- 1 New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins: a winless team that hasn’t led for a single snap
- 2 New York Jets: a top-seven scoring defence and an offence that stalls in the red zone
- 3 Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis has two touchdowns and has been sacked 13 times
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins: a winless team that hasn’t led for a single snap 
Miami haven’t held a lead at any point this season. Five games in, they’re 0-5, with a point differential of minus 62, the worst in the league, and they’re one of only two teams still looking for a first win.
The schedule explains part of it. The Dolphins opened against San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cincinnati, and their best offensive day came in the last of those, a 31-24 defeat to the Bengals in Week 5. They’ve had the bye since, so Sunday’s trip to MetLife Stadium is their first game in a fortnight.
The Jets aren’t in great shape either. They’re 2-4 and third in the AFC East after a 26-19 defeat at New England, a game they trailed 17-3 at half-time before outscoring the Patriots 16-9 after the break. Two weeks earlier they’d beaten Cleveland at home, but they still haven’t managed back-to-back wins.
So this is a game between the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offence, New York at 18.7 points per game, and its 31st, Miami at 14.0. That’s why the total sits at 39.5, and why the line has barely moved off the Jets -4.5 it opened at, touching 3.5 and 5.5 before settling back.
The one thing that complicates the picture is the head-to-head. Miami have won eight of the last ten meetings, including both in 2025, and they’re 6-3-1 against the spread in this series since the 2021-22 season. Five of the last six meetings also went over the total.
Kickoff is at 1:00pm ET on CBS. I’d treat the history with some caution, because neither roster looks much like the ones that built it, and the 2026 numbers point the other way.
New York Jets: a top-seven scoring defence and an offence that stalls in the red zone 
Aaron Glenn’s defence is the reason the Jets are favoured. They allow 20.3 points per game, seventh in the NFL, and 185 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest. Against a quarterback completing 56.2% of his passes, that pass defence should have plenty of room to sit on short routes.
The offence is where the trouble starts. In Foxborough the Jets went 0 for 3 in the red zone and converted three of ten third downs. Glenn has called finishing drives a must-fix, and he has a point: 252 passing yards and a 48-yard touchdown weren’t enough to win because the short-field possessions came away empty.
Geno Smith has been careful with the ball, seven touchdowns against one interception, and that interception at New England was his first of the season. The protection hasn’t helped him: he’s been sacked 19 times over the last five games, and Dylan Parham missed the Patriots game.
Omar Cooper Jr. gives the passing game something new. The rookie from Indiana came back from an ankle sprain that had kept him out since Week 1 and caught six passes for 103 yards, including his first career touchdown, on an 82% route share.
Breece Hall is the question mark. He missed the New England game and didn’t practise on Wednesday, so Braelon Allen, who ran 17 times for 78 yards last week, could carry the load again. Adonai Mitchell and edge rusher Joseph Ossai also missed Week 6.
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Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis has two touchdowns and has been sacked 13 times 
Jeff Hafley’s quarterback is the clearest problem. Malik Willis has thrown for 849 yards with two touchdowns, four interceptions and a 56.2% completion rate, and he’s been sacked 13 times. Hafley says Willis should be good to go after a minor issue in practice during the bye week.
The passing game ranks 31st in the league, and total offence 28th. Miami have scored 13 points or fewer in four of their five games, which makes the 24 they put up against Cincinnati look like an outlier rather than a turning point.
The running game has shown more. Ollie Gordon II, in his second season, has 188 rushing yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. That’s the version of Miami that could keep this close, controlling the ball and keeping Willis out of obvious passing downs.
Defensively, the numbers are hard to defend. Opponents have completed 76.6% of their passes against Miami with 11 passing touchdowns, and the pass rush has four sacks in five games. Against a Jets line that has let Smith get hit 19 times, that lack of pressure matters more than usual.
Caleb Douglas is questionable with an ankle injury after missing the last three games, though he was limited in practice on Monday. Miami’s only cover of the season came as 9.5-point underdogs at Minnesota, and they’re 1-4 against the spread overall.
Probable lineup New York Jets: QB Geno Smith; RB Braelon Allen (Breece Hall uncertain); WR Omar Cooper Jr.; OL Dylan Parham uncertain; EDGE Joseph Ossai uncertain
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: QB Malik Willis; RB Ollie Gordon II; WR Caleb Douglas (questionable)
Free NFL Prediction: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Our prediction: New York Jets -4.5 (1.85)
The Jets have covered in four of six games this season. Miami have covered once in five, and they’ve done it without leading a game for a single snap, which tells us how rarely they’ve put an opponent under any scoreboard pressure.
The head-to-head record is the case for the Dolphins, and it’s a real one. But this Miami team relies on a quarterback completing 56.2% of his passes, against a Jets secondary allowing 185 yards per game, and its own pass defence has given up a 76.6% completion rate.
I’d lay the points with New York. The red-zone issues could keep the margin tighter than it should be, but a touchdown win is well within reach for the better defence at home. Jets -4.5, at 1.85.
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