- 1 Malaga vs Real Sociedad: a winless bottom side against a team that keeps winning 3-2
- 2 Malaga: four draws, four defeats and four goals scored
- 3 Real Sociedad: 12 goals scored, 15 conceded, and winning anyway
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Malaga vs Real Sociedad: a winless bottom side against a team that keeps winning 3-2 
Here’s an odd one to start with. Real Sociedad have beaten Malaga once in their last eight league meetings, and that win, 2-0 at La Rosaleda, was back in January 2017. Since April 2018 the two haven’t played each other in the league at all, the only meeting being a 1-0 Real Sociedad win in the Copa del Rey in January 2024.
Across all 35 competitive meetings it’s 16 Real Sociedad wins, ten for Malaga and nine draws, so the overall picture isn’t that lopsided either. Old stuff, mostly, though. The Malaga side that walks out on Sunday evening (18:30 in Paris) is last in La Liga with four points from eight games and no win yet.
Real Sociedad sit sixth on 13. Four wins, and three of them by the same 3-2 scoreline, which tells you plenty about how they play: open, a bit reckless, usually with enough up top to get away with it. They’ve conceded 15, more than anyone else in the top 12.
Matarazzo’s side were in Belgium on Thursday night for a 1-1 draw with Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League. Pablo Marin is suspended, so he won’t be on the plane south.
Malaga, meanwhile, have had the whole week since the 1-1 with Espanyol. Juan Francisco Funes will be thankful for the rest but he knows what the real problem is: four league goals in eight games. You don’t climb off the bottom with that.
Malaga: four draws, four defeats and four goals scored 
Four-nil at the Bernabeu on the opening day set the tone. After that came 0-0 with Levante, 1-1 at Celta, a 3-1 home loss to Villarreal and 1-0 at Getafe before the Espanyol game. Not one match in which Malaga have scored twice.
Adrian Nino rescued that Espanyol draw in the 93rd minute. Nice for the dressing room, sure, but it took them until stoppage time to find a goal in front of their own fans.
At home it’s mostly been draws: three of them from four games at La Rosaleda, plus the Villarreal defeat, and three goals in total. Chupe, 22, should start up front again. He’s got one league goal.
Jens Cajuste is back from a thigh injury, which helps in midfield. Julen Lobete and Aaron Ochoa are still out though, Diego Murillo and Juan Cruz are touch and go, and without Lobete a lot falls on Larrubia and Lorenzo to get the ball to a centre-forward who’s been starved all season.
The back line deserves a bit of credit, oddly. Thirteen goals against looks bad, but four came in Madrid on day one. Strip that out and it’s nine in seven games, which is why Malaga keep turning up in tight, low-scoring draws.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Real Sociedad: 12 goals scored, 15 conceded, and winning anyway 
3-2 at Elche. 3-2 at Valencia. 3-2 at home to Deportivo La Coruna last weekend, with Jon Martin, Arsen Zakharyan and Goncalo Guedes the scorers that day. If you like clean sheets, look away.
When they’ve lost, they’ve been well beaten. Atletico Madrid won 3-0 at Anoeta and Bournemouth came there in the Europa League and won 2-1. Both of those defeats were at home, which makes Sunday’s trip less of a worry than it might look.
On the road, though, the record holds up: six points from four league trips. Malaga have four points from eight games in total, for comparison, and none of those came from a win. Twice on those away days Real Sociedad conceded two and still went and got a third.
Absentees? Quite a few. Marin’s banned after his red card, Jon Aramburu won’t be back before November (muscle), and Luken Beitia and Alvaro Odriozola are out as well. Hector Fort and Orri Oskarsson return from suspension, which plugs a couple of the holes.
Oyarzabal still hasn’t scored this season. It hasn’t mattered much, given how many others are chipping in. Expect a few changes after Thursday’s trip to Belgium; Matarazzo has the attacking bodies to rotate without the side dropping off too much.
Probable lineup Malaga: Herrero; Rafita, Calero, Recio, Salinas; Dotor, Martinez; Larrubia, Lorenzo, Nino; Chupe
Probable lineup Real Sociedad: Remiro; Fort, Sarr, Martin, Gomez; Herrera, Soler; Barrenetxea, Sucic, Guedes; Oyarzabal
Free La Liga Prediction: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Our prediction: Real Sociedad to win (odds 2.15)
Yes, Real Sociedad will leak chances. And yes, Malaga have drawn three of their four at home. But we can’t see Malaga scoring twice, something they haven’t done once all season, and Real Sociedad have put three past three of their last five league opponents.
Tired legs after Belgium? Maybe a little. We’d point you to September, when they lost to Bournemouth in midweek and then went to Valencia a few days later and won 3-2 anyway. Fort and Oskarsson being available again also takes the edge off the Marin ban. Some rotation is likely, but the squad coped with exactly this kind of week a month ago and still came away with three points.
A price of 2.15 has Real Sociedad as slightly less likely than not to win against the bottom club, 14 places below them. We’ll take that, and we’d have taken it at a shade shorter too. Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is a decent alternative (their last three league wins all had five goals in them), but our pick is the away win, 1-2.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Malaga and Real Sociedad on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply