- 1 Arsenal vs Leeds United: the champions host an unbeaten Leeds side built to frustrate
- 2 Arsenal: three clean sheets in five, but a defence missing Saliba
- 3 Leeds United: unbeaten, built on draws, and dangerous only in short bursts
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Arsenal vs Leeds United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Arsenal vs Leeds United: the champions host an unbeaten Leeds side built to frustrate 
Nine straight Premier League wins, then a 3-0 defeat at Brighton. That is the context Arsenal carry into Saturday 10 October, when Leeds United visit the Emirates for matchday six, kick-off at 13:30 Paris time.
The table frames the stakes precisely. Arsenal sit second on 12 points with a record of four wins and one defeat, three points behind a Manchester City side that has won all five.
Leeds arrive fifth on 9 points and still unbeaten after two wins and three draws. Only three goals conceded in five matches places them among the tightest defences in the division.
The head-to-head numbers lean hard one way. Arsenal have won the last seven Premier League meetings, scoring 24 and conceding five, and Leeds have not beaten them in the league since a 3-2 win at Highbury in May 2003.
Last season was brutal for the Yorkshire side in this fixture. Arsenal won 5-0 at the Emirates in August 2025 and 4-0 at Elland Road in January 2026, without conceding once.
Yet the profile of this Leeds team is different. Daniel Farke’s side have drawn seven of their last ten away league matches, which tells us they rarely collapse on the road and rarely open the game up.
The scoring averages reinforce that view. Arsenal matches this season average 2.40 goals and Leeds matches 2.00, both modest figures for a fixture that produced nine goals across two games last season.
Arsenal’s home record supports the market’s view of the winner. The bookmakers price the hosts at 1.38, the draw at 5.30 and Leeds at 8.50, so the real analytical question here is less about who wins and more about how many goals this game produces.
Arsenal: three clean sheets in five, but a defence missing Saliba 
Mikel Arteta’s side are the reigning champions after collecting 85 points in 2025/26. They also reached last season’s Champions League final, lost on penalties to PSG.
The start to this campaign was efficient rather than spectacular. Arsenal beat Coventry 3-0, won 1-0 at Aston Villa, edged Chelsea 2-1 and won 2-0 at Sunderland, scoring eight league goals in total.
Defensive control is the foundation of this team. Arsenal kept 19 clean sheets last season, the most in the league, and their three shutouts this term are the joint-highest figure in the division.
The 3-0 loss at Brighton on 19 September broke that pattern sharply. Pascal Gross, Charalampos Kostoulas and Chema Andres all scored, and it remains the only blemish on the season.
The squad news is the main concern for Arteta. Saliba is out with a lower back problem, Christos Tzolis has a thigh injury picked up with Greece, while Declan Rice, Ben White, Kai Havertz and Mosquera all carry doubts.
Bukayo Saka remains the reference point in attack with three goals and nine shots on target. Riccardo Calafiori has added two assists from left-back, which shows how much Arsenal build from deep positions.
The Emirates has been reliable since the spring. Arsenal have won five consecutive home league matches since losing 2-1 to Bournemouth on 11 April 2026.
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Leeds United: unbeaten, built on draws, and dangerous only in short bursts 
Leeds finished 14th last season, eight points clear of the drop. This year the ambition has shifted towards the top half, and the first five rounds back that up.
The results are coherent. Leeds won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and 4-1 against Newcastle, and drew 1-1 with Brentford, 1-1 at Brighton and 0-0 with Crystal Palace before the break.
Nine points from five games equals their best Premier League start at this stage since 2002/03. Seven goals scored and three conceded give a goal difference of +4, the same as Arsenal.
The attacking output depends heavily on Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The striker has three goals and seven shots on target, and Anton Stach supplies most of the creative work in midfield.
Summer arrivals have settled quickly. Goalkeeper James Trafford, signed from Manchester City, and defender Muharemovic, signed from Sassuolo, both start in the expected 3-5-2.
The absences hurt in specific areas. Joe Rodon remains sidelined, academy forward Mateo Joseph is out with an ACL injury sustained in the summer, and Harry Wilson is a doubt after missing the Palace game and Wales duty.
The away pattern matters most for this prediction. Leeds matches have averaged 2.00 goals this season, and their road games tend to stay closed for long stretches.
Probable lineup Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Bruno Guimaraes; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Havertz (Rice and Havertz subject to fitness)
Probable lineup Leeds United: Trafford; Justin, Elvedi, Muharemovic; Bogle, Tanaka, Ampadu, Stach, Gudmundsson; Okafor, Calvert-Lewin
Free Football Prediction: Arsenal vs Leeds United
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.10)
Arsenal at 1.38 offers no value, so the angle is the total. Leeds have conceded three goals in five games and drawn seven of their last ten away fixtures, a profile built to slow a match down rather than trade chances.
Arsenal do not need volume to win this. Their 1-0 at Villa Park and 2-0 at Sunderland show a side comfortable protecting a narrow lead, and without Saliba and possibly Rice, Arteta has every reason to manage the game rather than chase a rout.
A 1-0 or 2-0 home win is the most coherent scoreline here. At 2.10, the Under 2.5 rewards that reading and still lands if Leeds steal a 1-1.
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