- 1 Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils: Hellebuyck’s Devils against a 67.7% penalty kill
- 2 Vegas Golden Knights: 14 goals allowed in three defeats, then Adin Hill steadies it
- 3 New Jersey Devils: 34.1 shots for, under 24 against, and 6-1-0 in their last seven
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils: Hellebuyck’s Devils against a 67.7% penalty kill 
Connor Hellebuyck faced 17 shots in his first game for New Jersey on Tuesday and stopped 16 of them. The Devils won 5-1 in Dallas, ended the Stars’ five-game winning streak and picked up their fourth straight victory. It was Hellebuyck’s first NHL game of the season, after a suspension that began on 16 September and a trade from Winnipeg that wasn’t completed until last Friday.
New Jersey paid for him with Dawson Mercer, Nick Bjugstad, Nico Daws, the rights to Alexander Command, a 2029 second-round pick and a 2027 seventh. One game in, the return looks like what the Devils were after: a team that already took plenty of shots now has a goaltender behind it who doesn’t need to make 35 saves a night.
The trip continues in Colorado on Wednesday and ends at T-Mobile Arena on Friday 30 October, with an early puck drop at 6:00pm ET, 3:00pm in Las Vegas. Vegas will have had three days off by then, after a 4-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday that ended a three-game losing streak.
We think the special teams decide this one. Vegas has allowed a power-play goal in six straight games, and its penalty kill was working at 67.7% before the Ottawa win, which is a number that tends to cost a team points against anyone with a functioning power play.
The Golden Knights also have a goaltending question. Carter Hart was hurt at Tuesday’s morning skate and didn’t dress, and the club hasn’t said what the injury is. Adin Hill made 25 saves in his place, and he’s likely to start again on Friday unless Hart is cleared.
Vegas Golden Knights: 14 goals allowed in three defeats, then Adin Hill steadies it 
Vegas lost 6-2 to Tampa Bay, 6-2 in St. Louis and 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. The Golden Knights scored five goals in those three games and allowed 14, which turned a strong October start into a stretch of real concern before Tuesday’s game.
The Ottawa win was tighter than the 4-1 score. Shane Pinto tied it on the power play 34 seconds into the third period, and it took Raphael Lavoie’s first NHL goal, in his 27th game, to put Vegas back in front about eight minutes later. William Karlsson and Jack Eichel added empty-netters.
Eichel is the reason this team scores. He came into Tuesday with six goals and 13 assists in 13 games, tied for fifth in the league scoring race, and Mark Stone had eight goals and seven assists. Vegas had averaged 3.54 goals a game with a 24.4% power play before the Ottawa game.
Mitch Marner, who had 12 points in 11 games, sat out Tuesday and Parker Wotherspoon is also out. Without Marner the Golden Knights leaned on depth scoring against Ottawa: Braeden Bowman’s power-play goal came with 11 seconds left in the second period, off a rebound from an Ivan Barbashev shot.
Hill was 4-1-0 with a 2.96 GAA and an .882 save percentage before Tuesday, and he stopped a short-handed breakaway from Ridley Greig in the third. Hart had gone 4-3-1 with a 2.76 GAA and .889. Neither number suggests a goaltender who will steal a game against a team taking 34 shots a night.
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New Jersey Devils: 34.1 shots for, under 24 against, and 6-1-0 in their last seven 
New Jersey is 8-4-0, has won four in a row and is 6-1-0 over its last seven games. Across the winning streak the Devils have scored 16 goals and allowed six. Those results line up with the underlying shot numbers, which we trust more than any streak.
The Devils average 34.1 shots per game and allow just under 24. That’s a gap of about ten shots a night, and in Dallas it showed early: New Jersey led 22-11 on shots after two periods and 3-0 on the scoreboard before Justin Hryckowian got the Stars on the board at 16:08 of the second.
Nico Hischier scored twice in that game, the first 2:41 in on a two-on-one with Timo Meier and the second 38 seconds into the second period. Jesper Boqvist, Luke Hughes and Jack Hughes scored the others. Jack Hughes leads the team with 12 points and nine assists, Jesper Bratt has 10, and Arseny Gritsyuk leads in goals with six.
The team’s goals-against average of 2.91 came almost entirely before Hellebuyck arrived. Allowing fewer than 24 shots a game and still conceding nearly three goals pointed to the goaltending, and that’s the exact hole the trade was meant to fill. Seamus Casey remains on injured reserve.
The one complication is Wednesday in Denver, where New Jersey is a road underdog at +154 against a Colorado team listed at -185. A heavy game at altitude, followed by a flight and an afternoon puck drop, is a schedule we’ve seen catch teams out. The Devils still get Thursday off before Friday.
Probable lineup Vegas Golden Knights: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New Jersey Devils: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils
Our prediction: New Jersey Devils to win (moneyline)
We’re backing the Devils. They take about ten more shots than they allow, they’ve scored 16 goals in their last four games, and they now have a goaltender who allowed one goal on 17 shots in his debut. Vegas has allowed 14 goals in three of its last four games.
The special teams numbers point the same way. A Vegas penalty kill at 67.7% that has given up a power-play goal in six straight games is facing a Devils attack averaging 3.27 goals a game, and Vegas may again be without Marner and with Hart unavailable.
The case for Vegas rests on rest and Eichel. The Golden Knights will have had three days off, and Eichel is producing at nearly a point and a half a night. We’d still rather be with the team whose shot and goaltending numbers are both moving the right way.
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