Porto, where Kristoffer Ajer headed Norway in front from a Martin Ødegaard delivery before Portugal scored twice. That’s six goals conceded in three games, and each of those defeats turned on a single moment that Norway gave away.
Haaland has three goals and an assist in the group, and his 22 Nations League goals are the most anyone has scored in the competition. He didn’t score in either of the October defeats, though, and Norway have looked short of a second threat when he’s been marked closely.
That’s why Alexander Sørloth’s return matters. The Atlético Madrid striker missed September and October with a muscle injury picked up in early August, and he’s in the November squad alongside Haaland and Ødegaard, which gives Solbakken a second centre-forward for the first time this autumn.
no renewal
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Wales: two goals in four games and seven straight matches conceding first 
The win in Cardiff was the first Wales had ever recorded in League A, after one draw and seven defeats in their previous eight top-tier matches. It was also James’ 11th goal for his country, and it levelled the all-time record with Norway at four wins each and four draws from 12 meetings.
The rest of Craig Bellamy’s campaign has been hard going. Wales lost 1-0 in Lisbon, 2-0 in Copenhagen and 1-0 at home to Denmark, and the two goals they scored against Norway are the only two they’ve managed in four group games.
They’ve also conceded first in each of their last seven matches. Against Denmark in Cardiff on 4 October, the only goal came from a Rasmus Højlund penalty after Danny Ward fouled Gustav Isaksen, and against Portugal the winner was a long shot from João Félix that deflected in off Ben Davies.
Bellamy does have more options than in October. Harry Wilson, now at Leeds, is back after a quad injury, and Joe Rodon returns having not played since a hamstring problem in August. Karl Darlow, Rubin Colwill and Kai Andrews are recalled, and 20-year-old goalkeeper Joe Duncan, on loan at Southend from Bristol City, has his first call-up.
Jordan James is injured and misses the trip. Ben Cabango was booked for a second time in the campaign against Denmark, which rules him out of Oslo, so the back line could look different from the one that held on in Cardiff.
Probable lineup Norway: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Wales: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Norway vs Wales
Our prediction: Norway to win by two or more goals
At around 1.25, the straight home win is too short to be worth taking, so I’d go a step further and back Norway to win by at least two. The October defeat in Cardiff was decided by a red card at 1-1, and in Oslo, with eleven men, Norway have the far stronger attack against a side that has scored twice in four games.
Wales will defend deep and they’ve kept the scores tight against Portugal and Denmark, which is the honest argument against a margin. But they’ve conceded first in seven straight matches, and once Norway get the first goal, Wales haven’t shown the attacking threat to force them to sit back.
Haaland’s two goals against Denmark at Ullevaal, Sørloth’s return and a Wales defence without Cabango point the same way. I’d expect Norway to score early and add to it after the break.
in your pocket.
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