- 1 Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts: the league’s best defence, off a bye, against a front office in turmoil
- 2 Minnesota Vikings: opponents score on 25% of red-zone trips
- 3 Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones has thrown six interceptions and four touchdowns
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts: the league’s best defence, off a bye, against a front office in turmoil 
The Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard last Monday, nine years into the job. The decision came the morning after a 26-20 home defeat to Tennessee, a team that hadn’t won a game all season until it left Indianapolis with one.
That loss dropped Indianapolis to 2-4, and it set up the hardest trip on their schedule. Minnesota are 5-0, they’re coming off their bye, and they host the Colts at U.S. Bank Stadium at 1:00pm ET on Sunday, with the roof taking wind and rain out of the equation.
The Vikings’ record has been built almost entirely by their defence. They allow 12.8 points per game, the fewest in the NFL, and have conceded six touchdowns in five games. Their offence, by contrast, averages 21.8 points and 283.0 yards per game, 22nd and 27th in the league.
That split matters for how this game should be read. Minnesota have covered in four of five games, but only one of those five has gone over the total. They win by choking the opponent, not by running up the score.
The market has the Vikings as 6.5-point favourites with a total of 41.5, and neither number moved between Wednesday and Thursday. The Colts have gone over in four of their six games, which is the main argument for a higher-scoring afternoon.
The way I see it, the question this week isn’t really who wins. It’s whether an Indianapolis offence led by a struggling Daniel Jones can do enough against this defence to push the scoring past what Minnesota’s own attack usually produces.
Minnesota Vikings: opponents score on 25% of red-zone trips 
Kevin O’Connell’s defence leads the league in points allowed and in defensive EPA per play, and ranks second in total defence. Opponents have a 62.9 passer rating against them, the best mark in the NFL, and they allow 173.2 passing yards per game, third-fewest.
The red-zone and third-down numbers are what separate them. Teams convert 22.2% of their third downs against Minnesota and score touchdowns on just 25% of their trips inside the 20. They’ve also produced 10 takeaways and average 3.4 sacks per game.
Kyler Murray’s numbers are modest: 69 of 101 for 662 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in four games, with a passer rating of 84.7. His best outing came last time out, 24 of 30 for 229 yards and a touchdown without an interception in the 23-13 win over New Orleans.
The ground game carried that win. Aaron Jones ran 25 times for 113 yards and Minnesota finished with 153 rushing yards on 36 carries. Justin Jefferson caught six passes for 79 yards, but the Vikings have thrown for 835 yards all season, the second-lowest total in the league.
Jordan Mason is still on injured reserve with a fractured thumb, as are guard Donovan Jackson, centre Nick Samac and tight end Josh Oliver. Three of those four absences are blockers, and the offence has moved the ball in short gains on the ground rather than through the air.
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Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones has thrown six interceptions and four touchdowns 
Jones went 22 of 42 for 269 yards against Tennessee, with a touchdown, two interceptions and a passer rating of 60.5. That fits his season: 1,290 yards, four touchdowns, six interceptions and a 71.1 rating, the third-lowest among starters, and a passing offence sitting in the bottom ten.
Jonathan Taylor is the reliable part of this attack. He ran 21 times for 94 yards against the Titans, and Indianapolis average 111.5 rushing yards per game. Keenan Allen led the receivers last week with eight catches for 82 yards, with Alec Pierce on injured reserve.
The defence is the bigger concern for Shane Steichen. The Colts allow 27.3 points per game, 27th in the league, along with 122.5 rushing yards and 228.7 passing yards per game. Arden Key, who signed in March, has been on injured reserve since the London win over Washington.
That’s where the over case comes from. Indianapolis games have produced points at both ends, and four of the six have gone over. But those totals came against offences that could exploit a soft defence, which Minnesota’s, at 27th in yards per game, hasn’t shown it can.
The Colts are 3-3 against the spread and covered the one game this season in which they were 6.5-point underdogs or bigger. Against a defence allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game, though, scoring has to come from Taylor and from field goals.
Probable lineup Minnesota Vikings: QB Kyler Murray; RB Aaron Jones; WR Justin Jefferson (Jordan Mason, Donovan Jackson, Nick Samac and Josh Oliver on injured reserve)
Probable lineup Indianapolis Colts: QB Daniel Jones; RB Jonathan Taylor; WR Keenan Allen (Alec Pierce and Arden Key on injured reserve)
Free NFL Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts
Our prediction: Under 41.5 points (1.91)
Four of Minnesota’s five games have stayed under the total, and nothing about this matchup changes the pattern. The Vikings allow 12.8 points per game and score 21.8, so even a comfortable home win lands in the mid-30s on those averages.
The Colts’ overs are the honest argument against, and their defence can be beaten. But Minnesota rank 27th in yards per game and have the second-fewest passing yards in the league, so they’re poorly built to punish it quickly, especially with a game plan that leans on Aaron Jones.
Jones, meanwhile, faces the best pass defence in the league with six interceptions already on his record. I expect a Vikings win built on field position and a slow clock, and I’d play Under 41.5 at 1.91 rather than lay 6.5 points.
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