- 1 Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: the division’s lowest scorers host a side on a two-game winning run
- 2 Tottenham Hotspur: no league win, four blanks in six and Bentancur banned for three games
- 3 Coventry City: ten conceded in the first four games, five scored in the last two
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: the division’s lowest scorers host a side on a two-game winning run 
Tottenham have scored three Premier League goals in six matches, the lowest total in the division. Coventry City scored four against Newcastle United in a single afternoon before the international break.
That gap frames Monday night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the two sides close Gameweek 7 with a 21:00 kick-off, Paris time. Roberto De Zerbi’s side are 19th on three points, with no wins, three draws and three defeats. Coventry are 14th on six points, three clear of the relegation zone, and both teams carry a goal difference of minus six.
We’d treat Tottenham’s scoring record as a finishing issue as much as a creative one. De Zerbi’s side have underperformed their expected goals by 3.9 this season, the third-worst figure in the league behind Sunderland (minus 4.3) and Nottingham Forest (minus 5.1). Chances are arriving. They aren’t going in.
Coventry’s season has two halves. Frank Lampard’s side lost their first four league games by an aggregate 10-0, then won 1-0 at the City Ground and beat Newcastle 4-1, with Jack Rudoni, Sidiki Cherif, Ellis Simms and Stephen Mfuni all on the scoresheet. Only Manchester City and Brighton also won in both Gameweek 5 and Gameweek 6. A third straight league win would be Coventry’s first such run since February 1998.
History sits firmly with the hosts. Tottenham have won the last five meetings in all competitions, 13-1 on aggregate, and the most recent was a 2-1 EFL Cup win in September 2024 settled by late goals from Brennan Johnson and Djed Spence.
The market prices Tottenham at 1.45, with the draw at 4.50 and Coventry at 7.00. We think that price leans on the badge rather than on six weeks of evidence, and our pick goes after the total instead.
Tottenham Hotspur: no league win, four blanks in six and Bentancur banned for three games 
Tottenham’s league run reads 3-0 defeat at Brentford, 2-0 home loss to Newcastle, 0-0 at Forest, 0-0 against Everton, a 3-2 home defeat to Aston Villa and a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. They’ve failed to score in four of those six matches.
The home record offers little relief. Three league games in north London have produced two Tottenham goals, both in the Villa defeat, and De Zerbi’s side also lost 3-1 at Liverpool in all competitions.
The Old Trafford point came at a cost. Dominic Solanke equalised late, but Rodrigo Bentancur was sent off for a headbutt on Luke Shaw and now serves a three-match ban. Lucas Bergvall and Sandro Tonali are expected to form the double pivot in his absence.
Mykhaylo Mudryk (ankle), Wilson Odobert (knee) and Xavi Simons (knee) are all out. Pedro Porro (thigh) and Dejan Kulusevski (knee) are doubts, and De Zerbi isn’t speaking to the media before the game, so there’s no official update on either.
James Maddison could make his first league start of the season in place of Conor Gallagher, behind Solanke and between Mohammed Kudus and Savio. That adds a passer to the final third. It doesn’t change the fact that this attack has produced three goals in 540 minutes of league football.
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Coventry City: ten conceded in the first four games, five scored in the last two 
Coventry’s opening month was brutal: 3-0 at Arsenal, 1-0 at home to Hull City, 1-0 at Manchester City and 5-0 at home to Brighton. The 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest that followed was their first Premier League victory in roughly 25 years.
The Newcastle win was the outlier in more ways than one. Four goals from four different scorers, against a side that had scored on every away trip until then. In their other five league matches, Coventry have scored once.
Away from home, the totals have stayed low. Their three league trips have produced five goals in all (3-0, 1-0 and 1-0), and two of those three games finished under 2.5 goals. Lampard’s side defend deep on the road and don’t commit numbers forward.
Taiwo Awoniyi is available again after a three-game ban, and Kaine Kesler-Hayden has been reported as recovered from a hamstring problem, although his status isn’t fully clear. Luke Woolfenden (knee), Aurele Amenda (calf), Josh Eccles (ankle) and Haji Wright (quad) are all out.
Lampard is expected to return to a back three, bringing Mfuni back in for Ephron Mason-Clark alongside Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas. Cherif should lead the line, with Awoniyi and Simms pushing for the same role.
Probable lineup Tottenham Hotspur: Kinsky; Gray, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Udogie; Bergvall, Tonali; Kudus, Maddison, Savio; Solanke
Probable lineup Coventry City: Rushworth; Mfuni, Thomas, Pinnock; Van Ewijk, Grimes, Yirenkyi, Dasilva; Thomas-Asante, Rudoni; Cherif
Free Premier League Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.38)
Four of Tottenham’s six league games have finished under 2.5 goals, and they average half a goal per match. Coventry’s three away league games averaged 1.7 goals in total. Neither side has shown it can sustain pressure in the final third for 90 minutes, and Tottenham are without Bentancur and possibly Porro and Kulusevski.
The bookmakers price Over 2.5 at 1.57, which assumes Tottenham’s expected goals finally convert. They might. But the xG gap has persisted for six matches, and Coventry’s deep block conceded once at the Etihad and not at all at the City Ground.
The 4-1 against Newcastle is the obvious counterweight, and we accept it. We still read it as an exception for a team that scored once in its other five league games. We expect something close to 1-0 or 1-1, and at 2.38 the Under is the better value than a 1.45 home win for a side still looking for its first league victory.
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