Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken – Free NHL Prediction

Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken: a 6-1 opener, then a month that changed both teams

Seattle opened its season at the Scotiabank Saddledome on 1 October and won 6-1. Joey Daccord made 24 saves and lost his shutout late in the third, and five different Kraken players scored: Vince Dunn, Frederick Gaudreau, Chandler Stephenson, Matty Beniers and Kaapo Kakko.

The rematch is in the same building on Friday 30 October, puck drop at 8:00pm ET. The two teams have taken very different routes to get there, and we think the four weeks in between tell us more than the opener does.

Calgary is 5-6-0 and has won four straight, all on a 4-0-0 homestand that ended with a 5-2 win over Toronto on Monday. Over those four games the Flames scored 14 goals and allowed six. They play in Edmonton on Wednesday, listed at +180, before coming home.

Seattle is 7-4-1, but its last three defeats have come by a combined 17 goals to 7. The most recent was a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota on Saturday, and the Kraken host Toronto on Wednesday before the trip to Calgary.

We’d weigh the last two weeks far more heavily than the opening night. The Flames’ goaltending has changed, a 20-year-old forward has taken over the scoresheet, and Seattle’s defensive numbers have moved in the wrong direction since that 6-1 night.

Calgary Flames: four straight starts won by Devin Cooley, and a 20-year-old on a run

Devin Cooley made 26 saves against Toronto and has won four straight starts. That’s the biggest change from the opener, when Dustin Wolf was in net for the 6-1 defeat. Calgary still allows 3.73 goals a game across the season, but most of that damage came before the homestand.

Matvei Gridin had two goals and an assist against the Leafs, the first three-point game of his NHL career. The 28th overall pick in 2024 had three goals and two assists in his previous two games, and he’s the first Flames player aged 20 or younger with a three-point game since Matthew Tkachuk in December 2018.

Gridin’s second goal came on the power play 25 seconds into the second period and made it 3-0. Mikael Backlund scored the other goal in that opening stretch in his first game back after missing two with an upper-body injury, and the point was his 609th for the club, tying Johnny Gaudreau for fifth on the franchise list.

Joel Farabee leads the team with 11 points and eight assists, and Matt Coronato has 10. Farabee and Martin Pospisil both scored empty-netters late on Monday. Ryan Huska said after the game that his team was playing a simpler style and getting more chances from it, and the 14 goals in four games back him up.

Jonathan Huberdeau remains on injured reserve with a return listed for November, and Samuel Honzek is also on IR. Calgary averages 29.2 shots a game and allows 30.3, so this isn’t a team that controls games. It’s been getting saves and finishing its chances, and both have held for two weeks.

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Seattle Kraken: 26.2 shots for, 31.8 against, and four straight Daccord starts with three or more allowed

Seattle has allowed 42 goals in 12 games, 3.5 per game. It scores 3.58, so the record has held up at 7-4-1, but the shot numbers are a warning: the Kraken take 26.2 shots a game and allow 31.8. A team getting outshot by more than five a night usually needs its goaltender to win games for it.

Daccord hasn’t been able to do that lately. Saturday’s 5-1 loss to Minnesota was his fourth straight start allowing at least three goals, and the first one came 26 seconds in, when Kirill Kaprizov went in alone on a breakaway. Blake Coleman, Olli Maatta and Joel Eriksson Ek added goals before Seattle pulled him with 7:05 left.

The penalty kill has struggled early in the year, and Berkly Catton’s first-period power-play goal was the only Seattle score on Saturday. Catton has nine points, the same as Stephenson, Brandon Montour and Jordan Eberle. Kakko leads the team with 10 points and eight assists, and Gaudreau has a team-high six goals.

The injury list is long. Jared McCann is on injured reserve with a return listed for 2 January, Ryan Lindgren for 19 November, and Jacob Melanson and Jake O’Brien are also out.

Seattle hosts Toronto on Wednesday, where it’s listed as a +100 underdog, then travels. Both teams will have had one day off before Friday, so neither side has a rest edge. What separates them is the direction each defensive record has taken since the start of October.

Probable lineup Calgary Flames: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Seattle Kraken: Not announced at time of publication

Free NHL Prediction: Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken

Our prediction: Calgary Flames to win (moneyline)

We’re backing Calgary at home. The Flames have won four straight at the Saddledome, scoring 14 and allowing six, and Cooley has won each of his last four starts. Seattle has allowed 17 goals in its last three defeats and is being outshot by more than five a game.

The opener is the obvious point against us. Seattle won 6-1 in this building four weeks ago, and the Kraken still score more per game than Calgary does. That game came with Wolf in net and before Gridin’s run of five goals and eight points in three games.

With McCann and Lindgren out, Daccord on a run of four starts with three or more conceded, and a Calgary team playing what its coach calls a simpler game, we think the Flames take the season series level at one apiece.

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