- 1 Troyes vs Marseille: two sides in the drop zone, only one with a squad built for Europe
- 2 Troyes: ten goals conceded in three games and two full-backs missing
- 3 Marseille: six straight defeats and an injury list that keeps growing
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Marseille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Troyes vs Marseille: two sides in the drop zone, only one with a squad built for Europe 
Sixteenth against seventeenth. Nobody expected Troyes against Marseille to be a relegation scrap in October, but that’s exactly what closes matchday six of Ligue 1 on Sunday night.
Kick-off at the Stade de l’Aube is at 20:45 Paris time on Sunday 11 October. Both clubs went into the international break inside the bottom three, and both need a reaction.
Marseille’s situation is the stranger one. A club that started the season talking about Europe has three points from five games and six straight defeats in all matches, friendly included. Bruno Genesio arrived in the summer to stabilise things. It’s gone the other way.
Troyes, at least, have the excuse of being newly promoted. They started brightly with a 2-1 win at Lorient and a goalless draw with Paris FC, then fell apart: beaten 6-2 by Strasbourg, then 2-0 at Lille and 2-0 at Angers. Ten goals conceded in three games tells you everything you need to know about where their problems are.
History favours the visitors heavily. In ten meetings on record, Troyes have beaten Marseille once. OM have won seven, including the last two, 2-0 in Troyes and 3-1 at the Velodrome in 2023.
The table adds its own pressure. A defeat for either side would leave them looking up at a growing gap to safety before the rest of October even gets going. For Troyes, that’s a familiar fight. For Marseille, it’s something nobody at the club planned for in August.
So which crisis is deeper? Marseille’s injury list is long, but the gap in quality between the two squads is still significant. That matters more than form in a game like this.
Troyes: ten goals conceded in three games and two full-backs missing 
Strasbourg put six past them. Lille and Angers both won 2-0 without much trouble. Troyes have the second-worst defence in Ligue 1, and the way they’ve been conceding doesn’t bear close inspection.
The trouble is the flanks. Full-backs Boura and Titi are both out for several more weeks, and Ouzenadji, who’s been filling in on the left, picked up a knock with Algeria’s Under-23s and is a doubt. That leaves Monfray and Diaz in the middle with very little protection on either side. Against a team with wide runners, that’s a real worry.
Going forward, it’s thin. Le Douaron has taken the starting spot up front with one goal, pushing Ripart, also on one, to the bench. Winger Ifnaoui missed the last two games and remains uncertain.
There was one small positive over the break. In a friendly against Dijon, a reshuffled Troyes side came back from two goals down to draw 2-2. It’s not much. But it’s the first time in a month they’ve shown any fight after going behind.
The numbers since the opening fortnight are stark. Three games, zero points, two goals scored, ten conceded. A promoted side can survive a bad patch, but not one where the back line keeps giving away two or more every week.
They’ll have the home crowd, and they’ll know Marseille are fragile. Is that enough to hold out for 90 minutes? On what we’ve seen since the end of August, probably not.
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Marseille: six straight defeats and an injury list that keeps growing 
The losing run started in Ligue 1 and spread everywhere. A 3-2 home defeat to Paris FC, 1-0 at Rennes, a 4-1 beating at Besiktas on their Europa League debut, then a 2-1 loss in the Classique against PSG just before the break. They even lost a friendly to Montpellier during the international window.
And the break made things worse. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg came back from Denmark duty injured and misses the trip, as does centre-back Derek Cornelius, whose hip injury rules him out until 2027. Captain Timothy Weah is suspended after his red card against PSG. Amine Gouiri, their top scorer with four league goals, picked up a thigh problem with Algeria and is a doubt, as are Amine Harit, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Himad Abdelli.
That’s a lot to absorb. Genesio will have to improvise in midfield, though Nnadi and Gomes are back. Out wide, youngster Abdallah has a league goal and another in the Europa League, while Igor Paixao still hasn’t been directly involved in a goal this season.
There’s another factor. Marseille play five matches in 15 days from Sunday, starting with Olympiakos in the Europa League on Thursday. Rotation is likely somewhere, but this is the one they can ill afford to lose.
Lose in Troyes and it’s seven in a row. The pressure on Genesio would become hard to manage. Even a weakened Marseille side should have enough to take advantage of the league’s second-leakiest defence.
Probable lineup Troyes: Beach; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Donkor; Diop, Mille; Diawara, Gomis, Picard; Le Douaron
Probable lineup Marseille: De Lange; Garcia, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson; Nnadi, Abdelli; Abdallah, Gomes, Paixao; Maupay
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Marseille
Our prediction: Marseille to win @ 1.80
Marseille’s run is ugly, but look at who they’ve lost to: PSG, Paris FC, who are third, Rennes and Besiktas. Troyes sit at a different level. They’ve conceded ten goals in their last three league games, they’re missing both first-choice full-backs, and their attack relies on two forwards with a goal each.
Even without Hojbjerg, Weah and possibly Gouiri, Marseille’s squad has far more quality than the home side’s. The head-to-head backs that up, with seven Marseille wins from ten meetings and just one Troyes victory.
A side this desperate for a result, facing one of the weakest defences in the division, is a good bet to finally end the slide. We’re backing Marseille to win at 1.80.
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