- 1 West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City: The Hawthorns hasn’t seen a home defeat in 11 games
- 2 West Brom: five league games in a row with two goals or fewer
- 3 Birmingham City: five draws from eight and Liam Millar on four goal contributions in four games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City: The Hawthorns hasn’t seen a home defeat in 11 games 
Eleven home games unbeaten. Four wins, seven draws. West Brom haven’t lost at The Hawthorns in that run, and Birmingham City are next through the door on Saturday lunchtime, kick-off 13:30 Paris time.
It’s a second West Midlands derby in three weeks for the Baggies. The first one went badly. On 20 September at Molineux, sloppy passing at the back let Fer Lopez in for the only goal, and James Morrison’s side failed to score in a league game for the first time this season.
That defeat still stings. But it doesn’t change the bigger picture: West Brom are fifth after eight games, a long way from last season’s flirtation with the bottom three.
Birmingham arrive as the Championship’s draw specialists. Chris Davies’s side have shared the points in five of their eight league matches, including four straight home draws, the latest a 2-2 with Middlesbrough where James Beadle fumbled in a late equaliser. They’re 10th.
Here’s the twist. Both of Blues’ league wins have come away from home: 2-1 at Wrexham and 2-1 at Derby.
Both meetings between these clubs last season ended level. Nobody would be shocked if this one went the same way.
West Brom: five league games in a row with two goals or fewer 
West Brom don’t do chaos. Their last five league matches finished 1-1 with Charlton, 1-0 against Watford, 1-0 at Derby, 1-1 with QPR and 0-1 at Wolves. Not one of them produced more than two goals.
That’s a side that knows what it’s about. Tight, compact, hard to break down, and rarely ruthless at the other end.
The home record is the foundation. West Brom are one of eight Championship sides yet to lose at home this season, and the unbeaten streak at The Hawthorns now stretches to 11 games. Seven of those were draws, though. Unbeaten isn’t the same as dominant.
The team news is a worry on the right. Noah Galves has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, leaving summer signing Brayann Pereira as the only recognised right-back. Morrison doesn’t seem keen to throw the 23-year-old straight in, so Callum Styles could keep filling in there.
The one time this side came apart was at the Riverside: a 3-1 defeat to Middlesbrough. Outside that afternoon, goals against West Brom have been hard to come by.
Can they score enough to win it? That’s the real question, and the Wolves game didn’t answer it.
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Birmingham City: five draws from eight and Liam Millar on four goal contributions in four games 
Birmingham’s season so far is all about the draw. Five from eight in the league. Four in a row at St Andrew’s. After a League One title campaign built on control in 2024-25, Blues have looked messier in the Championship, and their scorelines show it: 2-2 with Wolves, 2-2 with Middlesbrough, 1-1 with Southampton.
Liam Millar is the man making things happen. The Hull City loanee has four goal contributions in four games, including two assists in the 2-1 win at Pride Park. The Canada international has finally found some consistency.
The break has done Davies a lot of good. Demarai Gray, Max Bird and former Albion man Taylor Gardner-Hickman are all back in contention. Jhon Solis returns after making his senior Colombia debut.
Not everyone came back smiling. Paik Seung-Ho picked up a knock on international duty and could miss this game along with the upcoming trips to Preston and QPR.
The worry for Blues is at the back. They’ve conceded in each of their last six league games, nine goals in total. That’s a defence that doesn’t hold.
Yet away from home, they’ve been the more efficient version of themselves. Two wins on the road, both by a single goal.
Probable lineup West Bromwich Albion: O’Leary; Styles, Phillips, Campbell, Townsend; Nzingoula, Molumby, Diakite, Price; Heggebo, Morgan
Probable lineup Birmingham City: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Iwata, Solis, Vicente, Stansfield, Millar; Priske
Free Football Prediction: West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.00)
The game will be played on West Brom’s terms, and West Brom’s terms mean low scores. Five straight league matches with two goals or fewer, an 11-game unbeaten home run built mostly on draws, and an attack that blanked in the last derby. The Hawthorns hasn’t been the place for open football this season.
Birmingham’s numbers point the other way, and we won’t pretend otherwise: five of their last six league games have had three goals or more. But West Brom have conceded once or fewer in every league match since the trip to Middlesbrough, and they haven’t scored more than once in any of those five games either. The home side’s structure is the more reliable trend.
Both meetings last season ended in draws, and this one has a similar feel. Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 offers a fair price for a tight, cagey derby.
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