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Angers vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction

Angers vs Nice – Free Ligue 1 Prediction

Angers vs Nice: one home goal against this opponent in two visits, and one win in five Ligue 1

Nice won 2-0 at the Stade Raymond-Kopa on 14 March and 4-1 there in September 2024. Angers have scored once in those two home games, and they get a third go on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 16:15 UK time.

The table has moved apart since the summer. Angers are 15th with eight points from nine games, nine goals scored and 17 conceded. Nice are eighth on 14, with 13 scored and 12 let in.

Recent results widen that gap. Olivier Pantaloni’s side have won four of their last five league games, the latest a 5-2 win over a Rennes team that had arrived second in the division. Angers have one win from their last five and haven’t scored in their last two.

The prices read 3.25 Angers, 3.45 the draw and 1.92 Nice. That’s a fair amount of respect for a visiting side in this league, and I’d normally be wary of it.

Nice’s away numbers are the reason for that caution. Their last five league games on the road brought one win, one draw, three defeats, three goals scored and seven conceded. They’ve let in at least one goal in four of those five.

Geoffrey Kubler referees, and he has averaged 4.3 cards a game across his four matches on our figures. Angers took the December meeting 1-0 at the Allianz Riviera, the one result that stands out from Nice’s three wins in the last six meetings.

Angers: 12 goals conceded in five games and a thin squad for Gilli Angers

Stéphane Gilli, who replaced Alexandre Dujeux in the summer, started well. A 3-1 win at Auxerre on 29 August, a 0-0 at Le Havre on 12 September and a 2-0 home win over Troyes on 19 September gave Angers seven points from five games.

They’ve taken one point from four since. Brest beat them 5-1 on 10 October, Marseille won 5-2 at the Raymond-Kopa eight days later, and after a 0-0 with Lorient on 25 October they lost 2-0 at Lyon on 1 November.

That’s 12 conceded in the last five, against five scored. Jordan Lefort’s return from suspension and Ousmane Camara’s recovery from a thigh problem were due to restore the first-choice centre-back pairing before the Lorient game, and that match ended in a clean sheet.

The injury list is the bigger worry. Jim Allevinah, Haris Belkebla, Yassine Belkhdim, Louis Mouton and Amine El Ouazzani are all listed with problems this week. El Ouazzani scored the second goal against Marseille, his second of the season, and Belkhdim and Belkebla were two of the options in central midfield.

Home form won’t lift anybody. Angers’ last five league games at the Raymond-Kopa read one win, one draw and three defeats, with five goals scored and nine conceded. They did score in three of those five, which is the one number that gives them a route into this.

Nine goals in nine league games leaves very little margin, and five of those came in the two games against Auxerre and Marseille.

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Nice: 12 goals in five games, only three of them from their last five on the road Nice

Five goals against Rennes on 30 October took Nice’s league total from eight to 13 in one evening. It came against Franck Haise, the man they replaced midway through last season, and his side had scored 18 in eight games before that night.

The win before it was more relevant to this trip. At Brest on 23 October, Ludovic Ajorque put the hosts ahead after 15 minutes, Elye Wahi equalised on 61, Sofiane Diop won it late and Yehvann Diouf saved Kenny Lala’s stoppage-time penalty. That 2-1 is the only away win in their last five.

Pantaloni arrived from Lorient on 17 June and has rebuilt the attack quickly. Wahi has been on loan from Eintracht Frankfurt since 24 August and went into the Rennes game with three league goals. Mohamed Amoura came in on loan from Wolfsburg and Gauthier Hein from Metz, and the pair played behind Wahi in a 3-4-2-1 at Lyon.

The absences are real. Laurent Abergel and Antoine Mendy both have cruciate ligament injuries, Morgan Sanson and Jonathan Clauss have thigh problems, Axel Witsel is out with a muscle injury and Diop has been ill. Clauss scored the winner against Strasbourg on 11 October, and Diop’s goal decided the Brest game.

Three of the league games before Rennes were settled by a single goal, including the 2-1 defeat at Lyon on 18 October. Nice can win ugly and they’ve done so, and that’s a useful trait against a home side short on confidence.

Probable lineup Angers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Nice: Not announced at time of publication

Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Angers vs Nice

Our prediction: Nice to win @ 1.92

Angers have conceded 12 in five, scored none in two and are missing their main striker option and two central midfielders. Nice have scored 12 in five, with goals from Wahi, Diop and Clauss spread across the run, and they beat Rennes by three with players missing.

I’m not blind to the away record: one win from five and three goals scored is thin, and Angers won this fixture in December. Against that, the two most recent visits here finished 2-0 and 4-1 to Nice, and Angers have conceded 12 in their last five.

I’d back Nice at 1.92 to win the game outright. Eight points from nine games and two straight blanks don’t justify the 3.25 on the hosts.

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  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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