- 1 Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: seven conceded in two games, and the Dutch Cup holders arrive in Yerevan
- 2 Ararat-Armenia: Armenian champions who got past Craiova, then let in seven in the league phase
- 3 AZ Alkmaar: 2.22 goals per game, but beaten without scoring at Sunderland and Feyenoord
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: seven conceded in two games, and the Dutch Cup holders arrive in Yerevan 
Sparta Prague won 4-1 in Yerevan on the opening night of the Europa League league phase, and Jagiellonia beat Ararat-Armenia 3-1 in Białystok on 15 October. Seven goals conceded in two games leaves the Armenian champions with a worse defensive record than every side in the competition except Lech Poznań.
They’re 33rd of 36 with no points and a goal difference of minus five. AZ Alkmaar, Thursday’s visitors, sit 20th on three points after beating Hapoel Be’er Sheva 2-1 at home on the same night Ararat lost in Poland.
AZ’s European start was uneven: they lost 1-0 at Sunderland on 16 September, and in the Eredivisie they were beaten 2-0 at Feyenoord on 10 October, so the Hapoel win was their first European points of the season.
Kick-off at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium is 17:45 UK time, and it’s AZ’s first visit to Yerevan. The market has the visitors as clear favourites, with Ararat available at around 5.98 and the draw at 4.56.
We think the price on an AZ win by two or more is the one worth taking. Ararat have conceded at least three times in each league-phase game, and AZ average 2.22 goals per match across all competitions this season. Ararat have scored in both league-phase games as well, which is why we prefer the handicap to any clean-sheet market.
Ararat-Armenia: Armenian champions who got past Craiova, then let in seven in the league phase 
Ararat won the Armenian title back last season. This term they’re chasing Noah, who’ve won every league match so far, and their most recent domestic outing was a 4-0 away win on 3 October.
The European summer went well for a long time. They beat Riga and Shamrock Rovers in Champions League qualifying before a defeat by Celje in August moved them into the Europa League route, where a 1-1 draw at Universitatea Craiova on 20 August and a 1-0 home win a week later took them through.
The league phase has been a different level of opponent. Sparta scored four at the Republican Stadium, and Jagiellonia added three in Białystok, so the defence that kept the Craiova tie tight has let in 3.5 goals per game since. In Białystok, Zidane Banjaqui put them ahead after 11 minutes, Kamil Jóźwiak equalised two minutes later, and Rodrigo Conceição and Ousmane Sow scored either side of half-time. Ararat had 58% of the ball and still lost by two.
Over the whole season Ararat average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of their matches and an average of 2.8 goals in total. Those numbers lean heavily on domestic fixtures, and they’ve won one of their last five European games.
Banjaqui is a doubt after he was forced off injured after 17 minutes in Poland. The expected 4-3-3 has Joao Bravim in goal and Bruno Wilson, booked in Białystok, in the centre of defence, with Sandro Lima through the middle and Serobyan on one flank. Ararat have scored once in each league-phase game, so their attack hasn’t been the issue.
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AZ Alkmaar: 2.22 goals per game, but beaten without scoring at Sunderland and Feyenoord 
AZ finished seventh in the Eredivisie last season but won the Dutch Cup, and they beat PSV in the Super Cup over the summer, their second trophy in the space of a few months. The cup win is the reason they’re in this competition at all.
The worry for anyone backing them is away form. They lost 1-0 at Sunderland and 2-0 at Feyenoord and didn’t score in either, which is the only real counterweight to their scoring rate elsewhere.
At home they’ve been more reliable, with a 1-0 win over Telstar on 20 September and the 2-1 against Hapoel Be’er Sheva. Peer Koopmeiners has one of their two league-phase goals. On Sunday they came from Friesland with a point after a 2-2 draw at Cambuur, so the away scoring drought in the Eredivisie ended there.
Across all competitions AZ average 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Their matches average 3.33 goals in total, and both teams have scored in 56% of them.
The expected XI has de Busser in goal, Clasie and Koopmeiners in front of the back four, and Smit behind Meerdink, with Dal and Aufkir wide.
Probable lineup Ararat-Armenia: Joao Bravim; Grigoryan, Malis, Bruno Wilson, Bueno; Dias, Oliveira, Muradyan; Banjaqui (doubtful), Sandro Lima, Serobyan
Probable lineup AZ Alkmaar: de Busser; Chavez, Schouten, Goes, Dijkstra; Koopmeiners, Clasie; Dal, Smit, Aufkir; Meerdink
Free Europa League Prediction: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Our prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win by two or more goals, -1 handicap (1.78)
Ararat have conceded four at home to Sparta and three away to Jagiellonia, and they’ve won one of their last five European games. AZ average 2.22 goals a game and play in matches that produce 3.33 goals on average.
The argument against is AZ’s away record: no goals at Sunderland or Feyenoord, and two conceded at Cambuur on Sunday. Sunderland and Feyenoord are established top-flight sides, though, while Ararat have conceded 3.5 goals per game in the league phase.
The outright AZ win is priced too short to interest us, so we’re taking the -1 handicap at 1.78. A 2-0 or 3-1 covers it, and Ararat’s league-phase scores so far, 1-4 and 1-3, both would have done.
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