- 1 Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: 26 of 39 conceded after half-time, and Streppel’s first home game
- 2 Willem II: 20 conceded in five league games and no win since the Helmond cup tie
- 3 PEC Zwolle: two wins in three, but a 20.8% big-chance rate
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: 26 of 39 conceded after half-time, and Streppel’s first home game 
Thirty-nine goals conceded in 11 Eredivisie games, and 26 of them after half-time. That’s Willem II’s season so far, and I can’t think of a worse number for a new manager to walk into at the Koning Willem II Stadion on Friday 6 November, kick-off 19:00 UK time.
Jurgen Streppel took over on 28 October, four days after a 6-1 home defeat to Cambuur and eight days after John Stegeman’s dismissal. His first league game in charge ended 7-0 at PSV on 31 October.
Willem II are 18th with two points, two draws and nine defeats, and sit 11 points adrift of safety. They’re still waiting for their first league win. The only win of the campaign came in the KNVB Beker, 4-3 at Helmond Sport.
PEC Zwolle are 14th on 11 points with three wins, two draws and six defeats, so they aren’t exactly secure either. Dennis van der Ree is in temporary charge after Henry van den Vegt’s departure, and the club is still looking for a permanent head coach.
Results have picked up in spite of that. Zwolle have won two of their last three league games, 4-1 over Go Ahead Eagles and 1-0 over ADO Den Haag, either side of a 1-1 draw at Utrecht.
The prices are 2.90 Willem II, 3.60 the draw and 2.30 Zwolle, and the away side’s double chance is 1.40. I think the market has given the hosts too much credit for the new manager.
Willem II: 20 conceded in five league games and no win since the Helmond cup tie 
The last six league results read 5-1 at Ajax, 1-0 at home to Fortuna Sittard, 3-1 at Utrecht, 3-2 at Sparta Rotterdam, 6-1 at home to Cambuur and 7-0 at PSV. That’s six straight defeats, with five goals scored and 25 conceded across them.
Willem II’s home form is no shelter. Their last five league games in Tilburg brought one draw, four defeats, four goals scored and 16 conceded. Fortuna’s 1-0 win there on 19 September is the narrowest of those defeats.
The head-to-head at this ground doesn’t help either. Willem II have won one of their last five home games against Zwolle, losing three and drawing the other.
Streppel gets one selection boost. Jaden Slory has served his one-match ban from the PSV game and is available. Justin Hoogma (knee) and Amine Lackhar (groin) stay out, and Givaro Rahajaan hasn’t made a matchday squad since early September.
D. Haen is the top scorer with three league goals, Uriel van Aalst has two goals and two assists, and N. Tjoe-A-On has two assists. The side has 10 goals in 11 games, which is why the goals conceded matter so much: any error tends to finish the game.
The split between first and second half is the clearest pattern. Thirteen conceded before the break and 26 after it points to a team that falls apart once it goes behind, and Zwolle have scored around a third of their goals in the first 45 minutes.
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PEC Zwolle: two wins in three, but a 20.8% big-chance rate 
Zwolle won one of their first eight league games, and that stretch included a 7-0 home defeat to Feyenoord and a 3-0 loss at Groningen. They’ve taken seven points from the last nine available since Go Ahead Eagles came to town on 18 October.
Four goals in that win remain the outlier. Zwolle have scored 12 in 11 league games, and their big-chance conversion of 20.8% is the lowest in the Eredivisie, which is a serious flaw for a team trying to win away from home.
Away form has been steady without being good. The last five league trips produced one win, two draws and two defeats, with six goals scored and nine conceded, and the 1-1 at Utrecht on 24 October was the most encouraging of them.
Younes Namli scored in the most recent meeting with Willem II and is expected to start. K. Kostons leads the scoring with four league goals, and D. Mbayo has one goal and four assists in 11 appearances.
Sherel Floranus misses a fourth straight game and Filip Krastev is out with an Achilles injury. The probable side has Viergever at centre-back and Sommer, Thomas and Van der Wal in midfield.
The warning comes from the cup. Zwolle lost 2-1 at home to TOP Oss, and they’ve conceded 23 league goals of their own, so they’ve shown they can lose to anybody on a bad night.
Probable lineup Willem II: Delanghe; Ter Avest, Stam, Dekker, Tjoe a On; Twigt, Zarrouk; Slory, Van Aalst, Van Crooy; Haen
Probable lineup PEC Zwolle: Schendelaar; Van de Haar, Viergever, Graves, Aertssen; Sommer, Thomas, Van der Wal; Mbayo, Van Hooijdonk, Namli
Free Football Prediction: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
Our prediction: PEC Zwolle to win @ 2.30
Willem II have lost six straight league games by an aggregate of 25-5, including two home defeats, and they’ve conceded 26 goals after half-time this season. Zwolle have taken seven points from three games and beaten ADO without conceding on Sunday.
A new manager in his first home game can produce a reaction, and Zwolle’s finishing could easily waste the chances they create. I’d want a lot more than one week under Streppel before trusting this back four, though, after seven at PSV.
I’d take Zwolle at 2.30. The 1.40 on the double chance is too short, and at 2.30 the outright win pays properly for a team that’s won two of three against one that hasn’t won in the league at all.
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