- 1 Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes: Luis Pinto faces the club that sacked him in March
- 2 Gil Vicente: the third-best defence in the league, but three home games without a win
- 3 Vitoria Guimaraes: five goals against Maritimo, no points from four away games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes: Luis Pinto faces the club that sacked him in March 
Luis Pinto won the Taça da Liga with Vitória de Guimarães in January and was dismissed in March. On Monday night he takes Gil Vicente into the Minho derby against his former club at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, kick-off 20:15 UK time on 2 November.
Pinto’s side are seventh in the Primeira Liga with 14 points from nine games, three points off the European places. Their defence explains most of that: seven goals conceded, with only Porto and Santa Clara letting in fewer.
Vitória are 13th with 8 points and two league wins from nine matches. Tiago Margarido’s side have lost all four of their league games away from home, and they’re one of only two teams in the division still without an away point.
They come into the derby off a 5-0 home win over Marítimo on 23 October, in which Arnel Jakupović scored twice for his first goals since joining from Osijek in the summer. That followed a 1-0 Taça de Portugal win at ACDR Lamelas on 17 October, so Vitória have won their last two without conceding.
The recent head-to-head belongs to Vitória, who are unbeaten in five against Gil, with four wins, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in each of the last four meetings, including a 1-0 win in Barcelos in April 2026 and a 0-0 draw in Guimarães in December 2025.
The market can barely split them: Gil Vicente are priced between 2.25 and 2.75 depending on the bookmaker, Vitória between 2.38 and 2.78, and the draw sits around 3.00. Under 2.5 goals is available at around 1.64.
Gil Vicente: the third-best defence in the league, but three home games without a win 
Gil Vicente won their first two home league games of the season and haven’t won in Barcelos since. The three matches that followed brought a 1-0 defeat to Académico de Viseu, a 1-1 draw with Marítimo on 19 September and a 1-0 defeat to Porto on 24 October.
Their away results have kept them in the top half. Pinto’s side won 1-0 at Moreirense on 9 October and 2-1 at Braga on 19 October, and those two wins account for six of their 14 points.
Eight goals in nine games is the other side of that defensive record. Gil’s league matches have produced 15 goals in total, and three of their last four league games were settled by a single goal.
The squad took a hit in midweek, when Gil lost 4-1 at Benfica in the Taça da Liga quarter-final, and Antonio Espigares was sent off late on, which rules him out on Monday. Arthur Tchaptchet is expected to miss out for fitness reasons, and Mohamed Bamba is still recovering from the serious knee injury he suffered in January.
Marvin Elimbi returns after a one-match suspension, though his fitness was still being checked late in the week. The probable side has Lucão in goal and Kaba up front, with Murilo, Santi García and Gil Martins behind him; Murilo has a goal and an assist in his last four appearances.
Pinto was Vitória’s coach as recently as March, so Monday is his first meeting with the club since he left. Gil’s record in this fixture gives him little to build on, because they haven’t beaten Vitória since a 1-0 home win in January 2024.
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Vitoria Guimaraes: five goals against Maritimo, no points from four away games 
Vitória have played four league games away from home this season and lost all four, including 1-0 at Braga, 2-1 at Académico de Viseu on 12 September and 2-0 at Benfica on 11 October. They scored one goal across those three defeats.
Their home form is what keeps them clear of the bottom of the table. A 0-0 draw with Casa Pia, a 1-1 draw with Moreirense on 20 September and the 5-0 win over Marítimo all came in Guimarães, and the nine league games overall have produced ten goals scored and ten conceded.
Half of those ten goals came in one match. Without the Marítimo win, Vitória have scored five times in eight league games, which says more about their attack than the scoreline from 23 October does.
Jakupović should keep his place ahead of Alioune Ndoye after his two goals. He has scored twice in his last three appearances, Oumar Camara has one goal in the same run, and Gustavo Silva and Samu are expected to support them.
Margarido has three players to work around: Francisco Dias is unavailable, goalkeeper Gui is recovering from a serious knee problem, and Thiago Balieiro is a doubt after missing the last three matches, so Oliwier Zych continues in goal behind Strata, Borevković, Sidibé and Mendes.
Over 23 meetings Vitória lead this fixture ten wins to seven, with six draws, and those games have averaged 2.7 goals. The recent ones have been far tighter, with two goals in total across the last two.
Probable lineup Gil Vicente: Lucão; Esgaio, Elimbi, Buatu, Moreira; Lausen, Prioste; Murilo, Santi García, Gil Martins; Kaba
Probable lineup Vitoria Guimaraes: Zych; Strata, Borevković, Sidibé, Mendes; Nogueira, Doucet; Gustavo Silva, Samu, Camara; Jakupović
Free Football Prediction: Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (1.64)
Both sides’ numbers point towards a low-scoring game. Gil have scored eight and conceded seven in nine league matches, and the last four meetings between these clubs all ended with Vitória keeping a clean sheet, the last two producing a single goal between them.
The 5-0 against Marítimo is the obvious counter, and the full head-to-head average of 2.7 goals doesn’t help either. Those older meetings matter less to me than this season’s away output from Vitória, who scored once across their defeats at Braga, Académico de Viseu and Benfica.
With Espigares suspended and Gil’s attack averaging under a goal a game, I don’t see either side running away with this one. Under 2.5 goals at around 1.64 is the pick.
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