- 1 LOU Rugby vs Stade Rochelais: the Top 14’s most dangerous attack faces a side that can’t string results together
- 2 LOU Rugby: 91 points in two home games and 44 line breaks already
- 3 Stade Rochelais: two wins in their first two, one in their last three
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: LOU Rugby vs Stade Rochelais
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
LOU Rugby vs Stade Rochelais: the Top 14’s most dangerous attack faces a side that can’t string results together 
Thirty-five points and five tries per game. That’s what LOU Rugby have averaged through five rounds of Top 14, and it’s the number that frames Saturday’s meeting with Stade Rochelais at the Matmut Stadium Gerland, kick-off 16:35 Paris time.
La Rochelle average 23 points and three tries. Twelve points a game is a big gap. It shows up everywhere you look.
The table is tight, mind. Lyon sit sixth, La Rochelle seventh, one point behind. Both sides have won three and lost two. On paper, it’s a coin flip between neighbours in the standings. In reality, the way they’ve earned those points couldn’t be more different.
Lyon blew the doors off early: 40-36 against Clermont, 48-31 at Racing 92, 51-25 against Pau. Then the road caught up with them, with a 31-10 loss at Stade Francais and a 51-28 hammering at Bordeaux-Begles last weekend. Two defeats, both away.
At Gerland, though, Karim Ghezal’s side haven’t missed a beat. Two home games, two wins, 91 points scored. That’s the bit that matters on Saturday.
La Rochelle bounced back with a 38-13 win over Clermont last time out, but that came at home. Their last trip ended in a 39-17 beating at Pau. Can they bring the Clermont edge on the road? We’re not convinced.
LOU Rugby: 91 points in two home games and 44 line breaks already 
Forty-four line breaks in five matches. La Rochelle have managed 19. If you want one stat that explains Lyon’s season, there it is: when this side gets the ball moving, defences crack.
The trouble has come when Lyon have gone travelling. The 31-10 defeat in Paris and the 51-28 thumping in Bordeaux were ugly. Eighty-two points conceded across the two. That’s a side that loses its shape when the opposition’s crowd gets going.
Back home? Different animal. Clermont were beaten 40-36 in a shootout on opening night, and Pau were taken apart 51-25 on 19 September. Gerland has been a happy place.
It wasn’t always this way. Last season Lyon finished with only the 11th-best home record in the league: eight wins, a draw and four defeats. This season’s start suggests something has shifted.
The defence isn’t a fortress. Lyon’s tackle success sits at 51 per cent in the official season data, which is hardly elite. But when you’re putting up 35 points a game, you don’t need to win every collision.
Two straight defeats have stung. Expect a response.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Stade Rochelais: two wins in their first two, one in their last three 
The season opened with a statement. La Rochelle beat four-time defending champions Stade Toulousain 30-27 at Marcel-Deflandre, then squeezed out a 21-20 win at Toulon a week later. Two from two.
Then it went sideways. A 20-10 home defeat to Racing 92, followed by a 39-17 beating at Pau. Those two results take some explaining for a squad of this quality.
The 38-13 win over Clermont last weekend steadied things. It came at home, against a Clermont side that’s been poor on its travels. Hardly proof that the wobble is over.
To be fair, they finished last season with the fourth-best away record in the Top 14, five wins from 13 trips. That’s respectable. It’s also eight defeats. They squeezed into the play-offs and were then knocked out in the quarter-final by Stade Francais, which tells you everything you need to know about where they’ve been sitting lately.
Discipline is a worry too. La Rochelle have already picked up four yellow cards and a red this season. Against an attack that punishes every gap, that’s a dangerous habit.
Three tries a game won’t be enough at Gerland. Not on current evidence.
Probable lineup LOU Rugby: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Stade Rochelais: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: LOU Rugby vs Stade Rochelais
Our prediction: LOU Rugby to win by more than 7.5 points (handicap -7.5)
Lyon are heavy favourites with the bookmakers, priced around 1.29 for the straight win, which is too short to back on its own. The handicap is where the value sits. At home this season, Lyon have won by four and by 26, and they average 12 more points per game than La Rochelle.
The line-break gap is enormous: 44 for Lyon against 19 for La Rochelle. That’s not a style difference. That’s a side creating more than twice as many clear chances, and at Gerland those chances have been turning into tries.
La Rochelle were well beaten on their last trip, 39-17 at Pau, and their card count points the same way. Lyon win, and they win with something to spare.
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