- 1 Albania vs San Marino: a reaction game after the Helsinki setback
- 2 Albania: a ten-man defeat in Finland and no goals in three summer friendlies
- 3 San Marino: no goals in Group C1 and no Nanni on Tuesday
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Albania vs San Marino
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Albania vs San Marino: a reaction game after the Helsinki setback 
Albania went to Helsinki on Saturday as leaders of League C Group 1 and came home in second place. A 2-1 defeat to Finland, played with ten men for more than an hour, handed top spot to the Finns.
The response comes on Tuesday 6 October in Tirana, with kick-off at 20:45 Paris time. The opponent is San Marino, the side Albania beat 3-0 away from home less than two weeks ago.
Finland now lead the group on seven points, one ahead of Albania. With two of their last three group games at home, Rolando Maran’s side still control a large part of their promotion bid.
San Marino arrive in a very different situation. Three games, three defeats, zero goals scored and 14 conceded, which works out at more than four goals shipped per match.
History offers no comfort to the visitors. Albania have won all five previous meetings between the two nations, and San Marino have never managed to score in any of them.
Finland’s lead also adds a layer of pressure to the evening. A comfortable Albania win would put them back on top, at least until the Finns play, and keep the race for promotion wide open heading into November.
The real question, then, is not who wins but how. Albania’s own attacking output has been patchy over the past few months, and that detail shapes the angle we take on this one.
Albania: a ten-man defeat in Finland and no goals in three summer friendlies 
The group started smoothly for Albania. A 2-0 home win over Belarus was followed by the 3-0 success in Serravalle, where Anis Mehmeti, Myrto Uzuni and Rey Manaj all scored.
Helsinki changed the mood. Manaj put Albania ahead after four minutes, but goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd minute and Leo Walta struck twice to turn the game around.
Berisha is suspended for Tuesday. Simon Simoni was called up on 4 October and could make his senior debut, while Strakosha was not part of this squad at all.
The squad is also thinner than usual. Defenders Balliu and Cake withdrew, midfielders Laci and Pajaziti did the same, and Armando Broja was not selected.
Up front, Manaj carries the load with 13 goals in 48 caps and has started all three group games. Uzuni and Mehmeti, both on the scoresheet in the first meeting, are available, and Luis Hasa has recovered from illness.
Maran is expected to keep changes to a minimum after the demanding trip to Finland. Berat Gjimshiti, Ardian Ismajli, Mario Mitaj and Kristjan Asllani should all keep their places in a side that has conceded only twice in three group games.
The worry lies in the bigger picture. After losing their World Cup playoff semi-final 2-1 to Poland in March, Albania lost three straight friendlies to Ukraine, Israel and Luxembourg without scoring once.
That run tells you this is not a side that routinely buries weaker opposition. Even in Serravalle, against a team without a point, they stopped at three goals.
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San Marino: no goals in Group C1 and no Nanni on Tuesday 
Roberto Cevoli’s side have had a brutal Nations League so far. They lost 7-0 to Finland, 3-0 to Albania and 4-0 in Belarus, and remain bottom without a point.
The Belarus defeat was tighter than the score suggests for long spells. San Marino created a handful of chances and only cracked early in the second half, before Belarus pulled away.
The wider record is grim. San Marino are now 17 internationals without a win, with one draw, six goals scored and 63 conceded across that stretch.
Tuesday adds a fresh problem. Nicola Nanni, their best active scorer with five goals in 58 caps, is suspended after picking up a second yellow card in the competition against Belarus.
Without him, the attacking burden falls on Giacopetti, who has three goals in 19 caps. Simone Giocondi was substituted against Belarus and his fitness remains unclear.
Goalkeeper Edoardo Colombo has started all three group games and kept the scores respectable for periods. He will need another busy, brave night to stop this becoming a rout.
Experienced heads remain available for Cevoli. Golinucci and Mularoni bring nearly 130 caps between them in midfield, while Cevoli, Fabbri, Rossi and Tosi give the back line some familiarity.
San Marino’s realistic aim is damage limitation, with a deep block and long balls towards Giacopetti. That approach did slow Albania down in the first meeting, which ended 3-0 rather than five or six.
Probable lineup Albania: Simoni; Ismajli, Gjimshiti, Mitaj; Hysaj, Ramadani, Asllani, Pilo; Muci, Manaj, Hoxha
Probable lineup San Marino: Colombo; Benvenuti, Cevoli, Rossi, Giocondi; Mularoni, L. Capicchioni, Lazzari, Pancotti; Giacopetti, G. Capicchioni
Free Football Prediction: Albania vs San Marino
Our prediction: Albania to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 (odds 2.90)
Albania’s straight win is priced at 1.01, so there is nothing to gain there. The interesting market is the shape of the scoreline, and the evidence points to a controlled win without a cricket score.
San Marino have not scored in Group C1 and travel without Nanni, so a clean sheet for the hosts looks very likely. At the other end, Albania scored three in the first meeting and went three friendlies without a goal before this campaign, which argues against a heavy margin.
A 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 Albania win covers the most realistic outcomes at 2.90. It mirrors the five previous meetings, all won without conceding, and fits a team that tends to manage games rather than chase them.
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