- 1 FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: 50 goals conceded between two sides one point apart
- 2 FC Utrecht: three home games unbeaten, and a defence that keeps giving goals away
- 3 NEC Nijmegen: eight league games without a win, and seven straight matches conceding
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: 50 goals conceded between two sides one point apart 
FC Utrecht have conceded 31 goals in 11 Eredivisie games, an average of 2.82 a match, and NEC Nijmegen have let in 19. Add them together and the two sides meeting at Stadion Galgenwaard on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 19:00 UK time, have shipped 50 league goals between them in 22 matches.
The table explains why this game matters to both. Utrecht are 13th on 12 points and NEC are 14th on 11, so the winner moves clear of the other and the loser drops towards a part of the division neither club expected to be in by November.
The two sides arrive from very different weeks. Utrecht lost 4-2 at Telstar last Sunday and their head coach, Anthony Correia, was left angry with what he saw. NEC beat Omonia Nicosia 3-1 in the Europa League on Thursday night, which was a good result, but it also means they’ve had three days to recover.
Recent meetings lean towards the home side. Utrecht have won four of the last six against NEC, including a 1-0 win at the Galgenwaard last November and a 3-1 win in Nijmegen on 11 February, a game they led 2-0 at half-time.
The ground is sold out, and before kick-off the club will give former defenders Mike van der Hoorn and Nick Viergever a lap of honour. The market makes Utrecht slight favourites at 2.45, with the draw at 3.80 and NEC at 2.65.
FC Utrecht: three home games unbeaten, and a defence that keeps giving goals away 
Correia took over from the retired Ron Jans in July, and his first 11 league games have brought three wins, three draws and five defeats. The side has scored 19 goals, which is respectable for a team in 13th, but the defensive record is what’s holding it back.
The 4-2 at Telstar started with a goalkeeping error. Sergio Padt fumbled a shot that let Tyrone Owusu score in the eighth minute, Abdelnour Soualhia and Nokkvi Thorisson added goals in the 25th and 44th minutes, and Utrecht went in 3-1 down. Correia changed things after 37 minutes, taking off Siebe Horemans and Arthur Zagre for Angel Alarcon and Per Kloosterboer.
The changes worked for a while. Alarcon headed in a Marius Broholm cross and Yoann Cathline made it 3-2 a minute after the restart, but Ar’Jany Martha finished a counter-attack on 59 minutes to seal it. Matisse Didden said afterwards that Correia was furious at half-time, and the coach admitted the flat second half of the 1-0 cup win at Kozakken Boys on 29 October had carried over.
Home form is a different matter. Utrecht are unbeaten in three games at the Galgenwaard, beating Willem II 3-1 on 11 October and drawing 1-1 with PEC Zwolle on 24 October thanks to Sem van Duijn’s stoppage-time goal. Artem Stepanov leads the squad with five league goals and has just come back from five weeks out; he replaced Oualid Agougil at half-time at Telstar.
The absences are mostly long-term. Victor Jensen, Alonzo Engwanda, Kevin Paredes, Miliano Jonathans and Noah Ohio are all out, Ohio with a cruciate ligament injury until early January, while Vasilios Barkas is close to a return in goal and Padt is expected to keep his place for now.
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NEC Nijmegen: eight league games without a win, and seven straight matches conceding 
Dick Schreuder’s side have two wins, five draws and four defeats in the league, and they haven’t won any of their last eight Eredivisie games. Three of those draws came in October: 1-1 at Ajax, then 2-2 at home to both Fortuna Sittard and Groningen.
The defeat at Heerenveen on 31 October followed a pattern NEC have shown all autumn. NEC had more than 60% of the ball and hit the woodwork twice through Kevin Kers and Kaj Sierhuis, but managed only two shots on target, and Dylan Vente’s second-half goal won it 1-0 for the home side.
Europe has been kinder. A 4-2 win at Dinamo Zagreb was followed by Thursday’s 3-1 win over Omonia, where NEC fell behind to Lois Diony’s goal before Bryan Linssen headed in a Tjaronn Chery corner, Clement Bischoff scored from a rebound after a Dusan Tadic shot was saved and Linssen added a third. They’re 12th in the Europa League table on seven points.
The trouble is that the defence hasn’t held up in either competition. NEC have conceded in each of their last seven league and European matches, and Schreuder has said he’s making more defensive substitutions this season because of the fitness of his defenders.
That problem may be worse on Sunday. Perr Schuurs went off around the 20th minute against Omonia and is a doubt, Tobias Storm has a slight hamstring problem, Bram Nuytinck has no return date after ankle surgery and Dennis Geiger isn’t fit. Chery, with four league goals and two assists, and Linssen remain the main sources of goals, and Tadic is back from a calf injury.
Probable lineup FC Utrecht: Padt; Horemans, Didden, Panayiotou, Kloosterboer; Van Overeem, De Wit, Broholm, Cathline, Alarcon; Stepanov
Probable lineup NEC Nijmegen: Crettaz; Bras, Storm, Kaplan; Nejasmic, Bischoff, Lebreton, Monteiro, Thomas; Chery, Linssen
Free Football Prediction: FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
Our prediction: FC Utrecht to win at 2.45
Utrecht’s defence is the reason this price isn’t shorter, and there’s no getting round 31 goals conceded in 11 games. But NEC’s back line is in worse physical shape for this one, with Schuurs and Storm doubtful, Nuytinck out and only three days since a European night, and they’ve conceded in seven straight matches.
I’d also weigh where the game is played. Utrecht haven’t lost in three at the Galgenwaard, they’ve won four of the last six meetings with NEC, and Correia has a squad that has scored twice or more in three of its last four league games, with Stepanov now back from injury.
NEC’s draws make a share of the points possible, but a side that hasn’t won in eight league games and keeps falling behind has to chase games, and chasing against a team that scores as often as Utrecht leaves space behind. At 2.45, the home win is where we’d go.
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