- 1 RC Vannes vs Union Bordeaux-Begles: bottom against second, with UBB short at fly-half
- 2 RC Vannes: one win in eight, and the division’s weakest home record
- 3 Union Bordeaux-Begles: four straight wins, and no Jalibert, Reus, Lucu or Bielle-Biarrey
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: RC Vannes vs Union Bordeaux-Begles
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
RC Vannes vs Union Bordeaux-Begles: bottom against second, with UBB short at fly-half 
Bordeaux-Begles have lost both of their first-choice fly-halves. Matthieu Jalibert is out with a right quadriceps injury, and Hugo Reus fractured his wrist in the 19-14 win over Bayonne, which leaves Joseph Laharrague, 20, as the only specialist available for Sunday’s trip to Vannes.
That news explains a price that would otherwise make little sense. Vannes are last in the Top 14 and UBB are second, one point behind the leaders, yet the home side are 1.60 and the visitors 2.35.
The game has also changed address. Vannes moved it to the Stade de la Beaujoire in Nantes, a 35,322-seat ground that sold out in under an hour when tickets went on sale on 21 October. Kick-off is Sunday 8 November at 14:00 UK time, moved from the Saturday at the request of the prefecture because of police availability.
Vannes have done this once already, taking Toulouse to Roazhon Park in Rennes in September. They lost that game, and a big crowd in a borrowed stadium hasn’t yet brought them a result.
The stakes differ for the two clubs. Vannes sit six points behind 13th place, the spot that gives a relegation play-off. UBB have four straight wins and, after this game, a break until they host Montpellier on 28 November.
RC Vannes: one win in eight, and the division’s weakest home record 
Vannes lost their first six league games before beating Clermont 27-26 at La Rabine on 24 October, a win settled by Anthony Bouthier’s conversion at 80 minutes. The next week they lost 48-25 at Lyon.
That Clermont win is still their only one. They’ve also lost home games to Montpellier, Toulouse and Pau, and the last of those finished 43-40 on 3 October. Their home record is the worst in the league.
The points difference shows how much of the damage has come in defence. Before Saturday’s round of fixtures Vannes stood at minus 81, the worst figure in the Top 14, with Castres just above them on minus 78.
What they do have is a recent habit of scoring. The 40 against Pau, 27 against Clermont and 25 at Lyon all show an attack that can stay in a game, and Bouthier’s goal-kicking decided the one match they’ve won.
Team news hadn’t been published at the time of writing. Their selection will show whether they’ve lost anyone to the international window, but the same window is doing far more harm to the visitors.
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Union Bordeaux-Begles: four straight wins, and no Jalibert, Reus, Lucu or Bielle-Biarrey 
UBB’s run of four wins covers Lyon (51-28 at home), Clermont away, La Rochelle away (25-19) and Bayonne (19-14). Their away record ranks sixth in the league, two wins and two defeats, with the losses at Toulouse and Perpignan.
Laharrague was recalled from his loan at Beziers on 22 October, after scoring 48 points in five starts there, two tries among them. He played 11 Top 14 games last season, four as a starter, so this won’t be a debut, though running an attack in front of 35,000 is a different job.
The alternative is Arthur Retiere, who started at fly-half in the win at Clermont on 10 October and played scrum-half against Bayonne. Moving him to 10 would open a place at nine, where Valentin Hutteau is the option, and Maxime Lucu is away on international duty.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey is away with France as well, so UBB travel without their best finisher. He scored twice in the 36-36 draw at Gloucester on 16 October, and his absence takes a lot of pace out of the back three.
The off-field news hasn’t helped either. The club confirmed this week that attack coach Noel McNamara will leave at the end of the season to become head coach of Leinster. Still, this is a squad that has kept winning through Jalibert’s six-week absence, and the 25-19 at La Rochelle came without him.
Probable lineup RC Vannes: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Union Bordeaux-Begles: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: RC Vannes vs Union Bordeaux-Begles
Our prediction: Union Bordeaux-Begles to win at 2.35
Vannes are 1.60 and UBB 2.35, with the draw at 23.00. I understand the logic of that market: a home crowd, a depleted visiting half-back pairing and a Vannes attack that has put 25 or more on three recent opponents.
I can’t get past the rest of the evidence. Vannes have one win from eight and the league’s worst home record, and UBB have won four in a row, two of them away, with Reus at 10 for most of that run but Jalibert missing throughout.
Laharrague is the real risk here, and he may need time. At 2.35 the price already covers that risk, and a side second in the table is worth backing against the side in last place.
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