- 1 Viking FK vs Bayern Munich: Norway’s champions-elect welcome a Bayern side that scores freely and concedes too
- 2 Viking FK: top of Norway, perfect at home, and fearless with it
- 3 Bayern Munich: nine wins from ten in the league phase, but five games out of eight without a clean sheet
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Viking FK vs Bayern Munich
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Viking FK vs Bayern Munich: Norway’s champions-elect welcome a Bayern side that scores freely and concedes too 
Eleven home games, eleven wins, and at least two goals scored in every single one of them. That’s Viking in Stavanger right now. On Tuesday night (21:00 Paris time), the run meets Bayern Munich.
It’s not complicated: nobody expects the Eliteserien leaders to win this. Bookmakers have Bayern at around 1.09, which is about as short as a Champions League away price gets. The interesting question isn’t who wins. It’s how many goals this game produces, and the numbers on both sides point to plenty.
Start with the hosts. Viking have kept only three clean sheets during that 11-game home run, and they’ve conceded 35 goals across 17 Champions League matches in their history. Their league-phase debut, a 3-1 defeat at Stuttgart on 9 September, was kinder than it looked: Stuttgart created four big chances, took 11 shots from inside the box and hit the woodwork for what would have been a fourth.
Now the visitors. Bayern opened their campaign with a 5-0 thrashing of Bodo/Glimt and have won nine of their last ten league-phase games. Yet Vincent Kompany’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of their eight matches this season, and they’ve conceded in four of their five away games. Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Augsburg, their second non-win in five Bundesliga outings, was a reminder that this backline isn’t watertight.
So what happens when a home side that always scores meets an away side that always concedes, and that also happens to have Harry Kane?
The data paints a specific picture here. These clubs have never met before, but the profiles fit together neatly. Viking will have a go in front of their own crowd. Bayern will punish them for it.
Viking FK: top of Norway, perfect at home, and fearless with it 
53 points and top of the Eliteserien, level with Bodo/Glimt and ahead only on goal difference. Morten Jensen’s side have lost just once in their last ten outings, and that defeat came in Stuttgart. Seven wins in that stretch, including four straight domestic victories since the opening Champions League night.
The home record is what stands out. Eleven consecutive wins in Stavanger, two goals or more in each. That’s not luck. That’s a side that knows what it’s about on its own pitch.
Peter Christiansen is the man they’ll look to. Twelve goals and six assists in 21 league games this season, and he’ll lead the line alongside Erik Botheim in what’s expected to be a compact 4-4-2. Joe Bell and Kristoffer Askildsen should hold the middle, with Gianni Stensness and Henrik Saelebakke Falchener at centre-back.
The squad isn’t at full strength, though. Sondre Bjorshol, Nicholas D’Agostino, Andres Baertelsen, Veton Berisha and Martin Roseth are all unavailable. That thins out the options when legs start to tire in the last half hour, and against Bayern the last half hour is usually when the damage gets done.
Defensively, there’s no sugarcoating it. Three clean sheets in eleven home games and 35 conceded in 17 Champions League matches. Against this attack, that record is going to be tested hard.
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Bayern Munich: nine wins from ten in the league phase, but five games out of eight without a clean sheet 
Bayern haven’t lost a game this season. They also haven’t stopped conceding. Five of their eight matches in all competitions have ended without a clean sheet, and the 2-2 against Augsburg on Saturday raised fresh questions about Manuel Neuer, who has been error-prone in recent weeks.
On the road, though, this team is relentless. One defeat in their last 23 away games, 18 wins. This season they’ve scored 10 goals across five away fixtures, winning three, while conceding in four of them. The pattern is clear: Bayern travel, Bayern score, and the other side usually gets one too.
Jamal Musiala is out with a thigh injury and faces a spell on the sidelines. Ismael Saibari is expected to step into the number 10 role. It’s a loss, but hardly a crippling one when the front line still reads Michael Olise, Harry Kane and Luis Diaz.
Olise was the standout even in the Augsburg draw: five chances created, joint-most on the pitch, and a game-high four completed dribbles. Kane, as ever, is the guaranteed starter through the middle, with Joshua Kimmich dictating play from deep alongside Pavlovic.
Can Viking keep this attack quiet for 90 minutes? The numbers say no. Bayern have the firepower to put four past anyone in this competition, and they’ll be motivated to respond after dropping points domestically.
Probable lineup Viking FK: Ostbo; Heggheim, Stensness, Falchener, Haugen; Bjordal, Bell, Askildsen, Tripic; Christiansen, Botheim
Probable lineup Bayern Munich: Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Saibari, Diaz; Kane
Free Champions League Prediction: Viking FK vs Bayern Munich
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.50
A Bayern win at 1.09 offers nothing. The goals market is where the value sits, and the case builds from both sides. Viking have scored at least twice in 11 straight home games and have conceded 35 goals in 17 Champions League matches. Bayern have scored 10 times in five away games this season, conceded in four of them, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in five of their last eight.
Put those trends together and a scoreline like 1-4 or 2-3 looks far more likely than a tidy 0-2. Bayern’s 5-0 against Bodo/Glimt showed what this attack does to a Norwegian side that tries to play, and Viking won’t sit back on their own ground with that home record behind them.
Four goals or more at 1.50 is the pick. Kane, Olise and Diaz should do most of the work, and Viking’s own attack has enough about it to chip in.
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