- 1 ASM Clermont vs Union Bordeaux-Begles: two sides who only win at home
- 2 ASM Clermont: 22 points conceded in two home games
- 3 Union Bordeaux-Begles: 38.4 points a game, but zero from two on the road
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: ASM Clermont vs Union Bordeaux-Begles
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
ASM Clermont vs Union Bordeaux-Begles: two sides who only win at home 
Two home wins, three away defeats. That’s Clermont’s season in one line. Swap the numbers around slightly and you’ve got Bordeaux-Begles: three wins at Chaban, two beatings on the road. Something has to give on Saturday night.
The sixth round of the Top 14 closes its Saturday programme at Marcel-Michelin, with kick-off at 21:00 Paris time. Clermont sit 8th. The Union are 4th. On paper, the visitors are the better side, and on the scoreboard at Chaban they’ve been frightening: 64-5 against Racing 92, 40-10 against Stade Francais, 51-28 against Lyon last weekend.
Then you look at what happens when they leave Bordeaux. A 48-12 hiding in Toulouse. A 38-25 defeat in Perpignan. Two trips, two losses, 86 points shipped. That’s not a blip. It’s a pattern.
Clermont aren’t exactly a fortress either, but they’ve done the hard yards in Auvergne. Stade Francais left with 16 points, Castres with six. The away record tells another story entirely, finished off by a 38-13 thumping at La Rochelle on 3 October.
So which version of each side turns up? History offers a clue. Clermont beat this opponent 34-19 at Marcel-Michelin in December 2025, and 32-27 on the same ground the season before. Bordeaux-Begles keep coming here and keep leaving with nothing. The bookmakers have Clermont at 1.53 and the Union at 2.50, and for once that price feels about right.
ASM Clermont: 22 points conceded in two home games 
Forget the three away defeats for a moment. At home, Clermont have conceded 22 points in two matches. Stade Francais were held to 16 in a 25-16 win, Castres managed just six in a 20-6 result. That’s a defence that knows what it’s about when the crowd is behind it.
The road is where it falls apart. A 40-36 loss at Lyon on opening weekend, 46-24 at Bayonne, then 38-13 at La Rochelle. Clermont average 29.2 points conceded across their five league games, and nearly all of that damage has come away from Auvergne.
That La Rochelle defeat stings. Twenty-five points the wrong side of the line.
But here’s the thing: it doesn’t change what Clermont are at Marcel-Michelin. Last season they finished with the eighth-best home record in the league, ten wins and three defeats. This season they’re two from two. The pattern holds, and there’s no sugarcoating the fact that this side plays like a different team in front of its own supporters.
Attack is the worry. Clermont score 23.6 points a game, well short of the 38.4 Bordeaux-Begles put up. They won’t win a shootout. They don’t need one, though. They need to drag this into a set-piece battle and keep the Union’s backs from running free in broken play, the way they shut Castres down a fortnight ago.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Union Bordeaux-Begles: 38.4 points a game, but zero from two on the road 
Six tries and a 39-7 lead at half-time. That’s how the Union dismantled Lyon at Chaban on 3 October before finishing 51-28. When this side gets going, few teams in the Top 14 score faster.
Three home wins have produced 155 points. That’s ridiculous output. 64-5 against Racing, 40-10 against Stade Francais, 51-28 against Lyon: it reads like a team running away with the league.
Away from home? It doesn’t bear close inspection. Toulouse put 48 on them. Perpignan beat them 38-25. Last season they had the sixth-best away record in the league with five wins from 13 trips, which isn’t terrible, but it isn’t the profile of a side you back blindly at a tricky ground.
There’s also the fly-half question. Matthieu Jalibert tore a quad against Stade Francais in September and was given four weeks out. Whether he’s fit, rusty or still in the stands makes a real difference to how this attack functions on a cold night in Auvergne.
The Union average 25.8 points conceded per game. Strip out the Chaban matches and that defence leaks badly. Can they suddenly fix it at Marcel-Michelin, a ground where they’ve lost their last two league visits? We’re not convinced.
Probable lineup ASM Clermont: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Union Bordeaux-Begles: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: ASM Clermont vs Union Bordeaux-Begles
Our prediction: ASM Clermont to win (1.53)
Clermont have won both home games this season and conceded 22 points doing it. Bordeaux-Begles have lost both away games and conceded 86. That’s the whole case, and it’s a strong one. Home form in the Top 14 counts for more than in almost any other league, and this fixture has gone Clermont’s way twice running at Marcel-Michelin.
The Union’s attack is the danger. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But those attacking numbers have been built on home soil, and Clermont’s defensive structure at home has been tight all season.
At 1.53, Clermont in 80 minutes is the call. Add the question mark over Jalibert and the visitors’ miserable record on the road, and the home side should edge it.
in your pocket.
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