- 1 Watford vs Lincoln City: a lead thrown away at Norwich and 23 goals conceded by the visitors
- 2 Watford: 1.50 points a game at Vicarage Road, none of them away
- 3 Lincoln City: 1.40 points a game away from home and a defence that keeps leaking
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Watford vs Lincoln City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Watford vs Lincoln City: a lead thrown away at Norwich and 23 goals conceded by the visitors 
Watford led Norwich City 2-0 at half-time on Saturday and lost 3-2. Myron Boadu scored both of their goals at Carrow Road, and the defeat was their second in a row in the league after a 1-0 loss at Wolverhampton Wanderers.
It leaves Alessio Dionisi’s side 21st in the Championship, two points above the relegation zone, ahead of Tuesday’s home game against Lincoln City. Kick-off at Vicarage Road is at 19:45 UK time on 3 November.
Lincoln are 16th with 15 points, but their recent run hasn’t been much better than Watford’s. They’ve taken four points from their last six league games, a stretch that includes a 6-0 home defeat by West Ham United and a 3-0 loss at Sheffield United.
In the middle of that run they beat Burnley 4-1 at the LNER Stadium, which shows what co-head coach Chris Cohen’s side can do when a game opens up. They then lost 3-1 at home to Birmingham City on Saturday, with Tom Bayliss scoring as a substitute.
Burnley’s result at Loftus Road matters to Watford as well, because the Clarets can climb out of the bottom three on Tuesday if they win at QPR and Watford lose, so Dionisi’s side start the night knowing a defeat could drop them closer to trouble.
With both sides changing shape week to week, this season’s numbers have to do most of the work here. Bookmakers have Watford at around 2.38, Lincoln at 2.80 and the draw at 3.35, a narrow gap that reflects two sides who’ve both struggled.
Watford: 1.50 points a game at Vicarage Road, none of them away 
Watford’s last ten matches in all competitions brought two wins and eight defeats, and every one of their six away games in that sample was lost. At Vicarage Road they’ve collected 1.50 points per game over the same period, which is the only part of their season that resembles a mid-table side.
The home form has swung hard too: a 2-0 win over Charlton Athletic sits alongside the 4-0 defeat by Burnley, and across their recent home games Watford have averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded.
Over 13 league matches the totals read three wins, two draws and eight defeats, with 12 goals scored and 23 conceded. A 5-1 defeat at Cardiff City and a 1-0 loss at Bristol City were part of the run that dragged them towards the bottom four.
Boadu’s brace at Norwich was the encouraging part of Saturday. He’s expected to lead the line again with Iker Bravo alongside him, and Kyprianou behind them, in a 5-3-2 with Ravaglia in goal behind Diatta, Mlacic, Pollock, Keben and Zemura.
The second half at Carrow Road is the worry Dionisi has to deal with in three days. Watford were two goals up at the break, conceded three after it and went home with nothing, in a season where they’ve already conceded 23 times.
Their underlying home numbers are better than the results. Watford have created 1.63 expected goals per home game across their last ten, and they’ve failed to score in only a quarter of those matches at Vicarage Road.
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Lincoln City: 1.40 points a game away from home and a defence that keeps leaking 
Lincoln’s results have swung from one extreme to the other. In their last six league games they’ve lost 6-0 at home to West Ham and 3-0 at Sheffield United, drawn 2-2 at Millwall, beaten Burnley 4-1, lost 1-2 to Swansea City and gone down 3-1 to Birmingham.
They’ve conceded 23 league goals, one of the highest totals in the Championship. In the home games among their last ten matches they conceded 2.60 a game, and away from the LNER Stadium that figure drops to 1.80, with a clean sheet in 40% of those away matches.
That away record is the strongest argument for Lincoln on Tuesday. They’ve collected 1.40 points per game on the road in the same sample, better than their home return of 0.80 and far better than Watford’s away figure of zero.
Mikkel Ladefoged has had three goal contributions in his last two games and is expected to play as the lone striker. Hackett, House and Jefferies are likely behind him, with Konak and Bayliss in front of a defence of Coubis, Elerewe, Bradley and Reach.
Lincoln’s away points have mostly come from tight games rather than open ones. Their expected goals on the road is 0.96 per match, they’ve failed to score in 40% of their recent away fixtures, and their away matches have averaged 2.60 goals in total.
Probable lineup Watford: Ravaglia; Diatta, Mlacic, Pollock, Keben, Zemura; Kayembe, Payero; Kyprianou; Bravo, Boadu
Probable lineup Lincoln City: Wickens; Coubis; Elerewe, Bradley, Reach; Konak, Bayliss; Hackett, House, Jefferies; Ladefoged
Free Football Prediction: Watford vs Lincoln City
Our prediction: Watford to win (2.38)
Watford’s home attacking numbers carry this pick. They’ve produced 1.63 expected goals per home game over their last ten, against Lincoln’s 0.96 away, and Boadu arrives off two goals at Norwich.
Lincoln’s away record is better than Watford’s, and the 1.40 points per game they’ve collected on the road is the reason this price isn’t shorter. I still think a defence that has conceded 23 times in 13 league games, six of them at home to West Ham, will give Boadu and Bravo chances.
The second half at Norwich is a warning about how Watford manage leads. At home against the 16th-placed side, with the relegation zone two points behind them, I’d back them to hold on this time, and Watford to win at 2.38 is the pick.
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