- 1 RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: a perfect home record meets the Eredivisie’s most dangerous travellers
- 2 RB Leipzig: unbeatable at the Red Bull Arena, fragile everywhere else
- 3 PSV Eindhoven: six wins from seven, but an injury list that keeps growing
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: a perfect home record meets the Eredivisie’s most dangerous travellers 
Fourteen goals scored, zero conceded. That’s RB Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena this season, three games, three wins, and not a single shot finding the back of their net. Now set that next to their Champions League position: 32nd out of 36, with no points and a goal difference of minus three.
Both numbers are real. The question for Tuesday night (21:00 Paris time) is which one tells you more about this Leipzig side.
The data paints a specific picture here. Martin Demichelis’s team have been two different clubs depending on the postcode. At home, they’ve put six past Eintracht Frankfurt, five past Hamburger SV and three past Borussia Monchengladbach. Away from Leipzig, they’ve lost 3-1 at Werder Bremen, 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen and 4-1 at Como on matchday one. That’s three defeats in their last five games across all competitions, every one of them on the road.
PSV arrive with the opposite profile. Peter Bosz’s side have won six of their last seven and look completely at ease away from Eindhoven: four wins from their last five away matches, and all five of those games went over 2.5 goals. A 6-1 at Utrecht and a 3-1 at Ajax tell you what this team does when it gets going.
There’s a catch, though. PSV have already conceded 10 goals this season, and their injury list is long enough to fill a bench on its own. Is this the night their back line finally pays for it?
These two clubs have never met in a competitive fixture. No history, no baggage, just a straight read of current form. And the current form at this stadium points in one direction.
RB Leipzig: unbeatable at the Red Bull Arena, fragile everywhere else 
Saturday’s 6-0 demolition of Frankfurt wasn’t a one-off. It was the third clean sheet in three home league games, and the third time Leipzig have scored at least three at home this season. Five wins from their last five home matches, with four of those clearing 2.5 goals. That’s a side that knows what it’s about in front of its own fans.
The Como result still stings, mind. A 4-1 defeat in Italy on matchday one, and it’s the reason they sit bottom of the Champions League table. Leipzig finished third in the Bundesliga last season and are fifth now, two points behind Bayern Munich. Bottom of Europe doesn’t fit that profile.
Away, the numbers don’t bear close inspection. Their last three road trips: three defeats, nine goals conceded. The contrast takes some explaining, and nobody at the club has fully explained it yet.
The absentees are worth noting. Summer signing Marc Guiu is still nursing a muscle injury and needs a few more weeks. Assan Ouedraogo is out with a shoulder problem, and Christoph Baumgartner is unavailable with a thigh issue. That removes some depth in midfield, but the spine that dismantled Frankfurt is intact.
Expect Christoph Baumgartner’s absence to push more creative responsibility onto Nkunku and Gruda behind the front line, with Nusa providing width. It’s the same structure that’s been ripping through visiting defences for a month.
Home form is the whole case here. And it’s a strong one.
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PSV Eindhoven: six wins from seven, but an injury list that keeps growing 
Second in the Eredivisie with 19 points from eight matches, one behind leaders Feyenoord. On paper, PSV are flying. A 2-0 home win over Heerenveen sent them into the international break with their confidence intact, and their 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk on matchday one showed they can claw their way back into a game: they trailed before Sergino Dest equalised in the second half.
The trouble sits at the other end. Ten goals conceded already this season is a lot for a side with PSV’s resources, and the 3-2 defeat at FC Twente showed how quickly things can unravel when the press is broken.
The medical room makes for uncomfortable reading. Adamo Nagalo is out for the rest of the season. Kilian Sildillia and Alassane Plea are long-term absentees. Sam Lammers has a knock, Sami Ouaissa a hamstring problem and Jerdy Schouten a ligament injury. Paul Warner and Ricardo Pepi are expected back at some point this month, but not necessarily in time for Tuesday.
Losing Schouten hurts the most. He’s the player who usually screens the defence, and without him the midfield trio has less protection to offer a back four that’s already leaking.
Bosz won’t change his approach. His teams play high, they commit bodies forward, and they leave space behind. Against Eredivisie opposition, that’s fine. Against a Leipzig side that has scored 14 times in three home games, it’s a risk that can blow up quickly.
Credit where it’s due: PSV will score chances here. But they’ll concede them too.
Probable lineup RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt; Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; El Aynaoui, Seiwald; Nusa, Nkunku, Maksimovic; Gruda
Probable lineup PSV Eindhoven: Kovar; Kostic, Obispo, Geertruida, Dest; Fernandez, Sano, Til; Van Bommel, Man, Perisic
Free Champions League Prediction: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Our prediction: RB Leipzig to win @ 1.85
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for Leipzig. Three home games, three wins, 14 goals scored and none conceded, against a PSV defence that has already shipped 10 this season and is missing Schouten, Nagalo and Sildillia. Leipzig’s problems have all come on the road. Tuesday isn’t on the road.
There’s also the table to consider. Sitting 32nd with no points, Leipzig can ill afford another dropped result if they want a top-24 finish, and the Red Bull Arena is where they’ve looked most like the side that finished third in Germany last season. PSV’s away record deserves respect, but it was built in the Eredivisie, not against a Bundesliga attack in this kind of form.
At 1.85 the home win is the call. Goals at both ends wouldn’t surprise anyone given PSV’s attacking intent, but the side that’s been unbeatable in front of its own crowd should come out on top.
in your pocket.
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