- 1 Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia: one goal each in Europe, and Plzen still without a point
- 2 Viktoria Plzen: 11th in the Chance Liga, but 5-1 winners over Red Star in their last home European tie
- 3 Levski Sofia: champions of Bulgaria, but one goal from two league-phase games
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia: one goal each in Europe, and Plzen still without a point 
Viktoria Plzen’s only Europa League goal this season came in the 90th minute of a game they were already losing. Denis Višinský scored from a corner at the Groupama Arena last Thursday, after Kristoffer Zachariassen had put Ferencvaros 2-0 up, and the 2-1 defeat left Radoslav Kováč’s side with nothing from two matches.
Levski Sofia aren’t in a much better spot. The Bulgarian champions are 25th with one point, taken from a 1-1 draw at NEC Nijmegen on 15 October, and they’ve also scored once in the competition. Plzen sit in the bottom six with a goal difference of minus four.
With five rounds still to come after this one, defeat on Thursday would leave either club on one point or fewer from three games. Kick-off at the Doosan Arena is 20:00 UK time.
Plzen’s home numbers favour them: they average 2.0 goals and 15.1 shots per game in front of their own supporters this season, and the best night of their European campaign came here in August, when they followed a 3-0 defeat in Belgrade by beating Red Star 5-1 in the return leg.
Levski’s away profile is built on control instead, with 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game on the road and 61.4% possession, and three of their last five away matches have finished with two goals or fewer. We think that patient, possession-first approach runs into trouble against a home side that shoots this often.
Viktoria Plzen: 11th in the Chance Liga, but 5-1 winners over Red Star in their last home European tie 
Domestic form has been patchy. Plzen lost to Olomouc and Slavia Praha, drew 0-0 with Hradec Králové and then beat Mladá Boleslav 3-0 on 10 October, a run that left them 11th in the Chance Liga before the trip to Budapest.
The Ferencvaros game showed both sides of this team. Plzen had seven shots on target to the hosts’ six, plus 11 off target, and Amar Memić forced a save from Dániel Radnóti inside ten minutes. They still fell behind four minutes after half-time and conceded a penalty with ten to play once VAR ruled Veljko Birmančević onside.
The 3-0 home loss to Union Saint-Gilloise on 17 September is the result that sticks out. It came against a Union side that went on to draw 1-1 with Real Sociedad on matchday two, so Plzen weren’t exposed by a weak opponent.
Václav Jemelka remains injured and isn’t expected back before 31 October. Dominik Ťapaj kept his place in goal in Budapest, and Prince Kwabena Adu, Tomáš Ladra and Christophe Kabongo are the likely front three.
Kováč was booked on the touchline in stoppage time last week. Plzen host Pardubice on Sunday and visit Vysočina Jihlava in the cup on 28 October, though we’d expect him to name his strongest available side for this one.
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Levski Sofia: champions of Bulgaria, but one goal from two league-phase games 
Julio Velázquez’s side reached this stage the hard way. They won 1-0 at Kairat in Champions League qualifying on 11 August, then drew 0-0 at home with AEK Athens before losing the second leg 4-0 in Athens on 26 August.
That night in Athens is the clearest guide to how Levski cope away from home against a team willing to commit players forward. They had kept a clean sheet in the first leg in Sofia and still conceded four in the return.
In the league phase they lost 1-0 at home to Red Bull Salzburg on 17 September, then drew 1-1 in Nijmegen. Reinaldo gave them a first-half lead there, Tjaronn Chery equalised after a mistake by goalkeeper Svetoslav Vutsov, and substitute Oko-Flex missed a good chance to win it late on.
In the Bulgarian league, Levski won 2-0 at Cherno More on 11 October, but they lost 4-2 at home to CSKA Sofia on 9 September and drew 0-0 at Botev Vratsa four days later. In Europe, Reinaldo’s strike in Nijmegen is still the only goal Levski have scored in the league phase.
The likely XI keeps Vutsov in goal behind Maicon, Christian Makoun, Kristian Dimitrov and Aldair, with Reinaldo on the left of a front three alongside Juan Perea and Everton Bala. Levski are away at Arda Kardzhali on Saturday, two days after this match.
Probable lineup Viktoria Plzen: Ťapaj; Doski, Dweh, Vavro; Memić, Pirgić, Hrošovský, Panoš; Kabongo, Ladra, Adu
Probable lineup Levski Sofia: Vutsov; Maicon, Makoun, Dimitrov, Aldair; Serginho, Trdin, Soula; Reinaldo, Perea, Everton Bala
Free Europa League Prediction: Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia
Our prediction: Viktoria Plzen to win (1.69)
Plzen average two goals a game at home and had 18 shots in Budapest last week, against a side unbeaten in Europe. Levski have scored once in two league-phase games, and the last time they went away to a team that attacked them in numbers, AEK Athens won 4-0.
The case against is Levski’s away record: 0.6 goals conceded per game on the road, and a draw in Nijmegen that came within a goalkeeping error of being a win. Plzen’s own defence has let in five in two European games, so we don’t expect a clean sheet.
We still back the home side at 1.69. Plzen create far more than Levski do, they’re playing at the ground where they beat Red Star 5-1 two months ago, and a third defeat in three would leave them pointless with five games left.
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